13.2.03
HERITAGE TROLLEYS. Virginia Postrel reminds readers that her prize-winning article criticized the Dallas heritage trolley, which appears to operate independently of the new Dallas trolleys, otherwise known as light rail vehicles. There's another dimension for readers to consider: to the extent that transit authorities operate heritage trolleys, does that complement or crowd out volunteer efforts at railway preservation?
FOURTH TURNING ALERT. Charles Krauthammer: "Those are the stakes today. Before our eyes, in a flash, politics has gone cosmic. The question before us is very large and very simple: Can--and will--the civilized part of humanity disarm the barbarians who would use the ultimate knowledge for the ultimate destruction? Within months, we will have a good idea whether the answer is yes or no." See also this.
THE UNIVERSITY THAT REJECTED PRESIDENT BUSH. Critical Mass (who has moved house) is all over the usual: "In the name of tolerance and inclusion, it preaches ritual expulsion. In the name of fairness, it seeks to subject each member of the UT community to an intrusive ideological litmus test. Those who fail it must go: all in the name of civility and decency, of course." Nothing new there either. Many years ago, something similar happened at Northern Illinois University. The Vice President for Student Affairs reacted in this order: denounce first, then find out what happened.
UNWITTING ACCOMPLICE. Yes, there is a vast right wing conspiracy, reports Newmark's Door. And I have evidently been a long-time participant. Like Paul Weyrich, I have been a fan of the North Shore Line, although I did not get involved in efforts to save it (perhaps a bit much even for a precocious seven-year old.) And I did earn some college money at Allen-Bradley (the reason Rockwell moved headquarters to Milwaukee) as did my father and all my siblings. But, like Clayton Cramer, I have never received any grants from the Bradley Foundation, established with proceeds from Rockwell's acquisition of Allen-Bradley. Notwithstanding that, I will note that Rockwell products qualify for Get It From Wisconsin.
12.2.03
SUSPENDED WITHOUT TRIAL. Possible drumhead court-martial of Texas A&M's Ross Volunteer Company. Developing ....
UPDATE: The Ross Volunteers have been cleared, as Cut on the Bias and Misha, more colorfully, report. But notice the press coverage. The Corps commander wants to avoid "even the appearance of confrontation or effort to intimidate." Hmm, does A&M apply that standard to, say, a pack of fraternity kids with matching Starter jackets and reversed ball-caps?
UPDATE: The Ross Volunteers have been cleared, as Cut on the Bias and Misha, more colorfully, report. But notice the press coverage. The Corps commander wants to avoid "even the appearance of confrontation or effort to intimidate." Hmm, does A&M apply that standard to, say, a pack of fraternity kids with matching Starter jackets and reversed ball-caps?
POETRY FOR THE WAR. Today's Best of the Web. No doubt the literati will sniff, because the limericks scan, the stanzas tend to be symmetric, the punctuation is correct, and there is rhyming, including but not limited to couplets. No candidates for tenure here.
GET IT FROM WISCONSIN. Just heard a news item. An importer of cheeses has been getting nasty e-mails from the American street. Just tried to go to the site. It wasn't available. May I recommend an alternative? Or start here. (Disclaimer: some of my dairy farmer relatives stand to benefit. Prize bulls have been a Hopkins tradition since 1644.)
ANOTHER SOURCE OF COMPANY MAIL? Me, Version 2.0 is the reflections of a teacher in training. Report cards for parents? Scroll down (permalinks don't appear to have been cut in yet.) Discovered by Highered Intelligence.
SIGNALLING. Highered Intelligence reports, "if a student must choose between failing in Minnesota or succeeding in North Dakota, that choice is easy." I am not making this up. (That also suggests real estate will get cheaper in North Dakota.)
ANOTHER SOURCE OF COMPANY MAIL? Number Two Pencil, not to be confused with No. 2 Pencil, who reported the new site. Go check them both out.
