TAIL TRACK.

Barring signal troubles, links to any posts of substance ought to work.

DETERMINISTIC CHAOS.

Could a Tilt-a-Whirl provide insights into the behavior of galaxies spinning around a black hole?

The Tilt-A-Whirl, for example, spins its passengers in one direction, then another, sometimes hesitating between forays and sometimes swinging abruptly from one motion to another. A rider never knows exactly what to expect next.

Yet these complicated, surprising movements arise from a remarkably simple geometry. A passenger rides in one of seven cars, each mounted near the edge of its own circular platform but free to pivot about the center. The platforms, in turn, move at a constant speed along an undulating circular track that consists of three identical hills separated by valleys, which tilt the platforms.  The platform movements are perfectly regular, but the cars whirl around independently in an irregular manner. Moreover, there is essentially just one adjustable parameter–the rate at which the platforms move around the track.

When the platforms travel at very low speeds, the cars complete one backward revolution as their platforms go over each hill. In contrast, at high speeds a car gets slammed to its platform’s outer edge and stays locked in that position. In both cases, the motion is predictable.

What happens at intermediate speeds?

To model dynamical systems like the Tilt-A-Whirl, mathematicians, scientists, and engineers use equations that describe how the positions and velocities of a system and its components change over time in response to certain forces.

It’s convenient to characterize a system’s dynamics by plotting how its position and velocity evolve over time. Each plotted point represents the system’s state of motion at a particular instant, and successive points generate a winding line through an imaginary mathematical space (known as phase space) representing all possible motions. Different starting points generally initiate different curves.

A simple, repeating motion, like the to-and-fro oscillations of a swinging pendulum, appears as a circle or some other closed curve. Such a plot shows that the system cycles through precisely the same state of motion again and again at regular intervals.

More complicated sequences of movements produce tangled paths that wander through phase space, sometimes never forming a closed loop.

That's without the clutch operator selectively reducing or increasing the speed of rotation the better to get a car into an extreme spin cycle.  You get sufficient deterministic chaos without the clutch operator.

To describe the Tilt-A-Whirl’s dynamics, physicists Bret M. Huggard of Northern Arizona University and Richard L. Kautz of the National Institute of Standards and Technology found a mathematical equation that approximates the motion of an idealized Tilt-A-Whirl. In essence, the movements of an individual car resemble those of a friction-impaired pendulum hanging from a support that is both rotating and being rocked back and forth while the pendulum swings. Solving the equation determines how a Tilt-A-Whirl car would behave under various conditions.

That's right, there was a publishable article on the physics of the Tilt-a-Whirl.

The resulting jumbled mixture of car rotations never repeats itself exactly, which gives the Tilt-A-Whirl its lively and unpredictable character. Indeed, no two trips are ever likely to produce exactly the same thrills and chills.

At the same time, the mathematical model used by Kautz and Huggard predicts that chaotic motion would occur at a speed close to the 6.5 revolutions per minute at which the ride is normally operated.

Interestingly, Tilt-A-Whirl fanatics know by experience that they can actually take advantage of this sensitivity. They can affect the motion of a car by throwing their weight from side to side at crucial moments, turning cycles with little or no action into thrilling whirls.

"Thus, it would seem that aficionados of the Tilt-A-Whirl have known for some time that chaotic systems can be controlled using small perturbations," Huggard and Kautz observed.

It turns out that Tilt-A-Whirl operators can also take advantage of this sensitivity. Software engineer Dave Boll described his experience one summer running a Tilt-A-Whirl, "which is easily the most entertaining carnival ride to operate."

Why? The operator can actually orchestrate the movement of individual cars. A single lever controls the ride's speed, so an operator can slightly retard or accelerate the ring of platforms at any moment. By applying just the right amount of velocity change at exactly the right time, it's possible to spin a particular car. For example, if a car is currently not spinning, is about to go uphill, and is positioned toward the inside, accelerating the platform will send the car into a very fast spin.

That orchestration might shake some change loose from a rider's pockets, or it might require that spinning car to be hosed out afterwards.  But I digress.

The scholarly article is "Chaos at the amusement park: Dynamics of the Tilt‐A‐Whirl" in American Journal of Physics, and the Computer Science club of the University of Waterloo have archived the reprint.  The laws of physics imply that at low rotational speeds of the platform, a car completes one backward circle from bottom to next bottom, while at high rotational speeds, centrifugal force wins and the car remains at the outer edge of its track.  What happens at intermediate speeds requires 39 equations to characterize.

According to Trentonian contributor Jeff Edelstein, the Tilt-a-Whirl is life.  "Dizzying. Chaotic. Uncertain. Filled with laughter and fear and a one-time ticket to ride."

The astronomy or cosmology?  I'll leave that to others.

FISCAL INCONTINENCE.

In Reason, Veronique deRugy notes, "Lawmakers have to show they'll back the national debt with future fiscal surpluses, which means reining in government spending."  That echoes the ancient Keynesian policy prescription of balancing the federal budget over the business cycle, which back in the day came bundled with the idea that a fiscal policy so conceived could help fine-tune the economy, with the deficits mitigating the pain in downturns and the surpluses putting a check on investors and consumers during expansions.

IT'S STILL SURRENDERING WITH A SHRUG.

Here I have long stood.

For a long time, Cold Spring Shops has called attention to the folly of admitting unprepared students and calling it access.  "[S]tate institutions that were separate but not equal during Jim Crow remain less than equal today.  And thus, does access beget assessment and remediation and fretting about retention."  We've always been clear-eyed about where that leads.  "When you admit unprepared students and call it access, what do you have to do to boost retention?"

Apparently, you retain by accommodating the unpreparedness.  “Students on University of California campuses may struggle with basic math, but they are graduating at record rates.”

PROFESSIONAL SPORTS IS A YOUNG PERSON'S GAME.

The Milwaukee Brewers last night secured their fourth straight division championship.  "Yelich, Woodruff relish standing as last ones left from 2018 division champs."  That's Christian Yelich, 2018 Most Valuable Player, and Brandon Woodruff, the last pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run in a playoff game.

The Chicago Cubs will likely be a playoff team, although for the third straight season since they recruited Craig Counsell away from the Brewers, their coaching staff and their big payroll has not won the division.  There has been a Central Division for years, with good Cardinals or Reds teams being all over the record books, and yet, neither of those teams put together four straight division wins.

There's still a lot of playoff baseball coming, and we'll see how well the Brewers, with a roster of relative newcomers, fare.  There is Sprecher chilling.

THE THOUSAND DESCRIPTIONS OF RENT SEEKERS.

In The Daily Economy, Vincent Geloso comes up with an infelicitous new one, "beefsteak socialists," brownish on the outside, red on the inside, that brown referring to a shirt, to describe a Rube Goldberg-esque accretion of reform upon reform that provides plenty of work for bureaucrats and rent-seekers, each accretion further reducing allocative efficiency.

