30.9.22

MODEL RAILROADING'S HIGH SEASON IS UPON US.

Model railroading is never out of season.  It's true, though, that most of the modelling activity goes on from the end of the World Series until pitchers and catchers report, and there's a lot of shopping in advance of Christmas.

The good news is that the swap meets and shows that were on hold thanks to the corona tyranny are returning.  The Monroe, Wisconsin show returned last weekend, and the high-railers showed off their creativity.


The operating displays are part of the atmosphere.  So, too, is the dickering, and sometimes treasures turn up at the swap meets.  Enjoy.

FRIDAY short TAKES.

Reality doesn't give a darn about your feelings.  "Today’s progressivism has become a faux-moral movement hurling charges of racism, bigotry, xenophobia, homophobia, Islamophobia and a slew of other meaningless buzzwords at anyone they disagree with."  That might be tolerable if it didn't come bundled with wealth destruction.  "Trump said Joe Biden would crush your savings and stock portfolio, and he was right." Never mind Putin's price hike, it's Biden's bear market.  Pounces away!!  "Republicans pounce on ailing markets to criticize Biden."  Or whoever is pulling his strings. "Now America has to live with the consequences."  Such as "Biden Asks Where Dead Congresswoman Is."


Tell me, what is Jennifer Holdsworth smoking?  "[T]here is no greater juxtaposition than the kindness and humanity of Joe Biden than the, you know, awful, inhumane, bully that is Ron DeSantis."  Leni Riefenstahl could not be reached for comment.  "[T]he nation suffers not only from Biden’s insane policy prescriptions, but from sheer embarrassment at having this dementia-addled man at the helm."

Turf them out.

The weekly roundup of pithy elaborations of traditional Cold Spring Shops themes follows.

WELFARE WITH AN OCEAN VIEW.

The Charles Peters-era Washington Monthly preached a sort of pragmatic technocracy that he tried to position as "neoliberalism" before that term took on the scary connotations it currently does.  As the magazine's title suggests, the intended audience was policy wonks who might have a hand in Implementing That General Will.  Implementation, however, includes looking at those policies that are not working, with a view toward changing some and ending others.  The title of my post refers to a more recent article that prays for an end to public funding of coastal restoration.  "The federal government spends billions replenishing beaches for the affluent. The bill will soon skyrocket thanks to climate change."  It's not limited to the beaches.  Presumably the Obamas built a retirement cottage on Martha's Vineyard because the taxpayers will be on the hook for rebuilding the house as well.  Your tax dollars maintain the beaches where they are, in order that the houses of the nomenklatura can remain where they are.
Why do governments keep subsidizing houses in hurricane zones?

Sure, some people would live in risky areas no matter what. Some live in these areas already and can't afford to move. But government intervention in the insurance market has helped many more people move to these areas since the 1970s.
There's moral hazard at work.  There might also be regressive transfers.
Whenever there's a major flood (doesn't matter if it follows a hurricane or a rain storm or it's just the spring thaw somewhere in the north) you'll get people talking about "hundred-year" or "thousand-year" or what have you flood events.

And yes, there are people who lose that lottery multiple times, and perhaps there will be a moment when our political masters will sit down and rethink the current system of publicly subsidized flood insurance, under which the taxpayers replace the same damaged property, repeatedly.  Not surprisingly, the flood insurance program replaces more than a little beach-front property for rent-seekers, and once the emergency passes, I intend to turn to that dimension of the situation.
Where a policy of making good flood damage looks like an inefficient use of resources, particularly if rising sea levels or stronger hurricanes are in our future, as the doomsday environmentalists would have it, as well as a regressive transfer, with the likes of the Obamas and Newt Gingrich and who knows how many other people you might have heard of qualifying for a rebuild of their beachfront property, perhaps there might be a consensus for no further subsidies to beachfront housing, no matter how appealing the view from the balcony might be.

29.9.22

IT IS UP TO THE FACULTY TO BE GOOD STEWARDS OF THE UNIVERSITY.

Jonathan Haidt grapples with that responsibility in his "The Two Fiduciary Duties of Professors."  His opening paragraphs suggest that too much epistemic closure renders the academy incapable of serious thought.
I said that universities can have many goals (such as fiscal health and successful sports teams) and many values (such as social justice, national service, or Christian humility), but they can have only one telos, because a telos is like a North Star. It is the end, purpose, or goal around which the institution is structured. An institution can rotate on one axis only. If it tries to elevate a second goal or value to the status of a telos, it is like trying to get a spinning top or rotating solar system to simultaneously rotate around two axes. I argued that the sudden wave of protests and changes that were sweeping through universities were attempts to elevate the value of social justice to become a second telos, which would require a massive restructuring of universities and their norms in ways that damaged their ability to find truth.
That sounds a lot like "The Costs of Correctness," although it differs in meaningful ways.
I expanded on this argument in a blog post for Heterodox Academy where I predicted that “the conflict between truth and social justice is likely to become unmanageable … Universities that try to honor both will face increasing incoherence and internal conflict.” It’s now six years later, and I think it’s clear that this prediction has come true. It has been six years of near-constant conflict, with rising numbers of attempts to get scholars fired or punished for things they have said, and a never-ending stream of videos showing students (and sometimes professors) saying and doing things that are gifts to critics of universities and of the left. As one university president said to a friend of mine in 2019, “Universities are becoming ungovernable.” Public trust in universities has plummeted since 2015,² first on the right, but later across the board. We are in trouble.
Indeed they are. The point of learning to think is to be able to recognize when somebody is talking rot. That requires some basis for understanding what is or is not rot. There are ways to call attention to lacunae in the Western political order or what have you in an intellectually consistent way. That, however, is not the way of the critical studies types, with their fantasies of interrogating things.  Back to Mr Haidt.
I believe it is still incumbent on every professor to act properly and professionally in the meantime — in part because professionals abandoning their duties in our political and epistemic institutions is a major cause of the collapse. So how do we act properly and professionally? What is the right thing to do when there are so many competing crises, each with its own moral demands? Should professors engage in political activism — in their teaching and in their research — and push their universities and professional associations to do so as well?

