FOURTH TURNING ALERT. Morton Kondracke, via Drudge:

A Bush campaign official said, "It's called the theory of political socialization. Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group. Why? Because the two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover. And who are the most Republican? People in their 40s, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan. If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a fairly good chance that we'll have your support."

Process, nuance, failure, good-bye!

Mr Kondracke is on somewhat less solid ground in his continuation:

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base in anchored in the religious right. In fact, Democratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis and Stan Greenberg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.

Not quite that simple. It was the hippies and other "cosmopolitans" that engaged in free love and aborted the unintended products of conception. The uncool people, who didn't get the publicity, deferred gratification and cherished the children that came along. Those children are more likely to have grown up comfortable with Republican (possibly of the South Park stripe) ideas. There's a research project waiting to be done here. (Hat tip: Shot in the Dark.)