SPONTANEOUS ORDER. Susan Lee posts some thoughts on libertarianism. "To push my argument further, libertarian thought, with its fluid cultural matrix, offers a better response to some of the knottiest problems of society. It is, especially when contrasted with the conservative cultural matrix, a postmodern attitude. In fact, it is precisely this postmodernism that enrages conservatives who are uncomfortable with a radical acceptance that, in turn, promotes change and unfamiliarity. Yet no matter how scary (or irritating), libertarian tolerance provides a more efficient mechanism in dealing with those places where economics, politics and culture clash so intimately." Up to a point. As John McGee noted, "Open markets are institutions in which powerful and appraising evolutionary forces are at work." That implies separating the productive from the unproductive ideas. That also implies a certain conservatism, in that long-established practices well might be efficient practices. Transgressiveness for its own sake is likely to be inefficient.
BARNABY SNEERLY. It's not mean-spiritedness, it's being witty. Right. (via The Corner.) My sense is that Eric Alterman hasn't been listening to Limbaugh recently. James Lileks, natch, has the reality: "I don’t listen to Limbaugh - a bomb could go off in New York on Sunday morning and come Monday, he’d talk about the last golf tournament he was in."
ARE YOU SURE? "Actually, I have a feeling the demand for picture books about adult homosexual love is even smaller than the demand for picture books about adult heterosexual love. Kids who identify with Thomas the Tank Engine aren't interested in Matt and Sailor," notes Joanne Jacobs. You mean Duck didn't have the hots for City of Truro? And Henry didn't have tender envy?
NOTICE OF DISRUPTION OF SERVICE. Describe a ten-story building with two elevators, neither of which is currently working. Do you see Zulauf Hall at Northern Illinois University? One elevator has been out of commission for going on three weeks. A new motor has been delivered (looks like it had to be built from scratch) but not yet installed. Meanwhile, the other elevator, which has the perverse habit of going from the ground floor down cellar even when nobody has requested that trip, conked out (from three weeks' overloading?) Some notices around the building helpfully provide a number for motorchair passengers and cardiac patients to call for assistance. Despite an eight degree rise in external temperatures in the last two hours, I suppose we should be grateful that there is not a breeches buoy reeved to the outside walls.
Real good day for the elevators to fail, too. Economics is interviewing a job candidate, and today is a school holiday for some districts, with swarms of potential freshmen checking the place out. Come for the academics, stay for the basketball. Perhaps one day we will have elevators worthy of our students and faculty.
Real good day for the elevators to fail, too. Economics is interviewing a job candidate, and today is a school holiday for some districts, with swarms of potential freshmen checking the place out. Come for the academics, stay for the basketball. Perhaps one day we will have elevators worthy of our students and faculty.
INSTITUTIONS EVOLVE TO REDUCE TRANSACTION COSTS. Good Jane Galt post on developing economies this morning. Sample: "The reason I'm interested is that there's no evidence that natural resources are the key to national success; if anything, the evidence runs the other way. Most of the Asian success stories, for example, have little in the way of natural resources, and not much open space either. Nor does Europe compare with, say, Africa for mineral wealth. With a few exceptions, such as warm-water ports, the countries whose economies are dependant on their geographical or geological features are the basket cases of the world." The institutions matter. And developing the institutions doesn't happen overnight. For instance, the reality that the United States went into business with a relatively limited franchise could well be a feature, not a flaw. More recommended reading here.
PUBLIC CHOICE. Betsy's Page thinks George Will has made a bit of a stretch: "The budget evokes 1862. In that annus mirabilis, with the national government's writ severely restricted and the entire American project in doubt, Lincoln and Congress nevertheless enacted the Homestead Act, which sped the settlement of the Great Plains; the Morrill Act, which begot the land grant college system; and the law that ignited construction of the transcontinental railroad.
Today, with the nation in a war against terrorism and on the brink of a related war against Iraq, the president's budget calls for a dash for economic growth through another round of tax cuts, a tax-cutting pace President Reagan did not attempt; a prescription drug entitlement linked to reform of Medicare; and reform of the way Americans save. And in a budget-related document, the administration floats the idea of scrapping individual and corporate income taxes in favor of a consumption tax
."