Two problems immediately emerged. First, this enlargement of government power raised the value of possessing government. Second, government interventions produce unintended consequences. As a result, rather than repeal the original measure, governments frequently respond with another intervention, followed by another. The unintended consequences multiply, and so do the interventions. Growth grinds down to a halt.

There is a risk in blowing all the interventions up and starting over.  Mr Geloso uses the accretion of interventions in Chile leading to a quasi-Marxist government gaining control over a corpse, after which a military coup and shock therapy might have been the most extreme form of starting over.  On a smaller scale, abolishing the Interstate Commerce Commission and privatizing Conrail might have done some good, that is, until the regulatory state started adding on again.

That, Mr Geloso argues, is the nature of public choice: rent-seekers and careerists in the saddle.

The danger for the United States is not that it has reproduced Chile in 1973. It plainly has not. (Yet.) The danger is that American politics is beginning to reproduce the underlying dynamic: rival movements encouraging one another to abandon liberal restraints.

By "liberal restraints," he means modestly ambitious governance with enumerated, separated, and limited powers.  That's not how one makes a name in "public service," and that's how things go wrong.  "There must first be a long process of politicization of every aspect of social and economic life. Reverse that politicization and you halt the weakening."

GREAT MOMENTS IN LEFTIST LUNACY.

Crystal Davis rings all the changes.

As a Black woman who works at the intersection of parks and water, I am watching the ongoing push to restore protections at Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante closely. We know that access to the outdoors is already racialized in this country, much like access to clean air or safe drinking water.

Is that intersection north or south of wells and water?  Somehow an ongoing spat between ranchers and conservationists in Utah, with Barack Obama expanding the boundaries of western monuments it's probably wise to have an air-conditioned four-wheel drive car to get to, only for Donald Trump to shrink them for Joe Biden ... you know how this is going to play out.

In her weird anthropology, the industrialization that made the Great Migration North possible somehow provides a new unity in oppression, or something.

Today, many Black neighborhoods are cut off from the waterways that sustained earlier generations. Despite their cultural and ecological importance, many lakes and streams across the Midwest and the country have been industrialized, polluted, or paved over. This has real consequences for community health and safety, from deadly flooding to toxic taps.

What earthly connection "this" has to do with the latest round of cowboys and Indians in Utah I don't know, but at Common Dreams, emoting trumps logic.

Fortunately, parks and clean water are two areas where people across the political spectrum agree: The public good must be put above corporate profit, keeping public lands in public hands, and preventing pollution at the source to ensure safe and affordable water in every home in America. And we’re seeing people rise up.

Nowhere in her lament over those western monuments do we see any acknowledgement of how badly those public lands have been mismanaged by those public hands.  Sad!

TRAINS ARE MADE FOR RUNNING.

Facebook keep offering me unsolicited Advice For Elderly Persons including "13 Things Model Train Dealers Quietly Notice About Collections Owned by Someone Over 70 in the First 5 Minutes."

The article is about people who treat trains as investments, and they behave like speculators in matchbooks and sports cards.  The first item on the list seems sensible.  "Whether the Original Boxes Are Still There."  Not because those boxes are useful for protecting the rolling stock in the event of a move and when the owner crosses the final summit.

The very first thing a dealer scans for isn’t the trains themselves. It’s the cardboard sitting next to them.

Original packaging protects against dust, moisture, and warping, and its presence signals a collector who understood what they had. A box in solid shape quietly raises the offer before a single piece even changes hands.

There's even a category called "new in box" referring to rolling stock that has not been taken out of the box.

I suppose we could have figured the article was going to be crazy based on one of the images of the appraiser at work.

Gemini image retrieved from Climate Cosmos.

If you know, you know.

Let the record show that if it's property of Cold Spring Shops, it's going to run.

THAT MOSLEM BABUSHKA.

In Belgium, it's apparently a prohibited political statement.

Hadija Amajoud, who has taught at a provincial special education school in Assenede since 2022, was wearing a headscarf when she began working at the school, accoridng to local broadcaster VRT as cited by Anadolu Agency.

A disciplinary procedure was launched after Amajoud made clear that she did not intend to remove her headscarf while teaching.

The ACOD trade union said it intends to challenge the dismissal before the Chamber of Appeal in Brussels, saying that the case could establish an important precedent concerning religious freedom and neutrality in education.

Amajoud questioned how far an employer can go in restricting a teacher's personal freedom and described the provincial administration's interpretation of neutrality as "purely political."

"Actually, no one is neutral. Every teacher stands in front of a class with his or her own convictions," she said.

Margaret "University Diaries" Soltan objects to that very postmodern "his or her own convictions."

In free societies, teachers strive to keep their convictions away from the front of the class, so that liberal, exploratory discourse can prevail.

This woman – who has lost her teaching job because she refuses to take off her hijab while in front of a room of students in Belgium – thinks God commands her to express her religious convictions, and model female modesty, at all times. Her conviction of this is so intense that she – unlike many Muslim women – would never think of removing her scarf for the duration of her classes. She would rather ruin her life than follow the law on this. The law is secular, and in this instance that doesn’t count.

That might say more about life in an industrialized tribal society, which is what Belgium is, as distinct from a free republic in which tribe is secondary.  That Moslem babushka might, to European eyes, be a symbol either of the submission of women under the submission that is Islam, or of the hopes of Islam to conquer Europe.

But for the name of all that is holy, we are talking about a teacher in a special education class.  We are not contemplating a judge of Jewish extraction who covers himself, or a traffic cop with a crucifix, and in These United States, none of these ought to be (perhaps on rare occasion it is) grounds for a civil rights suit.

The professor's question about another school setting is also a chance to defend classical liberalism.  "How free would a budding feminist in a middle school feel to talk about cultures that hide women under hijabs and heavy robes, and call for sex-restricted swimming and other forms of gender separation?"  There might be more polite ways to frame that question.  There might be more peer pressure on that budding feminist to not be weird.  There might also be opportunities for that teacher in a babushka to question some of what she had been taught, and there's a good chance any of her own children, should such children exist, rebel against mom's old country ways.

SOONER THAN YOU THINK.

The crashing in of the real debt ceiling, that is, which is when bond traders buy Treasuries only at deep discounts.  How deep is deep?  Ask the man who trades them for a living?  "Ballooning US debt is a ticking time bomb, billionaire investor David Rubenstein says."

Economists have long contemplated, in the abstract, government activity crowding out private sector investing or consumer spending.  Mr Rubenstein is fretting about government interest payments crowding out government spending on armaments.

"We have, as everybody now knows, $40 trillion of debt. Now, historically, if you go back over the last, let's say, 300 or 400 years, whenever a country paid more interest on its debt than it did for its national security, that's a sign of weakness in the country. Right now, we've crossed that threshold. We're now paying more in interest every year than we are paying on our national defense, and we're paying a trillion dollars in interest, a little bit more than that now, but we pay about a trillion dollars in national defense. And as that continues, the interest goes up, and the money available for defense goes down. That tends to weaken your national security."

