ONE LAST ACT OF DEFIANCE?

As of yesterday, Our President was still hoping for the best.  "Trump says US and Tehran having 'good talks' as drones hit Iran's neighbours."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday that messages were still being passed between the sides through mediators and Iran had not forsaken diplomacy, but reports that it requested negotiations were "fabricated."

"This is not in our DNA," he said.

A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Iran would halt its own attacks as long as Trump's self-imposed ceasefire continued.

Iran's central military command later on Monday accused the U.S. of threatening vessels and ‌oil tankers in its territorial waters and of "attempting to implement an illegal maritime ⁠blockade", which it said "constitutes an escalation of the conflict in the region."

Saudi Arabia said it shot down drones aimed at petroleum targets, including in Riyadh. It said they had been launched from Iraq by Iran-backed armed groups, and it reserved the right to respond.

That halt lasted about as long as a special price on a three-meter carpet.

Iran has brought days of relative calm in the Middle East to an end after launching what the US called a "surprise" attack in a striking change to the pattern of fighting.

Rather than responding to a fresh American strike, Tehran chose to restart the fight itself, showing a growing willingness to use military force to shape the course of the war on its own terms.

This in turn sets the stage for fresh escalation. "We are going to beat the f**king sh*t out of them," US President Donald Trump told Fox News Wednesday morning. "We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating."

That threat could hardly have surprised Tehran, which launched its missiles knowing they might bring US bombers back.

Trump had attributed last week's pause to a request from Iran because "they asked us very nicely" and wanted talks. Tehran never publicly committed to the recent pause, although a senior Iranian official said "our armed forces also decided not to take military action."

That makes Iran's decision to resume fire all the more significant.

Hours after publicly signaling that it would match the US restraint, Tehran targeted American forces – apparently deciding that raising the pressure was worth the risk of restarting the nightly bombardment.

"Something appears to have changed fundamentally in Iran's approach, particularly regarding its willingness to initiate a strike if it considers that to be the only viable option," Hamid Reza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, wrote on X.

Our President's propensity to posture and threaten a rain of ruin only to order a halt when somebody from Pakistan or Qatar or Oman suggests there are elements in Iran willing to talk might have remnant hardliners feeling their oats.

That Persians interpret eagerness to dicker as willingness to pay more might strengthen their hand.

"The central challenge facing Washington and its Gulf partners is that neither Iran nor its regional allies appear willing to retreat from what they now define as core strategic objectives," Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and a former head of the Iran branch in Israeli military intelligence, wrote on X.

"Tehran continues to insist on maintaining its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis have made clear that they will not end their campaign unless the Saudi-led (blockade) imposed on them (is) lifted."

I submit, dear reader, it is time to punch the mullahs in the mouth again.  Predictably, the Iran cheering section at Common Dreams suggests such efforts are futile.  "Trump’s Iran Quagmire Spirals as US Teams Up With Saudis to Bomb Iraq."  The Saudis, please note, have mostly been quiet until recently.  Persian posturing, not so much.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Wednesday that the US-Saudi bombing of Iraq was aimed at expanding “the scope of the war and conflict in the West Asia region.”

“The warmongering US regime and its accomplices in the region [are] responsible for the dangerous consequences of these criminal, inhumane, and provocative acts,” the foreign ministry added.

Perhaps, though, the correlation of forces is not so favorable to the mullahs or their useful idiots among the international socialists.

Trump's weaving of air strikes, blockades, and sanctions has put the regime that has waged war on us for 47 years on that same path to ultimate extinction.

As the conflict enters its sixth month this week, the combination of pressures on the regime applied by American, Israeli, and Gulf Cooperation Council states in the Middle East is causing it to fracture internally while flailing externally. But with each instance of lashing out by the regime in the form of a drone strike on a ship in the Strait, or a barrage of missiles desperately seeking U.S.-based targets in the region, you can see the life beginning to leave the regime. It's just a matter of time.

Just 13 months ago, U.S. naval and air assets, with great coordination and cooperation from Israeli fighters, pulled off Operation Midnight Hammer. Iran responded by launching two waves of missiles back at the Jewish state. In total, between 35 and 40 rockets were launched along with another 30-plus drones. That was Iran's full capacity of waging war before President Trump set back their nuclear program.

Of course, Iran began to reconstitute their nuclear program as quickly as possible, yet was unable to rebuild their air defenses or block both Israel's and the U.S.'s abilities to see what they were up to. It led to kinetic action resuming once again in February. But the point is Iran's latest attack, yesterday's attempt to hit a U.S. base in Jordan, consisted of five rockets, all of which were intercepted. Iran has gone from a regional threat on the verge of becoming a global nuclear threat to a regional nuisance that can be managed and neutered.

That article might be arguing for strategic patience, noting as it does the shaky state of the civilian economy, particularly where energy is concerned, and the slow confiscation of funds that otherwise might have been going to pay the proxies to wreak havoc in Asia Minor.

The Battle of the Caspian Sea is having an effect as well.

An additional complication for Iran in the gasoline department has developed recently, in large part thanks to Ukraine methodically getting the upper hand in its war with Russia - mastering drone strikes on critical infrastructure like refineries. Russia, which has devolved into a mafia-run gas station with nukes, can no longer meet its own fuel demands, so it's become a new bidder on the world stage for gasoline. And even though their economy is also in shambles, Russia has much more buying power on the open market than Iran does just due to their size, and so Iran is getting squeezed out of position at the trough. And that's even if they could import gas by tanker, which they no longer can do thanks to the Navy's blockade.

Toward the end of that long essay, Duane Patterson notes,

They are the proverbial headless chicken still clucking around the yard with the body not fully recognizing the end is near. Without any further kinetic action, all the signals of regime collapse are in place and blinking red. But if air strikes shift to punitive action on infrastructure and/or the current Iranian leadership directly, something I have no doubt both the U.S. and Israel are well capable of delivering, the collapse could come much sooner.

It would not surprise me if, after last night's attempt to take out Americans in Jordan again, President Trump responds with disproportionate force. It honestly needs to happen, because if he shrugs it off without following through on his previous threat from last week, the regime will take notice and assume they can rinse and repeat that again on another American installation somewhere.

As of midday, Our President is not saying hopeful things about negotiation.

Let's see if the thing is pressed, starting this evening.