11.4.20

WHAT A LOSS FUNCTION ARGUMENT LOOKS LIKE.

Paul Romer, who economists might know better as one of the gurus of growth theory, has suggestions for keeping track of coronavirus patients that involve sensible testing and relatively little contact tracing.

The testing is more important for workers in health services and related fields. "When someone tells you that 'we could never test that many people,' ask 'ok, so your plan is to stand by and do nothing as asymptomatic spreaders kill their colleagues?'"  That might be harsh, but it's compelling people who object to consider the trade-offs they'd rather make.

The contact tracing sounds appealing to people of a technocratic bent, but there's a problem with large data bases.  "Check in on the folks who will still be arguing about how to implement some kinda sorta obligatory tracking system.  Ask them how they are doing with getting the members of QAnon comfortable with their scheme."

On the other hand, the remedy he suggests for people who test positive, once testing of the entire country becomes feasible, includes a suggestion that every household repurpose its bug-out-bag as a stay-in-bag.  "When you strip away all the noise and nonsense, note that once we cover essential workers, its easy test everyone in the US once every two weeks. Just do it. Isolate anyone who tests positlve."

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