THE COURT INTELLECTUALS WEIGH IN.

Sixteen economists who have earned a Nobel, including two with knighthoods, recently signed a public letter endorsing the continuation of the Biden presidency's policies.

While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden’s economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump’s. In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, and climate. Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition. During Joe Biden’s presidency we have also seen a remarkably strong and equitable labor market recovery—enabled by his pandemic stimulus. An additional four years of Joe Biden’s presidency would allow him to continue supporting an inclusive U.S. economic recovery.

Make of it what you will that Paul Krugman is not among the signatories.  It's premature to assign any causation to any current changes in macroeconomic policy, and the consequences of the real debt ceiling might have effects on "productivity and economic growth" that will come as a surprise, particularly where those inflationary pressures are concerned; and driver reluctance to buy those enclosed golf carts is real.

David Henderson raises specific questions.

The “investments” they write about, which would more correctly be called “spending,” include the Inflation Reduction Act, which has nothing to do with inflation and everything to do with spending. Do they really believe that this huge increase in spending will reduce “long-term inflationary pressures?” What’s their basis for this? Do they think that the federal government spends money wisely? And if they do, why do they think that?

The letter might be offering a lesser evil argument, that is the Jarrett regency's more conventional fiscal policies will be "vastly superior" to whatever comes out of another Trump presidency.  That still leaves a few things out.

They’re right to worry about Trump’s fiscally irresponsible budgets. But they say nothing about Biden’s fiscally irresponsible budgets. Have these 16 economists even been paying attention?

Also, they praise the rule of law and they have some basis for worrying about how faithful Donald Trump will be to the rule of law. But we have an actual example of a President currently in power who, after being stymied by the Supreme Court’s decision against his illegal attempt to cancel student loan debt, actually bragged that he would go ahead and do it anyway. They don’t think this is a serious attack on the rule of law? [Note: it is possible that Biden thought he had found another way around the Court decision that complied with the law. However, this week, 2 federal courts have disagreed.]

City Journal contributor James Piereson also has doubts.

The economists also claimed that Biden’s agenda includes “a broader conception of infrastructure” that went beyond spending on roads, bridges, and the like to include investments in human capital, research, public education, and health care. This is a familiar Democratic Party talking point: expenditures on various social causes are really “investments.”

How did it all work out? The expert economists were badly mistaken on inflation. They said that Biden’s spending packages would “ease inflationary pressures,” but everyone understands today that those same policies stoked inflation. When they signed their 2021 letter, the consumer price index stood at 273; since then, it has surged by at least 15 percent, to its recent level of 313. This is called “being wrong.”

Interest rates have also surged since then, much to the detriment of prospective homebuyers and those planning large expenditures for autos, home appliances, and school and college tuitions.

Assigning causation will be the work of the next generation of scholars.  That U.S. inflation is lower than that in other countries is still something the advocates of free state coronavirus, tax, and transportation policies will continue to sound off about.  And nobody is saying anything about the trade war that either major party hopeful is likely to escalate.