That might depend on the going concern value of the United States, as people might still be willing to hold Treasuries to finance the production of Tomahawks and Patriots and all the other tools the Pentagon possess to stay protected against flying Iranian gas mains and whatever else the primitives are cobbling together, and the dollar might still be less shaky than all the other candidates for global reserve currency.

That noted, those deep discounts might present gradually at first.  "Surging US Treasury yields are starting to spook investors."  All at once, sooner than you think?

A "disorderly bond sell-off" is now the top market tail risk. Investors remain bullish, however, on corporate earnings, the AI investment cycle, and economic growth.

US Treasury yields have faced upward pressure throughout September, driven by persistent signs of inflation and elevated crude oil prices.

"Disorderly bond sell-off" is trader-speak for "all at once."  Buckle in.

LET'S GET REAL ABOUT CRUDE OIL PRICES.

Markets adapt.

Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels in real and nominal terms.

Brent is near $96 per barrel. In today's dollars, the 2008 crisis peak was $202, the Arab Spring $183, the 1980 oil shock $162 and the 2022 Ukraine war spike $139.

Each geopolitical event creates new… pic.twitter.com/MA9T1WIVkC

— Daniel Lacalle Official Account (@dlacalle_IA) September 9, 2026

I've had ample occasion to contemplate the real price of crude oil and its distillates over the years.  It's up to somebody else to do the research capturing the effect of additional interfuel substitutions that might not have been on the market twenty years ago.  I'll leave it to others to put together a Mark J. Perry Venn diagram involving people objecting to the current war against Iran while favoring the continuation of Ukraine's war with Russia when the subject of, oh, disrupted diesel fuel supplies comes up.

THROWING MONEY AROUND.

You can take the proposal seriously, as National Review editors do.

Reflexive apologists for Trump’s proposal have tended to focus on the sins of the other party — pointing, for instance, to the unnecessary and inflationary stimulus checks that the Democrats issued in 2021, and to President Joe Biden’s illegal attempt to forgive student loans. But this isn’t a defense, so much as a confession. Those policies were bad, and the Republican Party opposed them. That they were attempted was a disgrace; it was not a catch-all excuse for further reckless behavior. Whatever problems may exist in the American economy in 2026, there is no need for a round of debt-financed $5,000 checks. The central problem of our political era is the persistence of inflation and the associated increases in the cost of everyday goods. Trump’s suggestion would worsen, rather than improve, that issue.

The role of the federal government within the U.S. economy ought to be to provide a stable framework within which free people may thrive. When it taxes, it ought to tax predictably and consistently, with the purpose of covering its spending. When it spends, it ought to spend on those functions that only the national government can fulfill. President Trump’s proposal cannot be squared with the federal government’s proper role — nor, for that matter, can it be justly described as “policy.”

Or, following the Babylon Bee, satire is the best response. "Trump Pledges That If Voters Defeat Socialism In November, They Will Each Get An Equal Redistribution Of Wealth From The Government."  I vaguely remember something called Ricardian equivalence, and Robert Barro asking, "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?"  There might be a corollary involving helicopter droppings, er, printed money, although even in a hyperinflationary environment, having a windfall of helicopter droppings leaves you slightly less badly off than if they fall on your neighbor.

LET THE THING BE PRESSED.

The mullahs' cheering section at Common Dreams includes one Negar Mortazavi, who asserts, "Trump Cannot Win the Iran War."  Scroll down, though, and enjoy the cope.

Iran does not need to defeat the United States conventionally. To deny Washington a decisive political victory, it needs only to preserve its governing institutions, retain sufficient retaliatory capacity, and make continued warfare costly enough that the United States cannot impose its preferred outcome at an acceptable price.

How many pallets of rial did she get paid for that clanker, and how valuable will they be next week?

Iran cannot match the United States and Israel militarily. But it benefits from geography, a strategy tailored to a stronger adversary, and the advantages of fighting on its own territory, as well as a leadership that views the conflict as existential and has shown a willingness to absorb enormous costs rather than surrender. After six months, that military pressure has still not brought Washington closer to securing its demands. The United States can continue to destroy targets and degrade Iranian capabilities, but unless that pressure changes Iran’s political calculations, further escalation risks producing more destruction without producing a settlement.

That pressure might be having the desired effect.

Israel's Channel 14 reported from sources inside the regime that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the blusterous blowhard serving as Iran's Parliament Speaker, was caught admitting to others inside the government that the regime won't be able to stand this economic pressure much longer.

That's Duane Patterson in Hot Air, itself a propaganda site, and yet the anaconda's coils well might be tightening. The current national role model is Wimpy, paying you Tuesday for a lamb shank today, "The same way the regime is — by putting everything on credit. As long as everyone just borrows from everyone else but no money actually changes hands, it'll work for a while until the food runs out and the banks collapse."

GRASPING AT PINS.

In July, we noted the National Hurricane Center anticipating a relatively quiet North Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center's Atlantic hurricane forecast is out and it relies on that stronger El Niño.  "NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season."  There was already at least one named Atlantic tropical storm this season.  That heat wave east of the Mississippi during Freedom Weekend?  We used to call that the lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.

That doesn't deter breathless journalists from breathlessly anticipating stirrings in the doldrums.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is tracking significantly behind historical norms and may set a new record for its delayed activity. As of this week, the first hurricane of the season has yet to form, far behind the average first occurrence date of August 11.

The current record for the latest first hurricane formation in the Atlantic is September 11, set by Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and tied by Hurricane Humberto in 2013.

"Historical norms" refers to a moving average over the past eight decades, give or take, and it is the same category error your weather reader says when he predicts tomorrow will be way hotter or way colder "than it should be" or when a month's rainfall comes in above or below that moving average.  Complex adaptive systems do what they do.  As of Saturday, "Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Record for Latest First Hurricane Formation," in the vacuously true sense that there were none yet.

FACULTY REQUIRING MINDERS?

I'm not sure what to make of a Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression story out of Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville.

Student journalists with The Alestle at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville wanted to do something reporters do every day: interview university employees.

But SIUE’s communications office insisted on coming along and sitting in on multiple interviews between Alestle journalists and university staff. When a student journalist tried to arrange a solo interview, the director of communications said her presence was “non-negotiable” and that “approval of the interview is ultimately [her] decision.”

A branch campus of a directional state university with a history of corruption might be so placed on the academic food chain that one might wonder whether the minders are to protect the faculty from being exposed as career minor leaguers or to protect the students from doing the sort of thing Normal's rejects might do.

PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN.

Venezuela might be better known for exporting baseball players than exporting oil.  Recently, Eugenio Suarez, of the Cincinnati Reds, passed his citizenship test.

His team changed his walk-up music the day he returned to the lineup.

🔥 THIS is how you become an American.