In the rest of this essay I’d like to introduce the concept of fiduciary duty, which I believe complements the concept of telos and can help explain the moral incoherence that has overtaken the academy since 2015, as well as give us a moral foundation upon which to stand when we resist pressures to violate our duties.
I'd like to think it's as simple as recognizing there is a boundary, fuzzy perhaps, but a boundary nonetheless, between positive analysis, or an intellectually consistent way of understanding phenomena, and normative analysis, which might apply the positive analysis in support of a preferred policy outcome.  Those distinctions might be harder to see if you're unfamiliar with the discourse practice of a discipline.  They exist, all the same.

Ultimately, what Mr Haidt is calling for is the faculty to be good stewards.
The word fiduciary comes to us from the Latin fidere, “to trust.” In any large-scale society, people need to rely on others who are not kin, often when they are in a position of vulnerability. Roman, English, and later American law all developed legal designations that enable some people or institutions to hire themselves out as “trustees” who act as “agents” of the person (the “principal”) who invests trust in them. Such agents have fiduciary duties toward their beneficiaries, which means first and foremost absolute loyalty. They must put the needs of the beneficiary first and must never, ever profit at the beneficiary’s expense. They must avoid and eliminate all conflicts of interest, because the lure of such potential benefits can — and often does — corrupt and subvert the fiduciary’s ability to carry out their duty.
I wonder if, somewhere in the fever swamps of Inside Higher Ed or the Chronicle of Higher Education or the other house organs for all wokeness, all the time, there aren't creative minds already offering arguments to the effect that developing antiracist consciousness, or placing environmental degradation or nuclear proliferation top of mind, aren't precisely what putting the needs of the beneficiary first entails.

A LOGIC LESSON.

Dan "Baseball Crank" McLaughlin strikes Jonathan Chait out.  "Both the motive and the rhetorical trick at work here are fairly transparent."  Here's the logic lesson, dear reader. Deploy a tu quoque argument at your own risk.
Is it bad and dangerous to peddle stolen-election conspiracy theories, attack the legitimacy of election results, try to get them thrown out in court, object to certifying electors in Congress, and generally treat the winners of elections as if they have no right to exercise the powers of office? If that is your standard, there are a lot of Democrats who are threats to democracy, including Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, Stacey Abrams, John Lewis, former DNC chairs Terry McAuliffe, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Howard Dean, January 6 committee chair Bennie Thompson, and — of course — Jonathan Chait himself. I have documented this in depth here, here, here, here, here, and here, as well as several other places linked in those items. Heck, the current president, Joe Biden, has preemptively attempted to delegitimize the upcoming midterm elections, while the current Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, described American elections as a “rigged game.” Chait appears to have no problem with any of this, having participated in some of it himself.
That doesn't work.  He's on more solid ground, though, noting that it is possible to stand on a principle.
I do not point to the prior and ongoing misconduct of Democrats and their intellectual and pundit class as a justification for the behavior of Trump or the behavior of anyone in the GOP or on the right. But here’s the thing: You can’t have it both ways. You can’t summon up the “danger to democracy” rhetoric on the basis of Trump’s unique behavior, defend and distinguish the behavior of your own side by pointing to that uniqueness, and then just routinely transfer the Trump rhetoric to people who have done nothing like what Trump did.
Being unprincipled might be a precondition for being a politician. The column then turns to matters of policy.  The conclusion points to what might be the harshest logic lesson.
Instead, the modern welfare/entitlement state spends money on autopilot without asking the people for their continuing consent; you need a majority of the House plus 60 Senators plus the president in order to not continue an ongoing act of the federal government. That absolutely is a problem of democratic legitimacy, but it thwarts the results of elections in ways that Jonathan Chait approves of.
It's also the ultimate act of denial. While the likes of Bernie Sanders and Ron Johnson are throwing barbs at each other about "ending" "Social" "Security" nobody is paying any attention to the slow decline in the so-called trust fund, let alone the growing reluctance of bond traders to validate the Jarrett regency's money printing.

28.9.22

BASTIAT'S GRAND FICTION IN THE BEDROOM COMMUNITIES.

It will materialize in the course of a lament by Laura "11-D" McKenna.
In our decentralized system of government, most social services, from education to housing, are provided by localities. And the people who run those local governments, like my school board friend, must write the checks and somehow make the spreadsheets work. One dollar for the autistic person means one fewer dollar for a prestigious AP program or a library program aimed at seniors. Some people fill up the tax coffers in a community, while others are very costly.

This crazy way of providing services in this country has reduced everyone to a number. What’s your number? Multiply your number of kids by the price of schooling at the local public school, the extra services they need, and then subtract your local taxes. Are you a positive or a negative?
It doesn't have to be that way.  But restrictive zoning practices have contributed to a situation in which many municipalities are not capable of raising sufficient taxes locally to cover the services the voters would like them to offer.  That's long been an area of policy interest at Northern Illinois University, although, unfortunately, much of the publicity the university makes available came across as normative: oh, look how unsustainable that sprawl is!

Not necessarily.
Strong Towns frequently feature communities that were once vibrant manifestations of car culture and suburban affluence.  Many of them, including Colerain, Ohio, a Cincinnati suburb, have turned into swamps of public squalor amid private destitution (to tweak an old J. K. Galbraith phrase.)  It goes beyond the downscale people attempting to cross the butt-ugly stroads, which is the focus of the post.  "What are the options for the folks who find themselves standing on the side of Colerain Avenue? They can work part time at one of the fast food outlets. They can scrape by month to month with payday loans and pawn shop transactions. Or they can join the military which is by far the best career option, although it comes with certain risks."  The author's thesis, consistent with Strong Towns writers' emphasis on the suburban growth ponzi scheme, is that these once-promising bedroom suburbs have become obsolete and the strip malls and tract houses have trickled down to people less capable of taking care of what they have.
That might be too harsh. The McKenna household could be in a municipality facing a different sort of problem. "The school districts, police, and fire protection, might rely on people who have to live at a distance from the Upgraded Executive Boxes and McMansions that change hands among the transferees. As long as the test scores are high, and the athletic teams competitive, Curriculum Wars are probably infrequent, and silly zero-tolerance policies unchallenged."  Yes, that post is over ten years old, and the Curriculum Wars ought to be top of mind among parents in the upcoming election.

A NEW SEPARATING EQUILIBRIUM?

