At the end of August, the comparison of the most commonly reported unemployment rate with the expectations of the designers of the economic stimulus looked like this.
Now comes the sickly, stagnant September jobs report, unless you're really optimistic. There is improvement in both the U-3 unemployment rate and the participation-rate-held-constant estimate.
This chart has already been circulated by Insta Pundit.
There's a more instructive chart in the American Enterprise Institute post that is serving as source.
That's the U-Six unemployment rate, which started trending upward with the swearing in of Speaker Pelosi, and has been heading generally downward since the swearing in of the Tea Party House of Representative. Those are both coincidences, not likely to be confirmed by any sort of serious social science.