Perhaps it's not that much of a stretch. The Homestead Act may have been an act of do-it-yourself creation of property rights where there were none. It also had the effect of fostering freeholding farmers in counterpoint to the plantations of the rebellious slaveholding states. The land grant colleges are pure pork barrel: in particular they made possible many of the Big Ten universities in a part of the country at the time distant and disconnected from Washington (nothing new here; also nothing new in that units from those states essentially won the war for the Union by securing the west while national command went through one political general after another on the Virginia front.) The location of the Pacific Railroad is also a matter of public choice. The easiest way west would have been from New Orleans to San Diego (although there would have been another spat with Mexico to secure the Carrizo Gorge.) With the south in rebellion, that route was not an option, but keeping California in the Union (see above) mattered a lot, and a route using only free states was available, commencing at Omaha. That choice also set the standard for the railway gauge in North America. Had a southern route been available, the standard may well have become the Southern (and Russian) five foot rather than the Northern 4 feet 8.5 inches (bear that in mind the next time the email about Roman military specifications and the Space Shuttle hits your mailbox.) During the Rebellion, Union engineers relaid Southern track to Northern gauge so as to enjoy superior logistics. After the war many Southern railroads went back to their old gauge and stayed there until the 1880s.
But I digress. This was a post about public choice, after all. I have to wonder whether genuine Social Security accounts, and medical savings accounts, and unbundling health insurance from employment, all haven't been postponed or cancelled (delay being the deadliest form of denial) haven't all become casualties of the war effort.
Today, with the nation in a war against terrorism and on the brink of a related war against Iraq, the president's budget calls for a dash for economic growth through another round of tax cuts, a tax-cutting pace President Reagan did not attempt; a prescription drug entitlement linked to reform of Medicare; and reform of the way Americans save. And in a budget-related document, the administration floats the idea of scrapping individual and corporate income taxes in favor of a consumption tax
."
Perhaps it's not that much of a stretch. The Homestead Act may have been an act of do-it-yourself creation of property rights where there were none. It also had the effect of fostering freeholding farmers in counterpoint to the plantations of the rebellious slaveholding states. The land grant colleges are pure pork barrel: in particular they made possible many of the Big Ten universities in a part of the country at the time distant and disconnected from Washington (nothing new here; also nothing new in that units from those states essentially won the war for the Union by securing the west while national command went through one political general after another on the Virginia front.) The location of the Pacific Railroad is also a matter of public choice. The easiest way west would have been from New Orleans to San Diego (although there would have been another spat with Mexico to secure the Carrizo Gorge.) With the south in rebellion, that route was not an option, but keeping California in the Union (see above) mattered a lot, and a route using only free states was available, commencing at Omaha. That choice also set the standard for the railway gauge in North America. Had a southern route been available, the standard may well have become the Southern (and Russian) five foot rather than the Northern 4 feet 8.5 inches (bear that in mind the next time the email about Roman military specifications and the Space Shuttle hits your mailbox.) During the Rebellion, Union engineers relaid Southern track to Northern gauge so as to enjoy superior logistics. After the war many Southern railroads went back to their old gauge and stayed there until the 1880s.
But I digress. This was a post about public choice, after all. I have to wonder whether genuine Social Security accounts, and medical savings accounts, and unbundling health insurance from employment, all haven't been postponed or cancelled (delay being the deadliest form of denial) haven't all become casualties of the war effort.
11.2.03
DISINFORMATION? Instapundit suggests. I heard a translation on the radio news and am inclined to suspect so. Dig trenches and fort up in the cities. "Do whatever you want with me, but don't fling me in that briar patch."
CHESS, SOLVED? Cal Pundit reports, you decide. That there is a solution to chess is well-known (or here.) Will the computers find it? Or will they rewrite the canon of opening theory? Or will human players make greater use of odd openings?
FOURTH TURNING ALERT. "It is the test of the American people whether they have the intelligence to identify multiculturalism for the mistake it is, and the resolve to ensure that it does not triumph over this, the last best hope of mankind." Read and understand.
GUERRILLA THEATER. A common activity during Women's (or is it Womyns') History Month is the cookie sale wherein women get to pay 73 cents for cookies that men pay $1 for. Campus Nonsense found a variant of the tactic employed at UCLA (motto: On! Wisconsin!)
BACK IN SERVICE. The Vermont Reactionary has been back in business for some time, noting follies in Marin-on-Champlain. The archives and the main page are a bit out of synch. Thanks to the SCSU Scholars for references to recent posts.
HOW OTHERS SEE US. Dennis Prager is unimpressed with the idea of academic prestige. "With very few exceptions, any tuition over $10,000 is rarely worth it. This is especially so for students in what is variously called the humanities, the social sciences (a term that is even more deceptive than the tuition), or the liberal arts. In the natural sciences, where students learn without being propagandized, a high tuition is far more often justifiable.
