SENDING THE RECESSION HOME. Illegal immigrants bring a last shipment of gifts home with them.

These personal dramas will shape the stalled debate over how to treat the 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. Although Barack Obama's election has revived hopes of a legalization plan, most experts are skeptical, given that the same economic crisis is battering U.S.-born workers.

Mexican officials, meanwhile, are bracing for more Rafael Garcias [a construction worker rendered redundant by the housing crash] and the strains that might be felt on villages accustomed to sending immigrants and receiving a share of their paychecks in the U.S., a figure that topped $25 billion last year.

The cracks in the system had already been felt in Zinapecuaro, a town in northeast Michoacan, the state that by many estimates sends the most immigrants to Chicago.

The state of Michoacan has seen remittances falling steadily since 2006, a danger because it receives about $2.5 billion a year—about one-sixth of its total revenues—from workers in the U.S.

Here's a possible test of the Hillman and Weiss model of illegal immigration and amnesty. If the purpose of an amnesty is to release resources from searches for illegal immigrants in the workforce in order to strengthen border enforcement, we're unlikely to see much enthusiasm for such an amnesty in the near future, as the most effective policy to prevent illegal immigration with many of the potential illegal immigrants out of the country is to enforce the borders.

On the other hand, if the amnesty is part of a policy to elicit favorable self-selection (perhaps we can call that the Karlson and Katz model of illegal immigration and amnesty) there is no point in changing border enforcement from its current status, but there's no rush to grant the next amnesty either.