30.11.15

ANTICIPATING THE FOURTH TURNING.

Matthew Continetti warns the punditry to "Prepare to be Blindsided" in the upcoming presidential campaign, as complex adaptive systems do what they do best. "
First the unthinkable becomes conceivable. Then the conceivable becomes plausible. Then the plausible becomes acceptable. And the next thing you know, we’ve got President Trump.
Let's just treat that as a possibility, without any indication on Mr Continetti's part whether that's desirable or not.  To Kurt Schlichter, it's also a possibility, one that his past writings suggest he might welcome.
Our contributions to society are belittled, as if the welfare-sucking losers living on Democrat handouts built this country instead of us.

This is unjust.  This is wrong.  And this will not last.  Where there is no justice, there will be no peace.  Trump is only the harbinger of a much deeper anger, and a fully justified one.  It cannot continue; the status quo is not static, and injustice will create a reaction.  Upheaval is coming, and chaos looms if we stay this course.  It’s not too late to fundamentally transform back into a just society, but that would take a real leader.
And in this Dan McLaughlin essay is the possibility that a nomination and an electoral victory for Mr Trump might come from voters who have sat out previous elections.
The number of people who voted for a past Republican presidential candidate and not for Mitt Romney likely isn’t be much above the 1 million to 1.5 million range, not enough by itself to cover the distance between Romney and Obama, and the missing stay-at-home voters did not appreciably cut into the proportion of voters who think of themselves as “conservatives.”

But this doesn’t mean the electorate really is static, or that there’s no opportunity to improve on it. What it means is that the missing potential Republican voters are not been regular voters in the recent past, and many of them may not be politically engaged people who think of themselves as conservatives, whether or not their actual beliefs are. Let’s start with the fact that about 93 million eligible voters didn’t vote at all in 2012
What follows is wonky, more about the detail work required to get voters registered, and participating in caucus and primary and then showing up in November.  Perhaps, though, it's simpler.  The Irony of Democracy (I read the 1971 edition years ago) is that the people who stay home hold what the authors characterized as negative and illiberal attitudes toward democracy.

And perhaps it is the angry radio talkers, and the angry and unbeholden to the nomenklatura presidential aspirants, who are filling the stadia at Mr Trump's rallies.  But will they turn out?

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