Cincinnati Reds slugger Eugenio Suárez fled Venezuela, missed two games to take the citizenship test, passed, and came back to the ballpark as a U.S. citizen.

His teammates changed his walk-up song to Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the USA.”…

— Louis Montoya (@montoyalouis1) September 6, 2026

Tomi Lahren spent way too much time carping about Colin Kaepernick rather than the music and the home runs.

THE NOT-SO-COLLATERAL DAMAGE OF LIBERATING TOLERANCE.

There's something of a Mark J. Perry Venn diagram to be contemplated featuring "People who denounce white Christian extremism" and "People who denounce people who denounce radical Islamic terrorism."  The good news: one of the family members reading names in New York this morning denounced "radical Islamic terrorism" to the applause of the crowd.

A 9/11 widow just rent rogue in NYC…

She read her husbands name and then called out Islamic terror and Saudi Arabia.

She called out Bush, Obama, Biden and JD Vance/Trump while they sat right in front of her. The entire crowd at ground zero cheered. pic.twitter.com/xICEZL6FOv

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 11, 2026

She's undoubtedly getting grief from the usual suspects.

The first step in undoing the deleterious effects of liberating tolerance, and its obnoxious manifestations in cancel culture is to recognize that it exists, and it is wrong.  Consider, dear reader, the Katyn massacre.

Herbert Marcuse might have been early into his exile, and the 1950s, 1960s attempts by leftist thinkers to distinguish revolutionary from reactionary violence were a few years away.  The institutional left of that era, however, involved cancel culture.  As long as the Hitler-Stalin, Ribbentrop-Molotov agreements to carve up Poland were in place, nobody in the American left would dare say what they ought to have been saying about Nazi Germany.  During the carve-up of Poland, it was Soviet organs of state security murdered those Polish officers, and it was Soviet propagandists who asserted those dead officers were simply another day at the ditch for the Einsatzgruppen.

HERBERT MARCUSE'S BODY COUNT.

Ideas have consequences.  Consider this passage from "Liberating Tolerance," explaining what the Frankfurt School types have in store for Normals.  "Liberating tolerance, then, would mean intolerance against movements from the Right and toleration of movements from the Left."

Yes, we can have a Serious Conversation in the common room about the circumstances under which there is a moral justification of political violence.  That sort of conversation is out of order a year after Charlie Kirk was murdered at a campus appearance in Utah.

Herbert Marcuse's disciples are still at it.  "Marxist University Profs Spew Tone-Deaf Calls for Violence," notes Red State's Ben Sellers.  Perhaps his rogues gallery is edited, the video clips suggest that speaking pejoratively about faculty DEI hires is not off base.  The house organ for all wokeness, all the time, corroborates.  "After Kirk’s Death, a Third of Students Say Posting ‘MAGA’ Is a Fireable Offense."  That's reporting on a recent Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression survey of liberating tolerance in practice.  "Fifty percent of students reported that blocking other students from attending a speech event is OK at least in rare cases, down from 54 percent last year, and 69 percent said the same about shouting down a speaker, compared to 72 percent a year prior."

THIRSTDAY BITTERS.

Now fall semester commenceth, and sorority rush season is upon us.  A year ago, Jared Gould took a jaundiced view of the sorority recruiting videos out of the Southeastern Conference, at a time when nobody envisioned exiling Louisiana State, which caught on with the Wrong Sort of People.

Greek life is, in practice, a class marker. Those who can pay in gain access to mentorship, alumni networks, internships, and lifelong professional connections. Those who can’t are left outside the gates.

Nothing illustrates this more vividly than the recent “RushTok” phenomenon, which turned the University of Alabama’s sorority recruitment into a national spectacle.

Videos of young women in coordinated outfits dancing in front of columned mansions went viral. A friend of mine pointed out that many on the right embraced these clips as a sign of a cultural vibe shift. “In Trump’s America,” the videos implied that, “women are once again unapologetically hot, sociable, and patriotic.”

What the right misses, however, is that these clubs are for the wealthy, by the wealthy, and sustained by wealth. The New York Post reports that some recruits spent thousands on handbags to impress sororities, while parents hired consultants to polish résumés and wardrobes to improve their child’s chances of getting into top houses. Reports also suggest that some sororities weigh a recruit’s zip code—and body count!—as heavily as her GPA, effectively filtering out students from less affluent backgrounds.

The Greek-letter organizations have long been for students to engage in positional arms races.  The passage above follows Mr Gould's meditations on the same sort of thing in the Ivies, where there are eating clubs and there is nothing so crass as a kegger to be seen, and the positional arms race began in day care.  Yeah, right.  That's nothing Mad didn't notice way back in January 1962.  "The layout juxtaposed the idealistic promises of the fraternity recruitment pitches against the cynical, harsh reality of what membership actually looked like."

PATRIOTISM, THE LAST REFUGE OF SCOUNDRELS.

In September of 2023, the Walworth County Democrats were touting that Hope and Change.

In October, Hamas did what comes naturally to jihadis.  The following spring, Dementia Joe challenged frontrunner Donald Trump to a debate, taunting "I hear you're free on Wednesdays."  Dementia Joe's brain failed in prime time, and the party replaced him as nominee.  That was not an improvement.

Earlier this summer, the party primary barely rejected a Madison nutcase in favor of a Milwaukee ward-heeler to stand for governor.

Rather than call attention to their embrace of the crazy, this year's tent at the Walworth County Fair went all in on the Red, White, and Blue.

The absence of crowds might say nothing about how the general election will turn out.  The best thing to do with political displays at county fairs is not to engage, whether it's a major party, a minor party,  or those advocates for an Article V convention or some similar single issue.  Orwell's weirdos hang out with Democrats, no matter how much red, white, and blue they display.

DIAGNOSING AFTER THE FACT IS A TRICKY BUSINESS.

That has not deterred keyboard warriors from commenting on the recent mistrial, in Massachusetts, of Lindsay Clancy.  I recommend psychiatrist Sally Satel's "Here's What the Jury Should Have Found," in The (Not Detroit) Free Press.  Professor Satel is a skeptic of the therapeutic approach to everything (aw well as being sister by a different mother to longtime libertarian Virginia Postrel) and her essay will reward careful study.  The abstract observes, "I believe psychosis drove this mother to kill her children. The jury deadlocked and the judge declared a mistrial. If she is retried, she should not be found criminally responsible."

Therapeutic practice has led to a therapeutic culture in which ever more subtle explanations of people behaving badly has spilled over into explaining away, or enabling, people behaving badly.  Charges and counter-charges focusing on that popular therapeutic culture interfere with clinical understanding of psychosis, which, the professor argues, is real, if rare, and thus difficult to diagnose.  If anything, the professor makes a strong case to keep the research enterprise distinct from the policy environment.

There might have been warning signs, had clinicians noticed.