In my gloomier moments, I wonder if we're not one looted convenience store away from some jurisdictions again becoming sundown towns.
Major portions of many of our large, Democrat-run cities have become unlivable. Crime, lawlessness, and a general breakdown of the norms of civilization are rampant. Many young people in these cities are untrained, ignorant, and, one suspects, unemployable. But they don’t seem to mind, and our society apparently doesn’t expect more from them. Maybe liberals like the prospect of a generation with no prospects, who will forever be dependent on government.

These trends come together in spectacular displays of anarchy like the ransacking and looting of a Wawa store in Philadelphia, one of many misgoverned Democrat cities, on Saturday night. Reportedly something like 100 young people, described as teenagers although some appear older, participated.
Earlier this year, a candidate for Milwaukee County's board of supervisors came close to calling for such measures. "I don't want this neighborhood to turn into an African shantytown."  He subsequently apologized and deleted his campaign.

That might have been the proper thing to do, but it's not as if people aren't noticing what he noticed.
The criminal element among the black community – estimated to be about 4% of the population – is also estimated to be responsible for about half the violent crime in the United States. That is poisonous enough, but in a lot of ways, it’s a self-limiting phenomenon. Black offenders with a penchant for violence will eventually encounter a final come-uppance: other offenders in open gang war, law-enforcement once they have pushed too far and too openly, even eventually vigilante action, should the black criminal element venture too far away from their protected turf. Vicious predators in the back country eventually run into a terminal 3-S solution.
That's my Chicago Boyz colleague Sgt. Mom, who continues,
Tolerations and patience among ordinary citizens already appear to be running out when it comes to the black criminal class; might it be running out for the antics of the black activists and the lunatic intellectual racists as well? Not that I think there will be any overt demonstrations, such as there would have been early in the last century; any actions taken will be more along the lines of quiet shunning and physical avoidance.
That sort of shunning and self-sorting will go on, even if the real estate business wants to make it harder for people to figure out where the dangerous quarters are.
So who are the real racists here? The people searching for a home, or the real estate honchos who want to pretend they’re “better serving” consumers and being more “equitable” to black/brown/Asian communities by excluding important data that all people look to – white, black, Hispanic, etc – when trying to rent/buy a home?

My prediction on this is that it’s going to backfire big time on Redfin and Realtor.com, much the same as “Defund the Police” backfired on House Democrats. Because as it turns out, no matter what a person’s race is, they want police around to protect them and they want to know the crime data for cities and neighborhoods because their first priority is to keep their family safe.
We can close the windows, and pretend there's no thunderstorm outside, and it's raining all the same.
As a society, we never, ever talk about this stuff in public. Our newspapers and TV stations don’t report on it. Nobody runs op-eds about it, because this discourse is not permissible, any more than it is possible in our media to discuss anything to do with LGBT people or Muslims in a negative light. The taboos are very strong, especially in the age of cancel culture.
That might be so, and yet, if the previous creation of sundown towns, based on flimsy evidence, contributes to contemporary inequalities, what will be the effect of a new era of sundown towns, perhaps based on income characteristics, rather than racial characteristics, on inequalities yet to come?

26.9.22

YOU CAN RATION HEALTH CARE BY PRICE, OR RATION IT BY POLITICS.

Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution builds a post off a lengthy comment on some other post.
Single payer’s magic has historically worked via just a few channels:

1. Some amount of monopsony allows the government to bid down medical services below market rates.
2. Political imperatives lead to lower training burdens, lower staffing ratios, and lower certainty in diagnosis and treatment.
3. Obfuscation of possible alternatives diminishes demand for costlier care.
There's a great deal of elaboration in the comment, go over to the post and read it.

I remain amused that public monopsonies such as a government health agency or a state liquor store get commendations for bargaining down the prices they pay for supplies, whilst private monopsonies such as a company town get slagged upon for bargaining down the prices they pay for supplies.  But I digress.

Professor Cowen concludes the post with a few observations on those single payer systems coming to grief.
There is a natural tendency on the internet to think that all universal coverage systems are single payer, but they are not. There is also a natural tendency to contrast single payer systems with freer market alternatives, but that is also an option not a necessity. You also can contrast single payer systems with mixed systems where both the government and the private sector have a major role, such as in Switzerland.

I’ll say it again: single payer systems just don’t have the resources or the capitalization to do well in the future, or for that matter the present. Populations are aging, Covid-related costs (including burdens on labor supply) have been a problem, income inequality pulls away medical personnel from government jobs, and health care costs have been rising around the world. Citizens will tolerate only so much taxation, plus mobility issues may bite. So the single payer systems just don’t have enough money to get the job done. That stance is conceptually distinct from thinking health care should be put on a much bigger market footing. But at the very least it will require a larger private sector role for the financing.
It's not possible, however, for Our Intelllectual Betters to develop humility.
There is, however, ample evidence that court intellectuals for Democrats design policies from a mind-set of Omniscient Expertise, whether For Your Own Good (voters are ignorant) or as Efficient Division of Labor (voters are boundedly rational and experts have objectively better information sets), that court intellectuals for Democrats often come across as snobbish and condescending (I watch MSNBC so you don't have to), and that Democrats enact policies that oft run afoul of the Law of Unintended Consequences.
Fortunately, the court intellectuals are mostly on defense these days.

COME SEE THE PROJECTION INHERENT IN THE PROGRESSIVISM.

In June, Common Dreams regular Thom Hartmann sounded a warning about fascism.  He thought he was describing what Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis were after.
Is it possible this could happen in America? That all these "small steps" would one day lead to a dictatorial form of government that has so cowed the people, the politicians, and even the business community and media that it can't be challenged?

Doesn't the nation rise up and protest the destruction of its own democracy? Don't the people pour into the streets?
Let the record show that social media companies, the legacy press, and many major corporations were on board with the corona tyranny and a weak form of critical theory as operating principles, long before that hysterical speech in Philadelphia.

Mr Hartmann's brain-brother Milton Mayer spoke with some Germans, who noted a phenomenon akin to turning up the heat under the pot slowly, with the frog not catching on.
Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for the one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow.

"You don't want to act, or even to talk, alone; you don't want to 'go out of your way to make trouble.' Why not?—Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty."
Perhaps it started with "fifteen days to slow the spread." Or perhaps with making the schools a little more inclusive, or bail conditions a little less onerous.  Don't carry on, don't be unsociable.
"But of course this isn't the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

"And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying 'Jew swine,' collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose."
These days, that little boy might say "racist" or start tossing pronouns around. But in Mr Hartmann's Wolkenkuckucksheim, it's the Democrats going to jail. Please.

