18.5.26

CEASE AND DESIST THIS POINTLESS PALAVER?

There are multiple layers of conflict in Asia Minor.  The United States seek freedom of seas, including transit of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to Iranian nuclear weapons work as long as the crazies are in charge of former Persia.  Israel's government have their own, more salient fears, of an Iranian hot rock, while they and the Lebanese seek some sort of recognition that Lebanon's government have the monopoly on violence in Lebanon, whether or not the Hezbollah militia like that.  Recently, news has come out that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been trading shots with Iran, both in the closing days of Epic Fury and after the so-far frustrating negotiations between Iran and the United States began.

None of the Israeli or United States war aims have yet been realized, and Israeli internal politics are as fraught as those within the United States.  At the same time that Pakistan have been acting as intermediary between the States and whoever is taking calls in Iran, they have also been respecting a mutual defense agreement with ... Saudi Arabia.
Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has previously implied that it places Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella.

According to ‌the sources, Pakistan has deployed a full squadron of ⁠around 16 aircraft, mostly JF-17 fighters made jointly with China, which were sent to Saudi Arabia in early April. Two of the security officials said Pakistan had also sent two squadrons of drones.
Earlier today, Our President announced a cancellation, or perhaps a postponement, of an air campaign that is in preparation.  "Trump said he was calling off the planned strike at the request of allies in the Middle East, including the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."  That article raises the possibility the pause is a fake, as bombers have been in the air as previous negotiations (such as they are) were still in progress.

Red State military analyst Ward Clark suggests the Gulf Arab diplomats, who have to live in that neighborhood, might have made a neighborly suggestion to whoever is taking calls for Iran.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, are some of the same states Iran was tossing missiles and drones at during the active hostilities. Could they be looking to avoid a repeat of that? It's not in the interest of any of these states to leave the current power structure in Iran in place, or so we might think; having spent a little time in that area, though, the one thing we know is that people in that part of the world just don't think the same way we do.

President Trump has said repeatedly that any deal will have to include no nuclear development in Iran for at least 20 years. Only recently, he called on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regime officials to surrender. Could that be part of the bargain being struck here? Could these Gulf states, who are not exactly the best of friends with Iran, have called Tehran, talked to whoever the top dirtbag is there at the moment, and told them, "Look, enough is enough. You lost," and persuaded Iran to accept the American terms?
That's one possibility, and perhaps between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan an offer acceptable to Our President, and to the Israelis, will be forthcoming.  Or perhaps we're at the stage of the mob boss concluding that it is not possible to negotiate with whoever is in charge, after having exhausted all the assistance from neighboring countries, or Chinese diplomats, or the Great Pumpkin, and letting loose the military.  As Mr. Clark notes, we'll know soon enough.

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