18.2.04

EFFICIENT EXPECTATION OF A NEGATIVE RESULT? Tyler at Marginal Revolution points to some recent research (a revision is currently available in Journal of Political Economy) on the consequences of expecting the Peter Principle to manifest itself in recently promoted managers.

SECOND SECTION: In the Shadow of Mt. Hollywood offers an example to the contrary. Here is a complaint that crosses the line into research-bashing:
Articles like the one cited suggest the scholars involved haven't had sufficient exposure to the real world, or are perhaps slanting their research toward preconceived notions of acceptability. The problem continues to be, as I see it, that we ought to be smarter as a society than we are in dealing with these situations, and the current crop of Ph.D. social scientists doesn't seem to be helping us.
That's unclear. Cross-section studies do have outliers. One thing researchers teach apprentice researchers is to not generalize by your own experience. Academic research does not exist to solve the problems of business. (If it did, the academic love affair with socialism would have a lot more credibility.) Market tests serve to winnow out less effective managers.

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