IN CASE OF LONDON FOG, THERE'S A BACKUP PLAN.

It would not do for the minute gun to be out of synch with Big Ben.
Because at the stroke of 12.15pm as silence falls across London, it is precisely at that moment when Army precision kicks in with flawless accuracy - practised to perfection – so the procession can begin against the chimes of the world’s most famous clock.

For one team of soldiers however, silence will not be an option – it is their job to ensure the guns of The King’s Troop Royal Horse Artillery (KTRHA) fire at precisely the same time that Big Ben chimes, because it is the guns that mark the start and the finish of the funeral procession, not the bell.

While the Westminster crowds stand still, soldiers from 10 Signal Regiment will be at the top of the iconic Elizabeth Tower to communicate the exact timings with Army personnel on the ground.

For Operation London Bridge they provide the timings to synchronise both the chimes of Big Ben, with the Minute Gun salutes of KTRHA via secure telecommunications and flag signals, during the movement of the coffin from Westminster Abbey to Wellington Arch.
The watches must be synchronised, as well as the chime and the gun, as the Horse Artillery are somewhere near Buckingham Palace, which is to say, a few seconds' distant from earshot at Westminster Abbey, as well as out of sight of the lead units of the cortege, which otherwise could, in yacht racing fashion, step off at the sight of gunsmoke.
Westminster Abbey Observer, Major (Maj) Harrison, and Operator Lance Corporal (LCpl) Butler wait for the coffin of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II to appear in the doorway of Westminster Abbey. This starts the flag waving signals seen at the KTRHA gun line in Hyde Park.

When Garrison Sergeant Major Stokes orders ‘Funeral procession by the centre, Slow March’, Maj Harrison and LCpl Butler initiate the firing sequence by issuing the words of command ‘Fire Fire Fire!’, the flag drops at Hyde Park and KTRHA fire the first gun salute.

Perfection is the only option. Reacting to Big Ben’s famous toll would mean being a stroke too late. At the top of the 334 steps inside the tower, the soldiers of 251 Signal Squadron thrive on providing military precision. Captain (Capt) Cooper, the Timing Control Officer supported by Lieutenant Richards and Staff Sergeant Yeoman of Signals (YofS) Fowler sit behind the hands of the Elizabeth Clock Tower face with the horologists wearing full ceremonial uniform and hard hats.

Capt Cooper explained: “It’s my job to ensure everything goes like clockwork. Every minute during the procession, commands are issued to both the gun line and the horologists, to ensure the guns fire and Big Ben tolls every 60 seconds.”
How very British, the horologists have the requisite hard hats for an industrial setting, plus the ceremonial uniforms for the occasion.  The weather was fine for the processions last Monday, and the backup plan in case of fog did not have to be used.  "While the responsibility for ensuring the signal is communicated at the right time falls to the Army experts, the job of keeping the world-famous timepiece in working order falls to the Palace of Westminster’s clock mechanics."  It's convenient, as well, to have the Greenwich Observatory bang on the Prime Meridian to get a a good fix on noon, in order that the 12:15 formalities would be on the advertised.

25.9.22

WATCH THIS SPACE.

The fall weather is upon us, right on time, and that should make for opportunities to work on the railroad.

During the summer, the cellar is a refuge from the heat on the hot and humid days.  It looked like we were going to have a lot of those early on, although most of August and September were near or a little below recorded normal temperatures, making for a lot of outside time.


What's the point of putting a train room under the garage, if the train room doesn't get built under the garage?


There was a lot of work with the hammer drill making holes in the concrete walls, then driving concrete anchors to hold the furring strips and the insulation.  The test of this insulation will come this winter.

After a lot of discussion with other model railroaders, the train room will have this painted ceiling (it's the underside of the garage) and those big garage-style lights will be replaced with strings of light-emitting-diode spotlights above the tracks.


The paint booth will be behind the tracks and hidden away, once all the work is done.There's a blower in the paint booth, and the ducting has subsequently been connected and aligned to vent to the outside.


In the main basement, the photo backdrop that's along a particularly narrow stretch of the upper benchwork ends abruptly.  I never studied impressionist landscape painting, which might have come in handy here, where the hardboard backdrop wants to give the impression of the tree line continuing.


Put enough three dimensional trees in front of the backdrop, though, and the transition will be a lot less jarring.

The March Meet will be St. Patrick's weekend, the way it used to be.  Let's see what gets done in the next six months.

TODAY'S RAILROAD READING.

What happens when a snowstorm disrupts operations on an electrified mountain railroad?
Our work outfit had a 2-6-6-2 Mallet and we were called to push a steam rotary over the pass. A snow slide at Falcon had blocked the tracks and tore down the overhead trolley wires. Our rotary crew had cleared the passing track at Falcon, then we went to work on our other assignments for the day.

When we got to East Portal, we plowed out the sidings and had a meet with a westbound freight train.
That's got the tension necessary to a work of railroad fiction. Now bring in the human interactions.
Good railroad fiction has in common with good sea stories the opening line, "No s***, this really happened." The stories in the anthologies I've read tend to fall into a few broad categories: the rigid manager who has a humbling experience, the dispatcher or telegrapher that keeps 'em rolling despite natural or man-made problems, the maintainer that comes up with an inventive if not quite by the book fix.
Only we are in a no s*** this really happened situation.
Since the wire at Falcon was now buried in a pile of snow, the train would have to go through there with the pantographs down. With the trolley overhead gone, there were no working air compressors on the train as there was no source of electricity to run them.

This meant there would be no regenerative braking and the crew would have to handle train braking using only the compressed air in the system. Additionally, there was no way to release the train brakes once they were set.

As the train rolled through the gap in the trolley overhead, the brakes crept on more and more, threatening to stop the moving train. With no compressors the crew had no way to kick off the air brakes to keep the train moving through the gap. Eventually the train stalled with both electric engines sitting in the section that had no electricity.
That's a safety feature. You wouldn't want leakage in the brake line, thanks to entropy and amplified by cold weather, to have the brakes releasing.  But you have to put enough pressure back into the brake line to be able to reapply the brakes, once you have a pusher on and the train ready to move.
The air in the braking system on the freight had leaked off after two to three hours on a cold night in the mountains. We backed onto the it and coupled up the air from our 2-6-6-2. Then the old-time hoghead on the Mallet released the brakes and started pumping air into the train, but the air from the steam engine was too little and too late.

