OF GLAZIERS AND TAILORS. King Banaian
catches a
Wall Street Journal columnist
seeing the good in a
broken window.
The six-month moratorium on deep-water drilling may cut U.S. oil production by around 3% in 2011 and cost more than 3,000 jobs, according to J.P. Morgan’s energy analysts.
Commercial fishing in the Gulf is also likely to suffer, but that’s only about 0.005% of U.S. GDP. The impact on tourism is the hardest to measure, although it’s fair to expect that many hotel workers who lose their jobs will find it hard to get new ones.
Still, cleaning up the spill will likely be enough to slightly offset the negative impact of all this on GDP, J.P. Morgan said. The bank cites estimates of 4,000 unemployed people hired for the cleanup efforts, which some reports have said could be worth between $3 and $6 billion.
“If realized, this would likely mean a near- to medium-term boost to activity that might offset the drags,” Feroli said.
Not quite, says Professor Banaian.
We'll probably spend more time on greening GDP than we will on economic education that keeps analysts at investment houses from being quoted saying dumb things.
A news report Tuesday noted spot shortages of workers with hazardous material training, and companies specializing in picking up train derailments might face delays in shipments of protective clothing.
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