Clancy’s clinicians should have known that she had experienced boundless energy, racing thoughts, obsessive cleaning, and feelings of elation—a manic state—in the weeks after her son Dawson was born in 2019. Talking to her husband or parents or ob-gyn at the time could provide such data if the patient is not forthcoming. Importantly, a history of postpartum activation or mania is a risk for full-blown postpartum psychosis after the birth of subsequent children.

Clancy’s pharmacological treatment also came in for intense scrutiny by the defense. In all, she received mental-health care from at least six clinicians, who prescribed a total of 13 drugs, including antidepressants, antipsychotics, mood stabilizers, and benzodiazepines (drugs in the Valium family).

Some of these medications exacerbated her already serious condition. Clancy’s first antidepressant, Zoloft, which she tried in the fall of 2022, triggered racing thoughts and a two-day period of no sleep—another suggestion of a bipolar disposition. Also, Zoloft’s strong activating effect on her suggests a potential for bipolar disorder.

None of which will bring her three children back, nor make her future life any better.  Sometimes bad experience can only make future postpartum psychoses (which Professor Satel argues are rare) have better outcomes.

YOU CAN'T RELEGATE US, WE'RE GOING INDEPENDENT.

The corona shutdowns led to the National Collegiate Athletic Association extending years of eligibility, primarily by allowing more generous "redshirting" or designating players for a variation of injured reserve status.  Recently the association reverted to its pre-pandemic eligibility and redshirting rules, but a few players who had corona-era eligibility left finished their collegiate careers and signed with the professional leagues.

At least for the time being.  Consider, dear reader, a college player who signed a pro contract, didn't make the team, and then treats that remaining year of eligibility as a kind of option to return to his college team.  Sounds like the sort of thing lawyers could litigate all day.

Does a collegiate coach, athletic director, or conference commissioner use a variant on "card laid, card played," to tell such returning players, NO, we are pleased to count you among our alumni, and our recruiting pitch offers opportunities to catch the eye of pro scouts, it does not guarantee it.

THERE'S A PROTOTYPE FOR EVERYTHING.

Illinois Railway Museum operated its night trains Saturday and Sunday.  The "coach train" included several of the usual heavyweight coaches, plus sleeper lounge Villa Real, dining car Galt House, not carrying passengers; and ten section observation Inglehome.  Power for the evening was a recently acquired Amtrak F40PH with Operation Lifesaver additional markings.

I wonder if George Gershwin got the idea for Rhapsody in Blue while riding a twelve-wheeled heavyweight car.  Inglehome had a drumhead for the evening.

I could put together a reasonable facsimile of this train, perhaps with a rainbow of paint jobs, and have it orbiting the basement during the upcoming open days.

Hicks Car Works have two photo albums featuring the daytime Saturday operations.

THE FOUNDATION FOR INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS AND EXPRESSION ARE ON THE CHRISTMAS LIST.

Margaret "University Diaries" Soltan might not phrase it that way, but she, too, sends money.

They sue on behalf of professors whose free speech rights have been violated by mindless ideologues at universities. Professors like this computer science guy at U Wash who made fun of the land acknowledgement language that the university urged instructors to put on all their syllabi. Said jesting made somebody significant there vewy vewy mad and the school put the prof under investigation and tried to fire him for harassment blahblahblahblah.

The Foundation sued, and they won.

Land acknowledgements are for mocking.

Cold Spring Shops headquarters is on land that was in Wisconsin Territory before Illinois became a state. We recognize the labor applied by those settlers marking the trails that contemporary Illinoisans use to visit Lake Geneva, the Dells, and Door County, and to watch their teams get owned in Milwaukee and Green Bay.

Another winning season for the Brewers, and playoff preparations might be in the discussion shortly.

A CENTENNIAL.

Somewhere on the midway there ought to be a Tilt-a-Whirl.

The first of these operated at the 1926 Minnesota State Fair.

With screams and giggles, whipping ponytails and white-knuckle grips, Minnesota fairgoers are taking delight in the magic of the Tilt-A-Whirl ride as it turns 100 years old.

The iconic ride and its brightly colored cars debuted at the Minnesota State Fair in 1926, and it has been a mainstay at fairs across the country ever since.

The inventor originally hoped to create a watergoing carroussel that would offer less predictable motion than the up-and-down of a horse on a sliding pole.

Herbert Sellner “created a water merry-go-round and, basically, one boat was driving, and all the other boats were tied together,” [Rice county historian Jenna] Nelson said. “It got destroyed by a storm in 1925.” Herbert’s brother, Martin, suggested adapting it for land.

In January 1926, Sellner started sketching drawings for this new ride, calling it the Tilt-ulator. On April 24, he filed a patent in Minneapolis, and a month later, according to Sellner’s notes, he had made a significant change: The new ride — with nine cars, as one advertisement put it, “tilting, sweeping, spinning, swooping, swaying, speeding, sliding, skidding, rounding, rotating, rising, revolving, hesitating, flying, falling, curving and circling” — would be called the Tilt-A-Whirl.

The concept is elegant.  Motors power a segmented undulating turntable on which nine (now seven) cars freewheel around a center pivot on each segment.  Sometimes a car simply rocks back and forth.  Other times, it gets into a positive feedback loop and pivots ever faster, which might be what the hardcore riders are hoping for.

The ride is powered by seven individual motors around a circle — and gravity makes the car spin around its dips. Weight from the riders shifts the cars’ positions as they lean, sending the cars off balance, said ride operator Thomas Lauthier, who brings his Tilt-A-Whirl to fairs around the country.

Lauthier has been operating the Tilt-A-Whirl at the Minnesota State Fair for the last 12 years. He said Midwesterners have a particular affinity for the ride.

The Sellners were skilled in the woodworking and mechanical arts.

Herbert Sellner was born in Faribault in 1887. His father was a skilled cabinetmaker, and Herbert inherited his father’s creativity and talents. In 1912, at the age of 25, he established the Sellner Woodcraft Company in Faribault to manufacture mission furniture, lamps, and other wood articles. Sellner also created the Ideal Lamp Company. A 1917 catalog listed magazine racks, smoking and telephone stands, folding dining tables, and lamps with leaded stained glass shades. When World War I affected supply availability, Sellner began manufacturing wood toys for children.

By 1923, Sellner’s creativity evolved, and he invented both a water toboggan slide and a water wheel that became popular items at bathing beaches. The slide was thirty feet high, featured a 100-foot-long track, and occupied a space of 18 by 100 feet. With 12 toboggans priced at 50 cents a ride, the owner could earn $6.00 every hour.

During the War, the Tilt-a-Whirl factory retooled to produce bomb carts.  Larson International in Texas subsequently purchased the Sellner firm and they continue to produce Tilt-a-Whirls.

A century ago, Minnesota creativity gave us Burma-Shave and its roadside signs, and a midway classic, as long as your stomach is up to it.

LET THE REPOSITIONING FOLLIES CONTINUE!

I've long been on record doubting using college football to attract enrollment.

