NEVER MIND THE EVIDENCE, WE'RE ABOVE AVERAGE. On reflection, perhaps the skepticism King notes about statistical inference is simply the quadrennial eruption of hubris. It's unseemly for a discussant, or a questioner from the floor to say "shut up." Better to bring up something like "omitted variables" or "specification bias" (there are other tricks of the trade, kiddies, if you know where to look.)

None of which prevents the usual scribblers from raising the usual silliness. Via Betsy's Page, another whine from Michael Kinsley. (If I had small children and wanted to illustrate the concept of "sanctimonious dweeb," I would just play an old Crossfire tape. I forget who suggested he would make a great Dickens character, Barnaby Sneerly, but that's on point too.) Get this:

Bush's obvious lack of interest in policy issues makes him more dogmatic, not less so. Intellectual laziness stiffens the backbone as much as ideological fervor does. Hand him his position on an issue, and he can cross it off his list. Bush's intellectual defenders compare him to Ronald Reagan, who was simpleminded (they say) in the best sense. Reagan whittled down the world's complexities into a few simple truths. But Reagan pondered those complexities on his way to simplicity. He stopped thinking only after a fair amount of thought. Bush's advisers deliver ideas to him like a pizza. His stove has never been lit. And four years have not illuminated the meaning of compassionate conservatism. It remains an insult to conservatives and a mystery to everybody else. On every big social issue that has arisen during his term (gay marriage, for example, and stem-cell research), Bush has been steadfast in taking the hard-conservative line.

The Wasp graciousness, the good-ole-boy affability, even the obviously sincere religious conviction run about a quarter-inch deep.

Contrast that with Steven at Vodka Pundit.

Forget the war. Forget policy. Forget everything but two men who want something from me. Kerry could never have joked about the way he walks – or made any other joke at his own expense. Bush can, and did. That's a guy comfortable in his own skin, and that's a guy I'd give something to, before the other guy. I'm pretty sure a lot of people recognize that, even if only instinctively. In other words, my gut tells me to vote for Bush.

My brain does, too.

I’m not much for faith-based initiatives, but I know for certain that unless we reform Social Security, this nation is in deep trouble. Tonight, Bush touched the “third rail” of American politics. Kerry seems content to keep on, keepin’ on. Strange position for a challenger to take against an incumbent, no?

I’m not much for Federal mandates on local schools, but I know for certain that America’s public schools need fixing, and soon. Bush is willing to take on the establishment. Kerry isn’t. Strange position for a challenger to take against an incumbent, no?

I’m not much for the expansion of Medicare. In fact, I think it was one of Bush’s biggest mistakes. On the other hand, I’m certain we would have gotten an even bigger, more ambitious, and even stupider and more expensive plan under a President Gore or Kerry. And yet Bush is still willing to propose expanding private Medical Savings Accounts. Kerry isn’t.

Or contrast that with Andrew Sullivan.

People like me who became conservatives because of the appeal of smaller government and more domestic freedom are now marginalized in a big-government party, bent on using the power of the state to direct people's lives, give them meaning and protect them from all dangers. Just remember all that Bush promised last night: an astonishingly expensive bid to spend much more money to help people in ways that conservatives once abjured. He pledged to provide record levels of education funding, colleges and healthcare centers in poor towns, more Pell grants, seven million more affordable homes, expensive new HSAs, and a phenomenally expensive bid to reform the social security system. I look forward to someone adding it all up, but it's easily in the trillions. And Bush's astonishing achievement is to make the case for all this new spending, at a time of chronic debt (created in large part by his profligate party), while pegging his opponent as the "tax-and-spend" candidate. The chutzpah is amazing. At this point, however, it isn't just chutzpah. It's deception. To propose all this knowing full well that we cannot even begin to afford it is irresponsible in the deepest degree. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the only difference between Republicans and Democrats now is that the Bush Republicans believe in Big Insolvent Government and the Kerry Democrats believe in Big Solvent Government. By any measure, that makes Kerry - especially as he has endorsed the critical pay-as-you-go rule on domestic spending - easily the choice for fiscal conservatives. It was also jaw-dropping to hear this president speak about tax reform. Bush? He has done more to lard up the tax code with special breaks and new loopholes than any recent president. On this issue - on which I couldn't agree more - I have to say I don't believe him. Tax reform goes against the grain of everything this president has done so far. Why would he change now?

It is possible to disagree, without portraying the President, or his supporters, as lightweights.

None of which stops Garrison Keillor, who, I suppose, has to continue to abase himself to his metrosexual friends for the sin of being born in Lake Wobegon.

The party of Lincoln and Liberty was transmogrified into the party of hairy-backed swamp developers and corporate shills, faith-based economists, fundamentalist bullies with Bibles, Christians of convenience, freelance racists, misanthropic frat boys, shrieking midgets of AM radio, tax cheats, nihilists in golf pants, brownshirts in pinstripes, sweatshop tycoons, hacks, fakirs, aggressive dorks, Lamborghini libertarians, people who believe Neil Armstrong’s moonwalk was filmed in Roswell, New Mexico, little honkers out to diminish the rest of us, Newt’s evil spawn and their Etch-A-Sketch president, a dull and rigid man suspicious of the free flow of information and of secular institutions, whose philosophy is a jumble of badly sutured body parts trying to walk. Republicans: The No.1 reason the rest of the world thinks we’re deaf, dumb and dangerous.

Mr Keillor, your own post says more about the company you keep than your projection of that fear onto others.

This year, as in the past, Republicans will portray us Democrats as embittered academics, desiccated Unitarians, whacked-out hippies and communards, people who talk to telephone poles, the party of the Deadheads.

It's worse than that. Too many Democratic sympathizers do not take the time to understand the thinking -- however jumbled, however incomplete, however different -- that underpins the belief systems of people they'd rather dismiss as yahoos.