But for the student majoring in subjects such as English, political science or sociology, or in feel-aggrieved programs such as women's studies, students are paying enormous sums of money to be politicized by highly paid and underworked radicals." A bit over the top, perhaps. (Via InstaPundette.)
But for the student majoring in subjects such as English, political science or sociology, or in feel-aggrieved programs such as women's studies, students are paying enormous sums of money to be politicized by highly paid and underworked radicals." A bit over the top, perhaps. (Via InstaPundette.)
FOURTH TURNING ALERTS. David Janes argues, "This is all about 9/11. Everything is about 9/11. I think of lot of non-Americans are underestimating how _pissed_ the US about 9/11, and this has dictated a fundemental, long-term change in American foreign policy: the US will not attempt to "contain" other countries that may pose a threat to the US into the future, as it did with the USSR pre-Reagan, or it's 1990's policy toward the middle-east and near-Asia (the 'stans), and North Korea. In fact, the NK situation is exactly what the US is trying to avoid in the next 10 years in the middle east." Mark Steyn weighs in with "All the late 20th century arrangements--the European Union, NATO and most definitely the UN--are about to be remade." Perhaps so, but that might not be done quickly. The gold standard, the Treaty of Versailles, and the League of Nations were remade, but not in an afternoon. This Den Beste post suggests that there might be a misperception, not a breakdown.
10.2.03
NOTICE OF DISRUPTION OF SERVICE. Amtrak trains return to Grand Central Terminal. "Trains serving Albany with 2-digit train numbers (48, 49, 63, 64, 68 and 69) will continue to operate to/from New York Penn Station via a 27-mile detour." Rare mileage collectors, take note. I believe that also involves a run-around at Rye.
SOCIETE NACIONALE DE BAHN DES WEASELS. Michael Jennings reports, "In a great spirit of European non-cooperation, the French and Germans have each designed their own separate trains, the French TGV and the German ICE. These run on the same track gauge and with the same electrical voltage (25kV AC via overhead wires), but there are other incompatibilities. Early versions of the ICE were too heavy to run on the TGV tracks, and ICE trains can run on steeper gradient tracks than could TGV trains. Both trains are capable of also running on older rail lines, but simply not at speeds any higher than conventional trains." Hmph. Neither of those trains are up to North American crashworthiness standards anyway, and the Acela Express is capable of handling two different voltages and running on tracks that also support North American freight trains (hint: 100 cars plus, 125 short tons per car). Perhaps the Weasel Corridor could try these.
IF THEY HAD LOGICAL PLATFORMING .... "But from which platform would the next train to Victoria depart? This is a classic Clapham Junction dilemma. Many trains converge on Clapham Junction destined for Victoria, and there are two different platforms at which a Victoria-bound train might arrive and from which a Victoria-bound train might depart. These are, if I remember the numbers correctly, platform 12 and platform 14." If you set the stations up such that the Up Victoria tracks were adjacent to each other, rather than altenately Up Victoria and Down Vauxhall, that wouldn't be a problem, would it? (See Newark or the Kearney Connection for such configurations.) There is now a train indicator in the pedestrian underpass indicating where the next Victoria service will be.
MORE POWER OF THE INTERNET. InstaPundit posted some contact pages for German-based companies. I have not yet been able to open Volkswagen's. Hey VW, join my ancestors and migrate to Wisconsin, or to Brazil!
THE POWER OF THE INTERNET? Mindles wanted to vote "yes" on a Guardian poll and had all sorts of trouble voting. I didn't find references to that one (no surprise, it's now Monday), but I did find a Free Republic invitation to visit a BBC poll. No evidence in the comments section to the post that poll-freeping was in progress.
AND YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR QUOTE OF THE DAY: Wisconsin accounting professor Larry "Rittenberg said employee shortages - even those in government - typically go away when the pay goes up enough." Duhhh. Now if we could just get writers to stop crafting clinkers like this: "The reduced supply has driven up demand - and pay - for accountants sought by rival accounting firms. In turn, that is making it more difficult for the federal government to offer competitive wages." Where's the shortage? Certified public accountants. That's good news for Northern Illinois University, at least in the short term.