The thought process of some university administrators must run something like this:  Flagship universities are visible in football.  There are lots of people in the stadium six or seven Saturdays in the fall.  So let's get some football visibility and play in a big stadium.

It hasn't worked so well for the University of Massachusetts.

Or Rutgers.

There was some controversy about turning back time in Ann Arbor, but I'm not going to get into that.  Rather, it's the follies that get administrators in New Brunswick thinking about playing in the Big Ten and administrators in Amherst seeking a return to the Mid-American.  "UMass turned a second-quarter takeaway into the decisive scoring surge and defeated Rutgers 37-21 for a Fly the Flag victory to open the 2026 season on Sept. 3."  Plus Pop-Tarts.

Those two programs are perennial poster boys for making relegation a thing in college football.

Yes, years ago Julius Erving played for the Minutemen, and their men's hockey team recently won a national championship, perhaps begging forgiveness from the wokies for that Minutemen. That "storied athletic tradition" also included the Minutemen serving as crash test dummies for the Northern Illinois football team, at least until the football-only affiliation with the Mid-American ended.

Massachusetts scheduled a home-and-home with Northern Illinois in 2024 and 2025 and they learned a lot.  Now Northern Illinois play football in the Mountain West, and their latest attempt to be the next Boise State ran into reality at Iowa City.

Over the years, our meditations on attracting students by offering that game day (note, not game night) experience have raised the possibility that offering beer-'n-circus doesn't attract the studious sort of student.

OUR SILVER JUBILEE YEAR BEGINS.

Cold Spring Shops opened for business on the afternoon of Tuesday, 5 September, 2002, the day after Labor Day.  Our Silver Jubilee year will thus commence during the long weekend.

Britain's investor owned railways recognised the Silver Jubilee of King George V with a train named, er, titled, as they have it there, Silver Jubilee and a series of mixed traffic locomotives named for the countries and colonies of the Dominion and the Commonwealth and for prominent figures or events.  Canadian Pacific got in on the honours with two classes of 4-4-4 fast passenger locomotives.  A representative of the smaller series occasionally polishes the rails at Cold Spring Shops headquarters.

We'll see what the upcoming year brings.  There are a lot of things I carried on about early on that I can still carry on about, although I cannot characterize all the developments of the past quarter century as for the worse.

LAUGHTER IS THE BEST MEDICINE.

Good news as the academic year begins in earnest.

VICTORY! After a FIRE lawsuit, the University of Washington paid $600,000 after punishing Professor Stuart Reges for parodying a university-approved “land acknowledgment” in his syllabus. 🧵 https://t.co/unrBuf5yNU pic.twitter.com/0q63E9Nfx5

— FIRE (@TheFIREorg) September 3, 2026

The best thing to do with those ridiculous land acknowledgements that do nothing to offer, oh, returning that land to the previous claimants, is to mock them, and Professor Reger got himself in some trouble with the Guardians of Correct Thought for doing so.  He took them to court, and rightly so.  His course outline was nowhere near as over the top as it could have been.  “University administrators turned me into a pariah on campus because I included a land acknowledgment that wasn’t sufficiently progressive for them. Land acknowledgments are performative acts of conformity that should be resisted, even if it lands you in court. I am pleased that FIRE joined with me to fight back against University of Washington’s illegal viewpoint discrimination.”

It's not as if he noted the Tsar's claims to the Pacific Northwest, or invoked Holy Scripture.  "I wonder if any academic institutions in Bethlehem have a land acknowledgement that refers to the house and lineage of David."

Cold Spring Shops headquarters is on land that was in Wisconsin Territory before Illinois became a state. We recognize the labor applied by those settlers marking the trails that contemporary Illinoisans use to visit Lake Geneva, the Dells, and Door County, and to watch their teams get owned in Green Bay and Milwaukee.

IT'S CALLED PUBLIC CHOICE, SETH.

Labor Day weekend is upon us, and children socialist agitators of all ages, including Seth Sandronsky, are obligated to dial up the rhetoric.  "Placing the drive for profits before the needs of the human population is the normal operation of the capitalist system as ruling class interests use two-party politics to craft laws and policies that benefit elites, billionaires, and corporations."

That Complex Proposition is right out of Marxian political economy, where the "capitalist state" is the executive committee for the ruling class.  "Two-party politics," or as the Serious People on the Sunday shows call it, "bipartisan compromise" might have the interests of elected officials and their bureaucrats and court intellectuals in mind, not necessarily those of the hypothetical capitalists extracting ever more surplus value.

There's never been much good done by those who affect to trade for the public interest, and dressing it up with the rhetoric of Scientific Management doesn't change the reality.  "Public power is the power to generate rents, and yes, rent-seekers seek rents, politicians generate them, and the combined effect is often to dissipate rents."  Comrade Sandronsky could have made a case for limiting the ability of governments to generate and dissipate rents, and provide additional procedural checks on corrupt public officials and unelected bureaucrats, but, this being Labor Day weekend, the polemics come first.

The contradictions of economic nationalism and the world order are growing. An affordability crisis of working and poor people stateside as their tax dollars flow away from them and into the congressional-military-industrial complex is the tip of a proverbial iceberg. The worsening climate crisis that profits billionaires and corporations in the short-term as the political duopoly facilitates this ecocide is a wake-up call for movement politics.

Comrade Sandronsky is giving the same sort of speech about worsening conditions and contradictions of capitalism that have been popular for over 150 years.  We keep hearing the call for that movement (pronounced mewve-ment) politics for years, to no lasting effect.

LET THE POSTURING CONTINUE.

Trust a quartet of Washington Post reporters to put the most favorable spin on it.  "Under pressure, Iran lashes out and ramps up rhetoric."  I suspect they're running out of gas mains to dig up and pack with propellant.  But whatever.  "Amid economic pressure and a fight to retain diplomatic leverage via control over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is lashing out with increasingly bellicose rhetoric and, on Thursday, a strike on U.S. forces in Kuwait."

AROUND, NOT THROUGH, MAJOR CITIES.

A city produces and receives a lot of rail traffic.  It's also not the best place to sort freight cars or interchange them, which was the rationale for Canadian National acquiring Elgin Joliet & Eastern to connect all four coasts of North America without going through Chicago, and it was the hope behind the ill-conceived Great Lakes Basin railroad of a few years ago.

The same logic works in the steppes of Central Asia.  "Construction of a 127 km railway bypass to divert freight traffic including hazardous goods away from Ulaanbaatar is progressing."  The avoiding line transits the Khushig river valley between Emeelt and Bagakhangai.  I'm not sure how planned Mongolia's economy is some thirty years after their freedom from the Evil Empire: the railway will expedite the passage of trade goods between China and Siberia, and perhaps divert traffic off the roads.  "Once completed, the bypass is expected to remove up to 1 800 heavy lorries per day from Ulaanbaatar’s roads. It is initially designed to handle around 3.5 million tonnes of freight annually, with capacity potentially increasing to 20 million tonnes."  We're talking about a single track avoiding line with three passing sidings, not the double tracking of the Chicago Outer Belt that Canadian National have been undertaking.

