THE POWER TO TAX IS THE POWER TO DESTROY.

Milwaukeeans, don't tell me you weren't warned.

The new Milwaukee mayor, Cavalier "Chevy" Johnson, aspires to a city (not metropolitan area, city proper) population of a million inhabitants.  I'm not sure pursuing population in the pursuit of taxes is the best strategy.  "It is not just that Johnson wants Milwaukee to grow. He needs population and business growth to help relieve enormous pressure on the city’s long-term finances."

Both the city council and the county board recently authorized sales tax increases, to take effect at the start of 2024.  Tax revenue projections never survive their first encounter with taxpayers, and the short run substitutions such as shopping in stores outside Milwaukee County, and the long run migrations of businesses dealing with additional crime while collecting taxes on dwindling sales are likely, if of unknown magnitude.

Now batting, Reality.

With a looming $19 million end-of-year deficit, a disappointing sales tax shortfall and growing concerns about future budgets, members of the Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors warned of difficult spending cuts ahead and said the county might need to seek financial help from the state.

On Wednesday, supervisors discussed the county's potential multimillion deficit, which has been exacerbated by low sales tax collections as well as the Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Office projected overall deficit of $7.06M and projected overtime deficit of $7.6 million.

For Supervisor Steve Taylor, the county's current fiscal situation doesn't bode well for the upcoming budget season this fall or for the next few years.

"If you were elected before 2020, you have no clue how difficult this budget is going to be. No idea," Taylor warned supervisors. "We've had four years of cash being thrown at us by the feds. Those days are over. This budget is going to be brutal. We've seen the five-year forecast. It's going to be brutal the next five years."

The sugar high from Dementia Joe's money printing is wearing off, and that will affect the legislature's ability to be helpful.

Taylor bemoaned the lack of action by the county to get help from the state already.

"Where's the going to Madison during the budget and demanding that the state picks up the slack and helps the local level? Why hasn't that been done?" Taylor said. "You know next year we're going to be sitting in the exact same position — that we're going to have to bail out the sheriff's department budget at the expense of other services, other departments that are doing their job."

The county has already gotten help from the state, including the ability to raise the sales tax from 0.4% to 0.9% and an increased flow of shared revenue. Legislators passed a funding deal for the Brewers stadium renovation that requires $67.5 million each from the city and Milwaukee County over almost 30 years, but the state offset some of those costs by lowering its fee to administer local sales taxes.

Taylor also voiced frustrations about the lower-than-projected sales tax collections and the county being on the hook for the annual $2.5 million contribution toward the Brewers stadium renovation but he trained particular anger on the sheriff's lack of solutions to its fiscal issues.

The beginning of wisdom is in recognizing that solutions don't exist, only trade-offs, and the reckoning will be painful.