LET'S TEST A FEW HYPOTHESES.

It's spring break, and as surely as the swallows flock to Capistrano, the buzzards to Hinckley, and the students to the beach, the corona fear-mongers will flock to their chicken coops.

Just as public health officials and city leaders feared, South Beach has become inundated with bare-faced, care-free spring breakers over the last month. The virus is still spreading, but young party-goers from all parts of the U.S. are mingling without observing social distancing, and mostly without masks.

That threatens to prolong the pandemic at a time when daily cases are gradually decreasing statewide and bigger sections of the population are getting vaccinated, said University of Florida infectious disease professor Dr. J. Glenn Morris, Jr.

Let's revisit this story in about three weeks, shall we?

Florida’s warm weather and relatively lax COVID rules have made Miami Beach an inviting destination for young people who have felt bottled up during the year-long pandemic. With March expected to bring the largest crowds South Beach has seen in more than a year, sidewalk cafes, bars and hookah lounges now fill up on the weekends — increasing the likelihood that tourists will spread COVID-19 in Miami-Dade or catch it on vacation and carry it back home.

While we're at it, let's see how Expert the Leading Infectious Disease Expert is.

Dr. Anthony Fauci on Thursday said there’s a “big possibility” this week’s Bike Week motorcycle rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, could become a coronavirus superspreader event.

The 10-day rally, expected to attract 300,000 people, is “really ill-advised” and could lead to a major COVID-19 outbreak, like the Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August, the nation’s top infectious disease expert said in an interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow.

Footage of motorcycle enthusiasts attending the Florida rally “gave me chills just looking at it,” Fauci added.

“I mean, I understand people want to get out and enjoy themselves and get back to what would have been normal a couple of years ago but we really just got to hang on a bit longer,” said Fauci, who is President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser.

No, we're not going to let that Silent Generation relic move any more goal posts.  I'm holding the "under" on "mostly open by Easter," remember?  That's three weeks from now, or, sufficient time for any blips in infections from motorcycle rally-goers or spring-breakers to materialize in the several States.  The palace-guard media will do whatever they can to call attention to any spike in infections, whether it's valid or not.  If you hear crickets, draw your own conclusion.

That Sturgis rally?

When snarky bobbleheads with tin “reporter” badges uncritically regurgitated garbage “science” tying every single case in the upper midwest to the Sturgis rally? That made the headlines. The clarification – it was more like 80 cases in Minnesota – got Section C page 16.

Be prudent, and respect the wishes of businesses that would prefer customers taking precautions. But keep in mind that the prolonged shutdowns, and the coot's executive orders, are more about increasing the number of welfare dependents than about shortening the pandemic.