And yet, it is refreshing to read about a railway project that is taking place and is not some hero project for fast passenger trains.

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE COURT INTELLECTUALS.

I've argued that much of the propensity for university faculty to register as Democrats is self-interest concealed in the rhetoric of Governance by Wise Experts.

Tonight, a parable.  Suppose that it's hard to be a Man of System because those refractory citizens recognize what it is the Men of System are doing and change their behavior to take advantage of, or to protect themselves from, the policies those Wise Experts drew up (as if in Vince Lombardi's playbook) and the policy doesn't deliver what its designers anticipated?

In political economy, particularly in macroeconomic policy, what I've hinted at has a short descriptor, "Lucas critique," for the Chicago income theorist who worked through all the possible audibles the refractory citizens might call.

DENY COHERENT BELIEFS, FREE-RIDE ON THE EFFORTS OF THOSE WHO HAVE SOME.

My case is familiar.

I've been fighting it out on this line since before there was a Cold Spring Shops.  "Yeah, when you deny coherent beliefs of any kind, you get incoherence."  That cannot turn out well.  "If you're going to deny coherent beliefs, everybody else has to be in on the con."  That post also noted, "Arguments from authority only work when people respect your authority."

But people in authority have been undermining their authority for a long time, while dressing up in the skin suits that Erudition and Expertise have become.  Thus does Arthur Brooks, writing in The (Not Detroit) Free Press, conclude, "Millions of Americans aren’t just misinformed. They’re searching for coherence in a world that no longer provides it."

It's still up to people who don't buy the postmodern wordnoise to uphold standards.  Kurt Schlichter argues, "All This 'Feelings' Nonsense Should Make You Feel Sick."  That's notionally about the legal distinction between being out of sorts or being nuts.  In the course of his argument, though, he fires a broadside against the notion of people living "their truth."

The legal issue really has to do with whether the jurors believe she had a mental defect that made her unable to tell right from wrong, but this isn’t a hard case. It’s an easy case. It’s only made hard because a significant percentage of our society has decided that reason is inconvenient, as it leads to results that they don’t prefer, so they’ve decided to jettison it completely in exchange for a paradigm in which feelings determine reality. The advantage of a feelzocentric paradigm is obvious. You always get the result you want because the only criterion for any issue is how you feel.

Left unchecked, this idea would be the death of civilization. But of course, the irony is that only civilization can allow the frivolity of a feelzocentric paradigm to persist. Its practitioners are made safe and secure by those of us bound to the harsh rigors of reason. Basically, we create a world where they can act like idiots and not get themselves killed by other people who are controlled by their emotions. You know, kind of like the entire Third World.

It's an absence of bourgeois norms, perhaps seasoned by tribal politics and the cult of Mohammed that makes the Third World what it is, not because Third World universities are on the cutting edge of high concept philosophy.  Well, OK, that's for arbitrary values of "third world" that include France.

Bad ideas, though, have a way of trickling down from the ivory tower into common discourse.

We used to look down on people who weren’t rational. But now we look on them as sensitive, as caring and compassionate. Our Oprahized society celebrates those who prioritize the feelz. How it’s caring and compassionate to let a woman who throttled a trio of babies escape punishment is beyond me. Like you, my mind can’t wrap around people who are entirely bereft of reason in favor of emotion.

We see it online, too, with irrational people babbling endlessly about stupid nonsense in defiance of objective fact.

"Nonsense in defiance of objective fact" might not be what hangs that Plymouth jury.  As long, though, as we live in a world where "reality has no regard for your feelings" is a right-wing talking point, and uttering it might get the campus bias response team on you, it's going to be on the people who insist that logic and content must carry the day to protect themselves, and the people not so inhibited. from the consequences of denying coherent beliefs.

CONFLICT CREEP.

Outside the Beltway's James Joyner, who knows a few things about international relations (countries boffing each other, mostly), suggests that what goes on across the Berezina might be worth paying attention to.

Whether this is “state sponsored terrorism” really depends on the nature of the attack. If it was simply aimed at a cargo plane transporting materiel to Ukrainian forces, it is a legitimate military target and any incidental loss of civilian life would be collateral damage. If, on the other hand, it was intended to destroy civilian infrastructure to send a political message, it’s terrorism.

Regardless, it represents an escalation in the proxy war with Russia. While we’ve supported—rightly, in my view—Ukraine against Russia’s illegal invasion, supplying intelligence support and ever-more-lethal weapons, we’ve been careful not to directly participate in hostilities against Russia. Until now, Russia has assiduously avoided kinetic attacks into NATO territory, although there have been violations of NATO airspace and some stray shots that have made it across the border into Poland.

A direct attack on a core NATO ally could certainly trigger enforcement action under Article 5. There will be little appetite for a direct war with Russia, but this may result in further lengthening of the leash put on Ukraine’s use of Western assets.

The dogs of war have been given longer leash for some time, possibly for nearly twenty years looking back to that color revolution in Ukraine that put the current government in power.  Arguably, the War was festering for many years prior to 1939, considering the Spanish civil war, Japan's imperial ambitions in China, and the colonies of the nineteenth century empires changing hands.  Buckle in.

HIGHER EDUCATION IS LIKELY DOOMED.

In American Greatness, Stephen Soukup uses the cautionary tale of Syracuse University, once a pretty good private university with solid sports programs, as a metaphor for higher education's more general breach of what once was a social contract with the public.

The distinction between hard-science discovery and social-science discovery is, as I said, endemic to the structure of the contemporary university, but the manifestation of that difference as social-science fatuousness/indoctrination wasn’t necessarily inevitable and, in any case, didn’t happen overnight. It was a slow, steady process of infiltration and degradation that featured many players, some of whom believed that their efforts were genuinely directed at educational improvement, and others who manipulated the structure of academia in pursuit of personal and ideological power. The members of the Frankfurt School, especially its most enduring American representative, Herbert Marcuse, fall into this latter category, while educational “reformers” like John Dewey comprise the former. Dwight Waldo, a public administration theorist and the godfather of the “New Public Administration” movement, also falls into the former category, although one can hardly imagine that his legacy could possibly have been more destructive than it is had he been a power-mad ideologue. Unlike the Cultural Marxists, Waldo didn’t see his mission as one in which he was preparing the ground for the eventual revolution. Rather, like Dewey, he believed he was helping to foster a better, more productive interpretation of his field of expertise but in so doing undermined any pretensions his adherents might have to objectivity or adherence to neutral evidence.

In 1948, Waldo wrote a book called The Administrative State, which challenged the standard interpretation of public administration, attacking the longstanding expectation that administrators should be “value neutral.” In essence, he argued that administrators should be advocates of policies that aligned with their personal beliefs. He more or less told them to let their freak flags fly.