DISCRIMINATING FOR EQUALITY. This Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article suggests intercollegiate athletics might learn a few things from the high schools about providing equal access to sports. The big stumbling block: colleges have athletic scholarships. Changes the accounting.
CONTINGENT LIABILITIES. American Kaiser is not happy with the possibility that Bethlehem Steel's buyer might be able to avoid providing health insurance for Bethlehem's pensioners. He's also not happy with there being a federal agency insuring pensions. Finding the efficient outcome isn't always easy.
AND YET ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There are more planes in the ocean than there are submarines in the sky." That's at Old Blind Dog, a retired Marine aviator and flight instructor out of Nacogdoches, Texas. The blogspot archives are a bit squirrelly at the moment, and his archives don't use the same structure as mine, so I couldn't go into his February 1 coverage, which looks to be extensive.
UPDATE: The archives are working, and his coverage the day of the wreck is extensive.
UPDATE: The archives are working, and his coverage the day of the wreck is extensive.
DUDE, YOU'RE GETTING THIRTY DAYS, reports The Smoking Gun (via the recovering No. 2 Pencil, who has had more snow days in the Carolinas than we have had in northern Illinois.)
UPDATE: The five pm radio news guy said, "Dude, you're getting a cell."
UPDATE: The five pm radio news guy said, "Dude, you're getting a cell."
ANOTHER CANDIDATE FOR QUOTE OF THE DAY "At this point, the pursuit of diversity is quickly becoming identified with defiance of the law," according to Critical Mass.
HOW OTHERS SEE US. Joanne Jacobs gets off one candidate for quote of the week: "Gee, if knowledge is a function of power, then President Bush knows a lot more than the intellectuals." It's a survey of a number of exegeses of Mark Goldblatt's visit to the Modern Language Association convention (OK, mocking the lit-crits is just this side of taking baby's candy) where he discovers the implicit finger-quote and other devices. There's some serious commentary here and some commentary on the lighter side here (the bit about Mutually Assured Deconstruction is quite nice), and here.
Some time ago I wrote an essay for the Faculty Bulletin at this university in which I suggested that people who denied coherent beliefs of any kind ought prepare to enjoy incoherence. Apparently some still do. But you'd think that people who claim some familiarity with the works of Marx would not be so willing voluntarily to participate in the reserve army of the unemployed.
Some time ago I wrote an essay for the Faculty Bulletin at this university in which I suggested that people who denied coherent beliefs of any kind ought prepare to enjoy incoherence. Apparently some still do. But you'd think that people who claim some familiarity with the works of Marx would not be so willing voluntarily to participate in the reserve army of the unemployed.
SPENDTHRIFT. Find out who is the most profligate President since Richard Nixon. With cross-references and more cross references. What was that Parkinson line about spending rising to meet available income?
READ IT IN THE ORIGINAL. Brad DeLong pays tribute to the Classic Works. Don't miss the comments. In my experience, the originals are well worth a look. There are some questions on pp. 40-42 of the 8th edition of Marshall's Principles of Economics that remain open today ... anyone seeking a dissertation topic would do well to start there. And some of John Maurice Clark's writings on workable competition anticipates contestability theory.
BYE, DADDY. Thursday night's Nightline covered the departure preparations of a Marine unit from Camp Pendleton. The closing tape was of the troops marching off. A couple of small voices called out, "Bye, Daddy." That got to me. The Marines go into harm's way in order that their kids can be safe. I wish them all a safe return.
THE URGE TO MERGE. Buzz Machine is unimpressed, likely for good reasons, with arguments that media mating means more mating on screen. His parting shot, however, is a bit much: "Let's get this straight: Sex sells. Sex is fun. Sex is good. Gotta problem with that? Then you're the freak, geek." Buzz Machine ought to be able to take on an argument about media concentration without making a foolish argument of his own. What does that sex sell? The battle of the sexes continues in the pages of the University paper, with these laments being the most recent, and the most jaded. Note in particular both columnists use of the term "single" to mean "not currently engaged in commit-and-switch with anyone." That last, of course, is a "relationship." As in "baggage" and "issues" therefrom, and as in a BMW radio commercial wherein the narrator asks, "Imagine if relationships could be certified." (That used to exist, before no-fault divorce.) Where is the fun, or the good, in that? Or, while you're selling the fun, imagine what the release for this reality show must look like. "Participant acknowledges that by appearing on this show, he or she may offer or be offered a casual sexual encounter with a near-stranger. Participant acknowledges that by appearing on this show, he or she may be treated very rudely by a near-stranger. Nothing in this release is to be construed as guaranteeing either or both of these experiences."