As soon as the brakes released, away went the train, and us with it.

I was in the rotary and the air gauge said 15 pounds in the train line. I knew that once the train started moving, we wouldn’t have enough brakes to stop it.
Will this story end with a broken train and dead and injured people? Will the substation flash over when the electric locomotives go into regeneration from too high a speed?  Will the steam locomotive engineer come to blows with the engineer on the helper electric locomotive?  Click over for the rest of the story.

A BETTER APPROXIMATION TO THE CENTER OF MASS?

The size of the policy bundles, combined with the size of the population, suggests that the set of issues on which there is complete consensus tends to be empty, and it's wishful thinking to hope for any sort of median voter.  That noted, methods of voting in which the most discontented voices get to pick the candidates for the general election probably contribute to suboptimal outcomes.

Are improvements possible?  One possibility might be ranked choice voting.  "Citizens no longer have to strategically decide between voting their preference, which may well mean 'wasting' their vote if it’s for the 3rd place or lower candidate, or voting the lesser of two evils."  Leave aside whether voting as if the choice is binary is the desirable strategy, or whether the lesser of two evils is still evil.  Let's consider whether being able to rank choices might give the parties a better idea of what the center of mass of preferences is.

In the middle of a gripe about how Alaska's method of ranking choices works, American Thinker contributor Brian Parsons inadvertently hints at exactly that possibility.  He starts with what has become a talking point among populists with conservative tendencies, namely, that if Republicans can get sixty percent of the first choice votes, and a Democrat wins the instant runoff, something is wrong.  "Because the Republicans in the first two slots essentially diluted their share of the vote, that left Democrat Peltola as the winner."  That's only because a number of the voters for the Republican who garnered the third most top choices picked the Democrat, Mary Peltola, as their second choice, rather than the other Republican, Sarah Palin.  Mr Parsons inadvertently recognizes the central tendencies inherent in ranked choice.  "The reasoning behind it is simple, ranked-choice most benefits the most moderate candidates."  So stop running crazies, right?

Mr Parsons, apparently, would rather get out the base rather than, oh, expand the coalition.
Most engaged conservatives in red states will reject schemes like this outright, while most liberal democrats in red states will support them outright. The battle for the country’s future falls in the middle, largely with the moderate and uninvested voters. This is why schemes are concocted to appeal to this demographic. The challenge then consists of educating conservatives on why these schemes will be our undoing before we are undone.
No, the challenge is in selling a winning message, which, given the Democrats' record on corona tyranny, crime, failing schools, inflation, and the Biden bear market ought be straightforward.  Where there's ranked choice, loyalists to Libertarians or to Free Soilers or what have you might rank the Republicans ahead of the Democrats in the construction of that instant runoff majority.  That didn't happen in Alaska.  "[A] significant number of Begich voters preferred the Democrat to Palin."

That's the idea.  "Whatever you think about ranked-choice voting, one of its benefits is that it can show you just how good each candidate was at appealing to the broader electorate — the stated purpose of the system."

Does ranked choice provide that better approximation to the center of mass of policy preferences?  It's too soon to tell, concludes James Joyner.
I sincerely hope that we’ve turned the tide and we’re about to see a backlash against extremists, nutjobs, charlatans, and others unfit to govern. There’s a least some evidence for that in the broader polling trends. Maybe Palin’s defeat here is a harbinger of that. But it’s simply too soon to tell and one contest—let alone a low-turnout special election using voting rules that the citizenry and parties aren’t used to—just doesn’t provide much information.
The same three candidates will compete for a full House term in November.  Will Team Palin work on building turnout, or will Team Begich attempt to flip enough Palin voters so as to be first past the post without any instant runoff?

23.9.22

SUMMER'S END.

Schools are back in session, the equinox has passed, the harvest will soon be taken in, and Oktoberfest season is in full polka mode.  Here's a retrospective of the end of the county fair season.


Sound advice, here directed toward 4-H exhibitors at the Walworth County Fair.


Because Wisconsin 4-H work with University Extension, somebody thought it was necessary to subject the youngsters to all the impedimenta of mission, vision, and values.  Please.


Sorry, this exurban mouse still finds some of the terminology, such as "champion carcass," jarring.


So, also, with the breeding of garden pests to look cute.

The rabbit tent at the Sandwich Fair does draw children of all ages, though.


This little piggy went to market.


The collectors of vintage farm implements show their stuff.

Yes, there was a company that made such machinery in Sandwich, where the fairgrounds are.


That's a Really Useful winner in the wood-working competition.


That version of the Flying Carpet is all ready to go from fairground to Oktoberfest.

Enjoy your Oktoberfest now, dear reader.  A neighbor of Cold Spring Shops is already putting up the Hallowe'en decorations.

FRIDAY short TAKES.

Hectoring, condescending, and deplorable shaming: no way to win elections.  "Since a misguided refugee resettlement effort, things haven’t been going all that smoothly, and your average Swede thinks things pretty well suck. This means he is chastised repeatedly by the government as mad, a racist, or shut up already, tiresome peasant." What's Swedish for "turf them out?" "Ergo people are voting that they’ve had quite enough, thank you."  Not convinced enough?  "Since the Democrats achieved their governing trifecta in 2020, they have presided over a cascading series of domestic and foreign policy disasters while displaying transparent contempt for the Constitution."  Believe what you see.  "When the president says “watch me,” does he not realize we all have been watching him since he took office and we definitively don’t like what we see?"  Oh, and better watch that ultra-MAGA-fascist talk.  "If liberals insist that enforcing borders is a job only fascists will do, then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals won’t."


The weekly round-up of pithy elaborations on traditional Cold Spring Shops themes follows.

21.9.22

LET'S GET TO THE HEART OF THE MATTER.

Byron York does.  "Everyone is talking about how to accommodate illegal border crossers once they are in the country and not about how to prevent people from crossing illegally into the U.S."

You'd think that would be obvious, but obvious doesn't do nuance, while the chattering classes get paid by the nuance.
Isn't the real problem the enormous numbers of people crossing into the U.S.? And how to reduce that number? And how to deal with those who do manage to sneak across to make sure that only the relatively small number who have legitimate asylum claims are allowed to stay? Isn't that the real problem?

