IT'S NOT THE THIRD TURNING ANYMORE: The murder of Serbia and Montenegro's prime minister noted by Professor Drezner: "[Although] the events are entirely unrelated, there's something spooky about the assassination of a Serbian leader coinciding with the world being, say, 45 days from an international conflagration.

At least it's not July."

True enough, but the analogue to the Congress of Vienna and the Crowned Heads of Europe, cousins all, is the two European alliances (NATO and the Warsaw Pact) and International Communism. The latter has been toppled and the former is already crumbling. The resolution is likely to take more than a few months (which is what the European powers anticipated in the summer of 1914, if memory serves.)