HOW OTHERS SEE US. Juan Gato gets a few chuckles from this source of anthropological hypotheses for SUV ownership in Marin County (motto: get naked and do it to Old Glory). There is a simpler explanation for "consumption decisions." In economics, we call them incentives. The sport-ute is the logical outcome of regulations that reduced the availability of station wagons and other family cars whilst preserving the ability of farm trucks.
9.2.03
BOLT=TIGHTEN. Aviation Week has more information about evidence of damage to Columbia's wing and the construction of that part of the ship. (Via Doc Searls.)
HOW OTHERS SEE US. "We should think, as the professors do, in multicultural terms and, therefore, render no moral judgment over Iraq or any other nation except Israel. Who am I to declare any regimes an "axis of evil"?" That's a taste of a Dennis Prager column recommended on Betsy's Page. It would be hilarious but that I have to work with people who think that way.
COSTS AND BENEFITS. Are you safer driving to the launch pad or riding the Space Shuttle? Hint: the basis of comparison matters.
QUOTE FOR THE DAY: "Message to Christians: if you're offended, get over it. Message to Muslims: we feel your pain, and we'll make you feel better, even it requires censorship." That's Laura Ingraham, as noted on Betsy's Page.
6.2.03
5.2.03
IT BEGAN WITH PLATO. The SCSU Scholars offer a response to my suggestion that limiting the power of the machinery of repression is more important than obtaining control of it. "But it isn't that simple. When you conceive of rights as coming from the state, as does the modern liberal (as opposed to the classical one), then power is relatively constant. You can't create or destroy it, you simply fight over who will possess it. Like Tolkein's Ring, nobody is safe from the lure of power. (It always comes back to Tolkein.) Stephen is right, but he's asking people to think about this in a way they simply cannot fathom."
Fair enough. I argue that it comes back to Plato: this is simply the latest iteration of the philosopher king model. And I am a relatively small and inexperienced voice in the conversation. Let me offer a larger and more experienced voice: "All you freedom-loving 'left wing" thinkers in the West! You left laborites! You progressive American, German, and French students! As far as you are concerned, none of this amounts to much. As far as you are concerned, this whole book of mine is a waste of effort. You may suddenly understand it all someday -- but only when you yourselves hear 'hands behind your backs there!' and step ashore on our Archipelago." It may not be mine to finish the task, but I will not give it up.
Tolkien? Latecomer when it comes to magic rings.
Fair enough. I argue that it comes back to Plato: this is simply the latest iteration of the philosopher king model. And I am a relatively small and inexperienced voice in the conversation. Let me offer a larger and more experienced voice: "All you freedom-loving 'left wing" thinkers in the West! You left laborites! You progressive American, German, and French students! As far as you are concerned, none of this amounts to much. As far as you are concerned, this whole book of mine is a waste of effort. You may suddenly understand it all someday -- but only when you yourselves hear 'hands behind your backs there!' and step ashore on our Archipelago." It may not be mine to finish the task, but I will not give it up.
Tolkien? Latecomer when it comes to magic rings.
NOT A KNOCKDOWN PUFF. The latest coverage of the Columbia post-mortem is looking at causes other than tile damage account shedding of external tank insulation on takeoff. "[Shuttle program manager Ron] Dittemore said that during Columbia's final minutes, the autopilot was causing the craft to rapidly move the control surfaces and to eventually even fire small rockets in a losing effort to gain control of the yawing motion of Columbia." Couple that with the slight rise in temperature on the port wing and you have something akin to a sailboat on a broad reach getting hit with a knockdown puff. In a displacement sloop, you simply ease the jib and the main and keep going. In a planing catboat, such as the Laser, where there is only a mainsail, that is a very dangerous strategy (it took me a few swims to figure it out) as easing the main has the potential to create a positive feedback loop leading to the sail rolling the boat to windward: the death roll. (Best have the cunningham lead made fast, as that's the only thing holding the mast to the boat as it turtles.) The proper response to the knockdown puff is to trim in and enjoy the ride! (I have some silverware attesting to how enjoyable THAT can be.)
