STRAITS STATUS QUO?

A service called Barchart for Business keeps track of financial information, such as options expiring 27 September on crude oil.  As I type, the spot price is in the neighborhood of US $ 82.20 per barrel and the chart tracks puts and calls with strike prices ranging from $77.50 to $86.00.  There might be other contracts and other opportunities to lose money on them.  Currently the $77.50 to $82.00 calls are in the money, and they've all declined in price today. The out of the money calls are also declining in price, with the calls at the highest price trading at around $2.  That doesn't look like a lot of speculative interest in spot price at the end of September headed to $100 or higher the way the doomsday observers carry on about.

The out of the money puts are increasing slightly in price today.  There's no point holding the right to sell oil at $77.50 a barrel when you can sell it for $82.25.  But if the spot price drops below $77.50 (good news for motorists and farmers) that right is valuable at expiry.  There are conditions under which exercise before expiry is profitable but I forget the technical details.  The in the money puts are also increasing in price.  Again, I forget the technical details, apparently holding the right to sell at $87 looks more attractive today than it did yesterday.

There is more put open interest (unexercised options) than there is call open interest.  Make use of that information as you will.  Tomorrow is another day and it will bring its own events.