26.9.11

DUDE, WHERE'S MY RECESSION?

Arnold Kling, en route to a high school class reunion, attempts to answer that question.
There are multiple escalators in the economy. At any one point in time, some people are on up escalators, and some people are on down escalators. From 1970 to 2000, I think that cohort data would tell you that many more families rode escalators up than rode them down. From 2000 to today, my guess is that the proportion riding up escalators has not been as high.

Maybe that is what a recession is. Not a macroeconomic accident in which all of us suddenly decided to spend less and consequently have been unemployed more. But a period in which the up escalators are less crowded and the down escalators have more people than usual.
And some Baltimore Ravens fans are still able to fly to away games. Mr Kling's status radar is apparently well-enough calibrated to determine that those fans were "not from the top ten percent of the income distribution."

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