Knockdown puffs don't happen at the edge of the atmosphere, according to a meteorologist I asked. "At that altitude, they wouldn't have come into contact with stronger winds. They'd have to get another 50,000-100,000 feet lower for that. Also, the wind gradient in the jet stream up there is never that sharp; since the friction of the earth's surface is zero for all intents and purposes, the only way there could have been anything remotely wrong is if they flew over a really tall thunderstorm. Obviously, the weather was fine where it happened. Clear air turbulence is not a factor up there, either." So, what happened to provide signals to the guidance system to make corrections that did not provide negative feedback?
UPDATE: My brother the King Air pilot provides the following "no s***, this really happened" moment: "I, for one, have experienced failures of the autopilot on the King Airs that I (used to) fly in which the autopilot was working perfectly well and suddenly decided to send some odd command or another causing one of those brief moments of sheer terror during the hours of monotony that we quip about. There have been cases in which the attitude indicator from which the autopilot takes its input tumbles and the autopilot "corrects" and places the aircraft in an unusual attitude. However, with all of the back up systems on the space shuttle, I should think that a tumbled gyro or flaky autopilot would be taken off line and replaced by one of the redundant ones.
It will be interesting to see what NASA learns from this accident."
Quite.
Knockdown puffs don't happen at the edge of the atmosphere, according to a meteorologist I asked. "At that altitude, they wouldn't have come into contact with stronger winds. They'd have to get another 50,000-100,000 feet lower for that. Also, the wind gradient in the jet stream up there is never that sharp; since the friction of the earth's surface is zero for all intents and purposes, the only way there could have been anything remotely wrong is if they flew over a really tall thunderstorm. Obviously, the weather was fine where it happened. Clear air turbulence is not a factor up there, either." So, what happened to provide signals to the guidance system to make corrections that did not provide negative feedback?
UPDATE: My brother the King Air pilot provides the following "no s***, this really happened" moment: "I, for one, have experienced failures of the autopilot on the King Airs that I (used to) fly in which the autopilot was working perfectly well and suddenly decided to send some odd command or another causing one of those brief moments of sheer terror during the hours of monotony that we quip about. There have been cases in which the attitude indicator from which the autopilot takes its input tumbles and the autopilot "corrects" and places the aircraft in an unusual attitude. However, with all of the back up systems on the space shuttle, I should think that a tumbled gyro or flaky autopilot would be taken off line and replaced by one of the redundant ones.
It will be interesting to see what NASA learns from this accident."
Quite.
4.2.03
DEPORTATION?. Where Worlds Collide notes that the Charities Commission has dismissed Sheikh Abu Hamza as an agent of London's Finsbury Park Mosque. Hamza is one of those who saw divine intervention in Columbia crashing. As Where Worlds Collide notes, "Of course, all Hamza achieves is to encourage an anti moslem backlash. It's long overdue to deport this nutjob (who's not a UK citizen). That's assuming we can find a single country in the world that would accept him."
WHAT FUTURE FOR SPACE EXPLORATION, II. "To make a business out of flying reusable rocket-powered vehicles, you need to fly more than once a day, not just every couple of weeks." That sounds like a shuttle operation. It's XCOR chief engineer Dan Delong describing progress with Dick Rutan's E-Z Rocket. They're still a long way from a going commercial proposition. But it's time to think anew about the roles of rocketry, and the role of government in those roles. Paul Krugman is not the only commentator to suggest, "It's an open secret that the only real purpose of the International Space Station is to give us a reason to keep flying space shuttles." Here is a prescient 1998 column by Rocket Boy Homer Hickam: "What we will see in the next five years, then, is a NASA that is going to build the ISS, exhausting our shuttle fleet and its supporting personnel in the process. If we're lucky enough not to have a shuttle failure, or wholesale resignation of disgusted NASA engineers, the result of all of this expenditure of effort and money will be some linked trailers in space which we will grandly call a space station, a station, unfortunately, in name only. Its inclination will be too northerly to use for an efficient crewed flight to the moon or moving out along the plane of the solar system to Mars or anywhere else." He's not done: "These two programs [the space station and the shuttle] continue to dominate NASA and will, if we continue to let them eat our space agency alive, ultimately strand us as a space-faring nation as surely as the payloads aboard our recently misfired rockets." Ultimately, Hickam, also, would like to go to Mars, but with something other than chemical-fueled rockets.
