PREDICTION IS DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE.

At Labor Day weekend, we flagged the early weather forecast for winter.  "By Christmas, we should have early returns on whether a polar vortex is forming."

October is premature.  At mid-month, there was a cold snap that included measurable snow and the coldest recorded high temperature for that day ever in Rockford, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (OK, that's technically accurate, but isn't "weather bureau" descriptive enough?) was doing what bureaucrats do best, namely, straddling the fence.

In other words: Not unusually warm, and not unusually cold.

According to the prediction, from Dec. 2022 through Feb. 2023, temperatures in the Chicago area and for much of Illinois are neither expected to be warmer-than-average, nor colder-than-average.

The western part of the state though may see some frostier days.

It's a La Niña year, which calls for more hedging. "The winter outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations, as those forecasts are 'generally not predictable more than a week in advance.'"

And yet, the doomsday environmentalists will tell us we are in trouble ten years, or fifty years, or a hundred years out.

That NBC article at least got one thing right.  "The good news is, it's not quite time to put away your flip flops just yet. This coming weekend in the Chicago area is expected to be in the 70s, according to NBC 5 Storm Team."

That's been more the case than not the case for the past two weeks, providing favorable conditions for late fall yard maintenance, including some projects that had been deferred for a little too long, and took a little more time than usual.  The favorable weather favored trick or treating on Monday, and the little kids were out and about, although it appears as though people favored waiting until sunset, which meant a busy final hour passing out treats.