There might be no such thing as "value neutral," in the same way that there might be few or no eternal truths.

I've been calling attention (at length) for years.

Dear reader, it's straightforward enough: think of "the humanities" as "those disciplines that deconstruct reality as a hobby" and you won't go far wrong.  That reality has a say in what gets deconstructed never ceases to catch the academy by surprise.

They could have listened.  People with platforms bigger than mine have been calling attention for thirty plus years.  The late Jason Arday is simply the most egregious recent example of virtue signalling at the expense of education.  Let that hard rain fall.

A LATTER-DAY RED BALL EXPRESS?

A report describing Syria's attempt at geographic arbitrage, giving local teamsters a slice of the Hormuz maritime risk premium, opens with a photograph.

Unattributed photograph retrieved from Yahoo News.

SECTARIANISM TODAY, SECTARIANISM TOMORROW, SECTARIANISM FOREVER.

Les Leopold asks, "Can DSA’s Brand of Socialism Attract the Broader Working Class?"

No, for reasons that are not too removed from my assessment of a few weeks ago.

When DSA candidates take to the field, they focus almost entirely on populist economic demands—housing and food affordability, fair taxes on billionaires, and Medicare for All. These are socialist in the sense that Social Security, libraries, fire departments, and our current Medicare are socialist, and yet they are also firmly embedded in our capitalist system.

I have yet to encounter a DSA candidate who discusses truly socialist reforms, like the elimination of large private enterprises and workers’ control of the corporations that employ them.

A strict understanding of things socialist suggests that anything "embedded in our capitalist system" involves acceptance of the wages system, and there is no requirement that libraries, fire departments, or pensions, let alone things like roads and water mains, must be government services (the old "mixed economy" compromise.  It is also no accident, dear reader, that Mr Leopold, good communist that he is, will be dismayed that Marxism-DeLeonism is a foreign concept to the priviligentsia who align with "democratic socialism."

GIVE THE KIDS SPACE TO PLAY.

The women's professional basketball season in the United States is taking a two week pause for the international World Cup competition in Berlin.  The team and player descriptions suggest there are, in fact, ways of ranking players' capabilities, and some of the ladies who grade out well might not be making the trip.

Perhaps, when the professional season resumes, the playoffs begin, and the speculation about contract renewals and the like goes on, we might be able to have a reasoned conversation about the cagermetrics.  There might even be a simple summary statistic out there, something along the lines of "wins above replacement."  Rather that than a resumption of the culture wars.

PUT YOUR FAITH IN EMERGENCE.

Religious dogma might be useful.  Consensus is poison.

So argues Matthew Continetti in "Inoculated Against Tyranny," asserting, "The Constitution’s separation of powers and guarantee of individual rights kept America’s revolution from devolving into fratricide."

THE FATAL CONCEIT, OR BEGGING THE QUESTION.

Charles "Strong Towns" Marohn notes, "Most planning processes begin with a hidden assumption: we already know the solution and simply need public buy-in."

There's probably a generalization to the behavior of the people who "facilitate" meetings by structuring the order of business in order to nudge, or coerce, participants to the outcome the facilitator wants.

Nobody talks like that.

My neighbors don't. The people I run into at church don't. The parents dropping their kids off at school don't. The survey wasn't asking residents to describe their lives. It was asking them to answer a planning question, one presented and framed in a way that will feel completely foreign to nearly all of them.

Years ago, Steve Jobs made an observation about focus groups that has become famous.

It's really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don't know what they want until you show it to them.

That statement is often misunderstood as an argument against listening to customers. It isn't. Apple listened obsessively to customers. What Jobs understood was that customers experience frustrations, desires, and obstacles. They do not necessarily experience solutions.

The story he tells is of focus groups who might think in terms of an improved Walkman rather than a portable computer with music-streaming capabilities.

Residents know where they struggle. They know which intersections feel dangerous. They know which streets their children are afraid to cross. They know whether housing feels attainable. They know whether a neighborhood feels welcoming.

What they often don't know — and shouldn't be expected to know — is whether the answer involves mixed-use zoning, form-based codes, parking reform, traffic calming, tax increment financing, or some other technical intervention.

Those are planning tools. Residents are experts in something much more important: their own experience.

A recent article from the American Planning Association discusses innovative public engagement techniques. The article correctly identifies a real problem. Traditional public meetings often don't work very well. Dot-voting exercises become predictable. SWOT analyses are tedious. Attendance is low. Participants are frequently unrepresentative.

Fundamentally, planning is about attempting to impose some Man of Systems' scheme on messy reality.  On the other hand, placing a bet on emergence based on some notion of the individual experiences of residents who are not regional planners might be reason for the planners to get away from the notion of System or Vision.  "What's the next smallest thing we can do to address it?"

LET THE THING BE PRESSED.

Over the weekend, United States Central Command claim to have destroyed drones or rockets carrying mines (or perhaps trash bags or beachballs) in order to effect some kind of closure of Hormuz, or at least the spooking of energy traders.  In retaliation, the mullahs flipped some flying gas mains toward United States bases in Jordan, apparently without effect.  We'll see what Our President orders up.

EXCESSIVE SPORTS HYPE?

In the course of a lament over gridiron parents taking the joy out of youth football, Pajamas Media's Tim O'Brien notes, "Little League baseball players should not have 'walk-up music' any more than youth league football players should have 'recruiting videos,' but they do."  I might still have some of my nephew's Greendale Youth Football trading cards (no, they did not come in Topp's bubble gum packs) but I digress.

Rather, dear reader, I want to consider a recent high school football game in which St. Joseph took an early thirty point lead over Mount Carmel, only for Mount Carmel to rally back and win the game.

It made for compelling television.  Television?  Television.  "Mount Carmel football stuns by overcoming 30-point deficit to win on national TV."  Specifically,  on ESPN.

There might not be another game as thrilling as Mount Carmel played on Friday night.

In a nationally televised game, New Jersey visiting St. Joseph Regional High School went up 30-0 on the Caravan just one play into the second quarter. It was the definition of a rout.

Until, the Caravan staged a comeback for the ages. They stunned the high school football world, as Jordan Lynch's Mount Carmel squad overcame that 30-point deficit to shock St. Joseph and win its first game of the season.

That's right, a nationally televised, if on sports cable, game, involving a New Jersey team visiting the Chicago area.

EXCESSIVE COMPLEXITY PRODUCES DIMINISHING RETURNS.

Anyone who has suffered through endless faculty meetings knows that.  The Credentialed Experts who worship process are beginning to figure it out.

All these ways of seeing our world converge dynamically in the current historical moment: this Fourth Turning, or Long Emergency — however you label it — in the arc of our techno-industrial order of things. A lot of these things are coming apart now, and in astounding ways, and it remains to be seen what we will do with these broken and discarded parts, and whether any of it can be put back together in a satisfactory way.

Saecular entropy, properly understood, cannot be reversed.  The saecular order to come will hold surprises.