A METHODOLOGICAL POINT ON LATE-NIGHT TELEVISION?

It's about finding testable implications.  Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert might have some fun with whether or not a virus that came to light in Wuhan, China, might have had some connection to a virology lab in Wuhan, China.  "Captain Ed" Morrissey provides the logic lesson.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s stipulate up front that the lab-leak possibility isn’t a conspiracy theory, in large part because it doesn’t qualify yet as a theory at all. In science, a theory has substantial support in evidence. The lab-leak idea is a hypothesis, as is every other potential origin explanation for COVID-19, as there isn’t any substantial evidence for any of the hypotheses thus far. That’s not because of the scientists, but because of China’s totalitarian government and their complete refusal to cooperate in any independent investigation (scientific or otherwise). That in itself is circumstantial evidence that the zoonotic transfer hypothesis may not be the best explanation, but that’s all it is.

Stewart makes the same mistake here that the media made in shutting down discussion of the lab-leak hypothesis — jumping to a conclusion. We don’t know that scientists created this in a lab yet; we don’t have any direct evidence of that or zoonotic transfer. We should have been open to that possibility all along, however, and our media elites shouldn’t have tried to squelch that discussion and debate.

I'm more strict than many on the use of terms: a theory takes the form of a rigorous argument based on premises and rules of construction, which is why I get so cranky about humanities types "theorizing" everything willy-nilly, and the theory generates testable implications. What we have here is something different, a new infectious disease that got from an animal host to a person and thence out into the world.  There's more than one possible chain of custody: unfortunate human mingles with other humans before anyone catches on, or is it unfortunate human provides research material to a lab that augments it, and then it gets out.  I think everyone is in agreement on the source and nature of the contagion, but it's more like a criminal investigation identifying the steps from bat cave to the rest of the world.