18.3.06

COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS WILL DO WHAT THEY PLEASE. Last week, the consensus among the weather models the radio and TV forecasters rely on was for a serious snowfall on March 16. My neighbor was busy putting the plow on his pickup truck as well as attaching the salt-shaker to the rear. He even staged a dump truck with plow attached as a reserve. The television forecaster was expecting the snow to start around 3 am.

I was up and about around 7 am on the 16th. Open the shade, look outside, nothing happening. A few flurries around 9 am. Weather Channel radar has the ugly pink band (freezing rain or similar pleasures) directly over DeKalb. Nothing hitting the ground. Check the university site for an update.
WHAT'S ON MY MIND: Dry air from Canada means bye-bye snow. Radar clearly shows it evaporating around 3,000 feet and below as the system brings in air with humidities around 40% in the lowest 3,000 feet of the atmosphere. That's just drying up the snow after it leaves the clouds. The snow IS heavy; in fact, I can tell looking at satellite imagery thundersnow is trying to get going. But, it is so dry halfway below cloud base that it is just evaporating it before it hits ground, except in the heaviest snow showers. So, I will reduce amounts to a dusting to 2". The amount of dry air coming into this system is very impressive. And needless to say, forecasts are busting badly all over the place. I expect the NWS to cancel their warning shortly.
Which is what they did. Around 4 pm some snow started sticking, but that amounted to maybe a quarter inch, all of which had melted by mid-morning Friday.

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