Instead of dealing with the real problem, everything the Biden administration has done since Day One has been to increase the incentive for would-be immigrants to cross illegally into the U.S. Arguing over how best to accommodate illegal crossers, rather than arguing over how best to return the vast majority of them back across the border, increases the incentive for those considering unlawful entry into the U.S. They know their arrival might set off a debate over whether they should be allowed to stay in El Paso or be sent to Martha's Vineyard, but either way, they stay in the U.S. — their ultimate goal.
I submit that the border state governors shipping out illegal crossers is a last resort, when the national government will neither enforce the borders nor provide the resources to the border states.  That Damon Linker is being played is a bonus.
I’m sorry, my center-right friends, but you’re being played. It’s true that immigration policy in this country is a complete mess. It’s true that the southern border has frequently been overwhelmed in recent years and that this is unsustainable. It’s true that the Biden administration has been paralyzed in responding to the problem because of deep division within the Democratic Party over immigration—just as Congress as a whole has been paralyzed since at least the early 2010s by similar deep divisions in the electorate as a whole.

All of it is bad. The way forward is far from clear. But what’s abundantly clear is that a couple of ambitious and mean-spirited Republican governors using migrants to give Democrats the finger and inspire high fives among the most anti-immigrant faction of the GOP base is only going to make things worse. That’s the way it will always be when politics gets reduced to the performance of practical jokes on political enemies. It’s guaranteed to result in more anger, greater polarization, and less commitment to finding a way forward on the policies that divide us, very much including on immigration.
Right, the usual common room rhetoric about "mean spirited" and "anti-immigrant faction" is a good way to lower the temperature. Rich Lowry writes, Sorry, no.
The crux of the matter is that the Biden administration dismantled or downgraded every policy that had established control over the southern border under his predecessor and is directly responsible for the record number of illegal immigrants flooding into the country. If the influx weren't so large, there'd be fewer migrants to sign up for the bus trips sponsored by Texas and Arizona to send them north and east to blue cities.

Everyone should agree it'd be much better if President Joe Biden reversed field and sought to control the border. Texas and Arizona would no longer be getting inundated and therefore would have less incentive to send migrants further inland. If that were the case, places like Washington, DC, and New York City wouldn't be receiving thousands of new migrants and wouldn't have to declare emergencies and request the National Guard to help cope.

If the border states are treating migrants as "pawns," give them fewer pieces on the board. If they are engaged in unworthy "stunts," remove the incentive to make theatrical gestures in the first place. Reduce the temperature by controlling the problem at the source.

The truth of the matter is that prior to Texas and Arizona undertaking their programs — and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis adding his attention-grabbing flights to Martha's Vineyard — illegal immigrants were already getting moved around the country, with the assent of the Department of Homeland Security. The federal government gives migrants permission to travel within the country, and private organizations get them on buses to go to their preferred destinations.
That won't happen. "In other words, the Biden administration may not want migrants showing up in Martha's Vineyard, but there will be plenty of newcomers settling all over the United States, in a never-ending flow."

SOMEBODY TELL DON LEMON TO SUPPORT HIS LOCAL GRAND ARMY OF THE REPUBLIC CHAPTER.

That's Don Lemon, as in one of the race-hustler commentators depressingly common on television, who thought he could score a few cheap points on the British Monarchy.
[H]e asked British royal commentator Hillary Fordwich whether the British royal family should pay reparations, claiming that some in the United Kingdom “want to be paid back.”

“England is facing rising costs of living, a living crisis, austerity budget cuts, and so on. And then you have those who are asking for reparations for colonialism, and they’re wondering, you know, $100 billion, $24 billion here and there, $500 million there,” Lemon explained. “Some people want to be paid back, and members of the public are wondering, ‘Why are we suffering when you are, you know, you have all of this vast wealth?’ Those are legitimate concerns.”

Her response was epic. After initially giving the impression that she agreed with Lemon, she schooled him royally.

“Well, I think you’re right about reparations in terms of if people want it, though, what they need to do is you always need to go back to the beginning of a supply chain,” Fordwich replied. “Where was the beginning of the supply chain? That was in Africa, and when it crossed the entire world, when slavery was taking place, which was the first nation in the world that abolished slavery? The first nation world to abolish it, it was started by William Wilberforce, was the British. In Great Britain, they abolished slavery.”

She continued, “Two thousand naval men died on the high seas trying to stop slavery. Why? Because the African kings were rounding up their own people, they had them on cages waiting in the beaches. No one was running into Africa to get them. And I think you’re totally right.”

The look on Lemon’s face was priceless. Fordwich succeeded in agreeing with him, although for different reasons than he was obviously suggesting. And she wasn’t done with the lesson.

“If reparations need to be paid, we need to go right back to the beginning of that supply chain and say, ‘Who was rounding up their own people and having them handcuffed in cages?’ Absolutely. That’s where they should start. And maybe, I don’t know, the descendants of those families where they died at the, in the high seas trying to stop the slavery, that those families should receive something too, I think, at the same time.”
Wonderful! Too often, people will either get defensive, or equivocate, or otherwise grant the point in a squishy way.  Apparently Mr Lemon never watched the opening of Battle of Britain, in which the King's Ambassador in Switzerland declines the German Ambassador's offer of surrender terms with "You can't threaten us or dictate to us until you're marching up Whitehall.  And even then we wouldn't listen."  (That was a dramatization.  There was, in real life, a radio response that had something like "we hurl it back in your foul-smelling teeth" in it.)

