GRASPING AT PINS.

In July, we noted the National Hurricane Center anticipating a relatively quiet North Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center's Atlantic hurricane forecast is out and it relies on that stronger El Niño.  "NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season."  There was already at least one named Atlantic tropical storm this season.  That heat wave east of the Mississippi during Freedom Weekend?  We used to call that the lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer.

That doesn't deter breathless journalists from breathlessly anticipating stirrings in the doldrums.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is tracking significantly behind historical norms and may set a new record for its delayed activity. As of this week, the first hurricane of the season has yet to form, far behind the average first occurrence date of August 11.

The current record for the latest first hurricane formation in the Atlantic is September 11, set by Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and tied by Hurricane Humberto in 2013.

"Historical norms" refers to a moving average over the past eight decades, give or take, and it is the same category error your weather reader says when he predicts tomorrow will be way hotter or way colder "than it should be" or when a month's rainfall comes in above or below that moving average.  Complex adaptive systems do what they do.  As of Saturday, "Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Record for Latest First Hurricane Formation," in the vacuously true sense that there were none yet.

Today, there's still little reason for Mike Seidel or Jim Cantore or Stephanie Abrams to pack their foulies.  "The system likely won't develop over the next 48 hours. It has a 30% chance of forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next week, the hurricane center said."  The Pacific is more active, although unless you're planning amphibious operations in the Solomons, there's little by way of landfalls to worry about.

That hurricane projections have become politicized gives "Ranty Amy" Curtis something to rant about.  "Not too long ago, climate scientists — who have yet to be right about anything — said their policies had made the weather milder. This is the game they play: weather is bad, it's climate change. Weather is good, our policies fixed it. It's as cynical as it is transparent."

There's more publicity in being a climate policy pundit, but more respect in attempting to work out what complex adaptive systems do.