5.10.12

RETRENCHMENT BY THE LEGACY MEDIA.

The joint venture of the networks and Associated Press will conduct exit polls in 31 of the 57 fifty states.  The omitted nineteen are in the view of the experts solid for one candidate or the other.
Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Sometimes what is unseen is as important as what is seen.
All 19 of the states with no exit polls are classified as either “solid Obama” or “solid Romney,” and there is only one “toss-up” gubernatorial or U.S. Senate race not on the list: the competitive North Dakota match-up of Heidi Heitkamp and Rick Berg.
The Received Wisdom on all the electoral maps I have seen has Illinois as "solid Obama." And yet, exit pollers will be working in Illinois.  Perhaps that observation by Vice President Biden about the middle-class being slammed by the past four years is consequential in Illinois.
"For Mr. Obama to be in a statistical tie in an area that he won by around 20 points in 2008 truly reveals the failure of his Presidency," said Illinois-based political consultant Paul Miller. "The economy is undoubtedly the key factor, but in suburbs with a large Jewish population, his treatment of Israel is also taking its toll."

There is a sizable Jewish vote in the district. It could account for the rising dissatisfaction with Obama here. Also a factor could be the lack of leadership from Illinois' Democrat legislative leaders, who dominate state government and are quickly bankrupting the state. The state's debt level has exploded and recent massive tax hikes have done nothing to plug the state's gaping budget deficits.
The state Republican organization is in disarray, for reasons other than past party leaders being jailed.  Perhaps, though, there's enough afoot that the networks are watching.  I can think of nothing more likely to wipe that smirk off Rachel Maddow's face than to have to call Illinois for Romney.

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