Rod Dreher endorses that sort of response, if perhaps, in a more polite form.  "Push back against the Left's moralized fake history when given the opportunity."  He continues, with a variation on the equivocation that often comes up in discussions in reparations, albeit with an extension of Ms Fordwich's concluding remarks.
But in most cases, after the passage of time, it becomes impossible to calculate the debt, morally or financially. It becomes not really a matter of seeking justice for the past, but of jockeying for power and position in the present. How can we possibly calculate the cost to families of white Union soldiers who died or were maimed fighting to end slavery? Or, following the line of discussion introduced by Fordwich above, the British sailors who lost their lives fighting to end the transatlantic slave trade?
Perhaps Mr Lemon, now that he's a less active personality on CNN, might pay the Minnesota State Capitol a visit.
[T]he cladding of the Capitol was originally to be Georgia marble. The Grand Army of the Republic, still active in Minnesota politics at the turn of the twentieth century, would not hear of it. Minnesota was the last state into the Union before South Carolina voted to leave, and Minnesotans took a great interest in restoring the Union, oversubscribing the first call-up from Abraham Lincoln.
There's instructive art inside, if he knows where to look. "Elsewhere, there are ... paintings of Minnesota regiments liberating Corinth and Nashville and Vicksburg and Little Rock and Missionary Ridge and holding the line at Gettysburg."  That "holding the line at Gettysburg" was not trivial.  "Power Line's Scott Johnson invokes Colonel Chamberlain along with the 20th Maine he commanded, and the First Minnesota as instrumental in stopping the Rebels on July 2 at Gettysburg, a development that along with Vicksburg's surrender on July 4 persuaded United States leadership (at levels subordinate to President Lincoln) to begin thinking about victory."

The First Minnesota were almost wiped out in that effort.  Emancipation became a reality all the same.  Don Lemon is free to spout off on CNN as a consequence.  Might there be some descendants of First Minnesota families, or perhaps, as Ms Fordwich notes, descendants of some of those Jack Tars, who could use a little help, say, getting Christmas dinner set up?

20.9.22

OKTOBERFEST SEASON IS UNDER WAY.

And the Spanferkl are roasting.


That's the Milwaukee area Oktoberfest at the Bavarian Bierhaus on the tony north shore.  That's usually home to some youth soccer games, which are themselves cause for optimism, what with kids of all ethnicities playing for the Bavaria team, and a team wearing the red-and-white of Polonia can show up, also with kids of all ethnicities, and nothing like the kind of adult conflict that used to accompany those tilts.

The pitch was home to what you do, as Milwaukee's Cardinal Stritch College did, when you don't have a football team: you have your athletic reunion between the footie games.  Trinity Christian out of Illinois provided the opposition.  What did I say about that deep bench in women's footie?


That's how it went, all game, every ball contested, nobody wanting to let a ball go out of bounds if at all possible.


I'd note that the kids were battling as intensely as if it's the United States playing Sweden with the World Cup on the line, but apparently some of the players are from overseas (and might be on scholarships?)  One goal came on a free kick.  (Don't ask me what the free kick rules are.  I can't figure out how the officials call offsides without benefit of a blue line.)


Trinity committed the kind of foul for which a penalty kick is awarded late in the game, and the end result was a draw.

The men's game was not that close, as the Stritch team were much better at what I understand as back-checking and headman passing than their opponents.

The beer, food, and oom-pah music were as expected.

Find yourself an Oktoberfest and go to it.

THE MONUMENTS WE'VE DESTROYED.

A photograph from the funeral service for Queen Elizabeth II captures the moment.


When Elizabeth became queen, Winston Churchill, who still thought of his new queen as "a child," was back at Downing Street.  Nothing can be as unlovely as a war won, unless it is a war lost, and Britain's politicians went from nationalising the "commanding heights" to privatising them to who knows what.  Well, perhaps the vandalism of Mr Churchill's statue during the 2020 summer of rage was also unlovely.

The Queen's final official act was to ask Liz Truss, these days of the same party as Mr Churchill, to form a government.  There might be, in the criticism the new prime minister is taken for the lack of viewpoint diversity in her government, hope for a rediscovery of right reason.
When Diversity Isn’t the Right Kind of Diversity
Liz Truss, the new Conservative prime minister, announced her cabinet, and for the first time ever, not a single member of the inner circle — what’s referred to as the Great Offices of State — is a white man. . .

Did the left break into applause? Were there hosannas throughout progressive Twitter heralding this racial, ethnic and gender diversity as a step forward for society?

Not exactly.

Instead, the change was dutifully relayed, often with caveats. “Liz Truss’s cabinet: diverse but dogmatic,” noted The Guardian. The new team was criticized as elite, the product of schools like Eton, Cambridge and the Sorbonne. These people aren’t working class, others pointed out. They don’t sufficiently support the rights of those seeking asylum in Britain or policies that address climate change.

Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, a think tank that focuses on issues of immigration, integration and national identity, told CNN, “It’s not an advance on social class terms.”
Perhaps Power Line's Steven Hayward is right to call attention, "The trouble is that for many of the same people, ethnic and racial diversity count only when combined with a particular point of view," to the symbolism over substance that arises, as is often the case in higher education, when that most inclusive faculty, or most inclusive administrative staff, is stocked with people who share the same perspective: and that only becomes a problem when the shared perspective is not a left perspective.

Fair enough, albeit, if our quest for viewpoint diversity in the common room is a desirable thing, or if looking at the credential-heavy, incompetent despite its diversity Biden inner circle as something other than an "advance on social class terms" leads to the beginning of wisdom be in looking for viewpoint diversity in the common room (if not necessarily in a government: the point of forming a government being to carry out a party manifesto) or for background diversity (whether in schooling, or town of origin) in the inner circle of the head of the government be a good thing?  Perhaps even a step toward establishing a state of good repair in circles that are not known for their competence?

There are other destroyed monuments to contemplate, though.  Harry Truman was about to be replaced by Dwight Eisenhower as President of the United States: the leader who saw the War through to an end and told Joe Stalin "nice try" in the Pacific Rim, succeeded by the wartime commander.  Seventy years later, Donald Trump was replaced by Joe Biden, whose attempt to be the next Franklin Roosevelt doesn't even rise to the level of a nice try.  Nothing bespeaks the squandering of the victory dividend quite like that recent lineup of "leaders of the free world," does it, particularly in this century?

Next, dear reader, consider Joe Stalin, eventually to be succeeded by Nikita Khrushchev, a series of functionaries, and now Vladimir Putin, who fancies himself the next Ivan the Terrible.  At the beginning of the queen's reign, China was sort of part of the Soviet orbit, but once Chairman Mao got his ruling court in order, he went his own way, and his heirs have ambitions of making China the world's leading power for the centennial of their 1949 victory.  Good luck with that.  "China correctly identified semiconductors and semiconductor equipment as key technologies for truly becoming the world’s preeminent technological manufacturing giant. Unfortunately for them (and fortunately for us), the CCP’s endemic culture of corruption and their top-down command economy are antithetical to the onrush of capitalist technological innovation."

