IF YOU'RE SO SMART, WHY AREN'T YOU RICH? The full economic significance of this question is elaborated here. Michael Giberson of Knowledge Problem applies the underlying principle in reacting to The Latest From The Best and The Brightest Bipartisans.

The letter purports to advise us of a "long-term energy crisis", i.e., they believe they can foresee the energy economy over the next many years and know something about the steps that should be taken to better prepare us for the future that they can foresee. My question is where were these foresighted individuals five years ago? Did they see $140 plus oil? Did they forecast $4/gallon gasoline? If not, should we believe them now? (If yes, then maybe I should shut up.)

Here's the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook for 2007.

The AEO2007 reference case remains optimistic about the long-term supply potential of non-OPEC producers. In the reference case, increased non-OPEC and OPEC supplies are expected to cause a price decline from 2006 levels to under $50 per barrel (2005 dollars) in 2014. After that, a gradual rise in oil prices, averaging 1.1 percent per year in constant dollar terms or about 3.0 percent in nominal terms, is expected through 2030. The AEO2007 reference case world oil price in 2030 is $59 per barrel in 2005 dollars, or about $95 per barrel in nominal terms.

With a disclaimer.

Any long-term projection of world oil prices is highly uncertain. Above-ground factors that contribute to price uncertainty include the extent of access to oil resources, investment constraints, the economic and other objectives of countries where major reserves and resources are located, the cost and availability of substitutes, and economic and policy developments that affect the demand for oil. Below-ground factors contributing to oil price uncertainty include the extent of reserves and resources and the physical and engineering challenges of producing oil.

Is anyone aware of these Great Experts lending money for oil exploration, or for wind farms?