The Queen might have, unwittingly, been a living symbol of a global international order that has outlived its usefulness.  Its replacement, however, is not yet emerging.

YOUR SEMESTER-BEGINNING REMINDER ABOUT BLACKBOARD ECONOMICS.

Here was my parting shot.
The Welfare Economics Paradigm is so easy to diagram on a blackboard, and its conclusions make presumptive social engineers comfortable with their prejudices.  Peter Boettke notes, though, that for blackboard economics to work, the people who implement policies must behave in exactly the fully-informed, public-spirited way the model dictates.
Donald "Cafe Hayek" Boudreaux reminds us they don't.
Interventionists typically describe lovely outcomes and then posit a handful of measures for government officials to impose – measures for ham-fistedly prohibiting this large class of actions, penalizing that other large class of actions, and subsidizing yet some other other large class of actions. Selling their schemes to the public in terms of excellent promised outcomes, the means that interventionists propose for government to use to achieve these outcomes – and to do so without giving rise to worse unintended consequences – are never formulated and calibrated to account for the great, unseen complexity of the economic and social phenomena that must be successfully rearranged if the interventionists’ schemes are to have any hope of successfully achieving the interventionists’ stated goals.
Humility, though, has not been a personality trait of technocrats.

IT'S GETTING HARDER TO FIND MODEL CIRCUSES.

A few years ago, I noted that the modellers were capturing the essential elements of the itinerant circus.  "If you can't find one in full scale, you might be able to find one in model form."

That just got harder.
A child would step into a world bathed in crimson light. She’d hear the hiss and toot of a steam whistle organ.

The tease of the circus announcer: “You’ll see Jolly Marge, the heaviest human being alive! … And Tiny Timothy, the smallest man on Earth!”

And then she’d spy, at her own eye level, the golden lights in the big top and tiny, rickety figures dangling far above the safety net. Perhaps she’d dream of one day becoming a trapeze artist.

For the better part of five decades, thousands of children — and grownups, too — experienced the thrill of the circus while strolling through an exhibit on the art form at the Museum of Science and Industry.

For many it was magical, for others, like a nightmare scene from a bad horror flick. But for all, it is now just a memory. The remaining two dozen or so items — including 10 hand-made dioramas with mechanical moving figures — were removed earlier this month to make way for a new exhibit.

Traditional circuses, like rotary phones and drive-in movies, don’t have the same appeal they once did.

“We want to always be relevant to our audience,” said Kathleen McCarthy, the museum’s director of collections and head curator. “Science and technology is a field that really advances quickly. So this content is nostalgic. While really enjoyable and entertaining, we just thought we needed the space to introduce new content.”
Let us be grateful that those funhouse mirrors, which are illustrations of optical principles that can also be used to peer into the universe, didn't get cancelled for fostering fat-shaming.


Circus modellers are still at work, although those of us who model the itinerant railroad circus are becoming fewer in number and higher in median age.  With the over-winter model railroad show season, though, the circus model shows will still be available for your viewing pleasure.

See you down the road.

19.9.22

RESPECT.







GOVERNOR PRITZKER TRAILS BY 19,467.

From the beginning of this series, a year and a half ago, we noted, "The geographic area and population of Illinois are both similar to those in Sweden, and there are similarities of the Chicago and Stockholm metropolitan areas.  But  Springfield politicians are hazardous to your health."

It's not only the corona tyranny.  The ever-hilarious Neil Steinberg describes Illinois as "girding itself as an oasis of Blue liberty in the Red desert of fundamentalism."  That "oasis of Blue liberty" is so appealing that You Tube has slapped an R rating on a brief clip of that liberty at work.



So very conscientious of the Sun-Times.  Mr Steinberg and the other preening virtue-signallers columns are at the top of the web page.  Scroll down for the drive-by shootings, carjackings, stabbings, more shootings, and all the other things that make up a mostly peaceful weekend in Chicago and the environs.

Although the Jarrett regency's figurehead might have declared an end to the pandemic, no doubt to the dismay of some of his inner circle, fellow-travelling potbellied dictator J. B. Pritzker has not yet ended the emergency decrees.  These posts will continue until the emergency decrees end, or the governor leaves office.  If the corona tyranny isn't enough to turf him out, the soft-on-crime policies, punitive taxation, and underachieving schools ought to be.  There is such sentiment.  "When Bruce Merrell casts his ballot for governor this November, he’ll be thinking about education, COVID-19, roads, transportation and corruption."  The corona tyranny, in particular, is what Combine Democrats do.  "[M]any [Centralia and 'Little Egypt'] locals are still upset over the Democratic governor’s pandemic mandates that shuttered businesses and schools. They see it as a stripping of liberty and choice that they just can’t forgive."  Nor should they.  Turf them out.

A service called Worldometers has been keeping track of coronavirus infections and deaths, disaggregated in a number of ways.  With local, state, and federal governments in the United States changing the way they count infections (and they might be rethinking how they classify deaths) I'm not sure how valid any numbers, even from a service consistently used from month to month, is.

The latest report from Sweden counts 2,578,521 infections, up by 26,525 from last month, and 20,069 deaths, a change of 572 from that report.

The latest report from Illinois counts 3,733,902 infections, an increase of 113,025 over last month and 39,536 deaths, adding 428 to the Pritzker Body Count in one month.  Local media say little about hospital utilization.

As of this afternoon, the state continues to count around 29 million doses of the various vaccines administered; they've updated their tally to disaggregate among finished and partial vaccinations.  The state no longer counts the scary variants.  The mid-September mix of infections is almost all BA.x strains of Omicron.

Let me reiterate: if the potbellied dictator and the rest of the Combine are returned to office in November, Illinoisans can expect no sympathy from me when the retail taxes go back on, and go up, and the power goes off, and the jails empty out.

At the start of the academic year, the governor trailed by 19,611.
At St. Patrick's Day, the governor trailed by 19,580.
At Valentine's Day, the governor trailed by 19,533.
At the National Day of Service, the governor trailed by 17,062.

Note the time series: a margin of terror that used to be growing by hundreds in a week was growing by  less, that is, until the ukases went back into effect.  The details for earlier in 2021 and the end of 2020 are on page 2.