But basic research and development, and interplanetary missions, are something different from placing satellites in orbit. Happy Fun Pundit, who has some thoughts on the role of government in space exploration, hasn't finished his argument. There are reasons to unbundle the interplanetary missions and the development of new rocket engines from the somewhat more routine placement of satellites, particularly commercial satellites, in orbit. There is no reason for the entire space enterprise to be a government monopoly.
But basic research and development, and interplanetary missions, are something different from placing satellites in orbit. Happy Fun Pundit, who has some thoughts on the role of government in space exploration, hasn't finished his argument. There are reasons to unbundle the interplanetary missions and the development of new rocket engines from the somewhat more routine placement of satellites, particularly commercial satellites, in orbit. There is no reason for the entire space enterprise to be a government monopoly.
WHAT FUTURE FOR SPACE EXPLORATION, I Plant the flag on Mars, according to Pathetic Earthlings and James Lileks and Sgt. Stryker and Charles Krauthammer and Spider Robinson. Perhaps so. But then set that as a goal, and have the people and the machinery to make it happen.
INSTITUTIONS EVOLVE TO REDUCE TRANSACTION COSTS. "In the 21st century, a government must earn its right to claim sovereignty," argues Ralph Peters. Perhaps so, although his criteria for granting sovereignty are somewhat more stringent than the conditions laid down ab initio in the U.S. Constitution for the right to vote.
REPRESSIVE VS. LIBERATING INTOLERANCE. Both Betsy's Page and Joanne Jacobs point to a Daphne Patai essay noting a new interest in academic freedom as an absolute value. To quote Joanne Jacobs, "Campus Watch and No Indoctrination are causing acute goosebumps in academia." As I noted some time ago, "It's really very simple, if one thinks about it. Give John Ashcroft no power you'd fear to see in Janet Reno's hands, and give Catherine MacKinnon no power you'd fear to see in mine."
NEW SOURCE OF COMPANY MAIL. Arnold Kling is offering comments on economics, from the right of Brad and the left of Virginia, who pointed me his way. But would you really want to use the Hotelling-Eaton & Lipsey-Salop model as the starting point for the economics of web logs?
COMPARATIVE DISADVANTAGES. The SCSU Scholars have the following description of their University's Johnny-one-note president: "Even [in reference to Columbia] he had to bring race in. He quite simply has shown no capability to understand any of the functions of higher education nor the issues concerning it other than his one pet issue. Our poor university has been badly served for a long time by administrations significantly weaker than either our good faculty or excellent students deserve, and Saigo continues that weary tradition."
3.2.03
KIA ORA. Daniel Drezner is back from New Zealand, where, he notes, "[i]t was very relaxing to be in a country where the leading paper had -- maybe -- two pages of global news coverage. This is in contrast to the endless coverage of the America's Cup." Which, this year, will be contested between Team New Zealand and a Swiss team with Chris Dickson, New Zealander, at the helm. Where is the "arm of the sea" in Switzerland? On the other hand, there is a Lake Geneva, and the Societe Nautique de Geneve translates loosely as Lake Geneva Yacht Club.
Professor Drezner notes that President Bush has moved the cloud of dust another three yards.
CORRECTION. Russell Coutts, not Chris Dickson. Both are Kiwi mercenaries, but Coutts, along with tactician Brad Butterworth, are from the New Zealand effort that brought the Cup south in 1995 and defended it in 2000. Racing starts February 15.
Professor Drezner notes that President Bush has moved the cloud of dust another three yards.
CORRECTION. Russell Coutts, not Chris Dickson. Both are Kiwi mercenaries, but Coutts, along with tactician Brad Butterworth, are from the New Zealand effort that brought the Cup south in 1995 and defended it in 2000. Racing starts February 15.
THIS LOOKS DUBIOUS. An Italian website is publishing pictures that purport to show large cracks in the wings of a Space Shuttle. (Via Drudge.) Don't believe everything you see. The picture correctly shows Earth in the background, with the cracked wings in the foreground. The Shuttle takes a tail-toward-Earth attitude for orbiting. That means the photographer (on the Space Station? a remote on a satellite?) must be further from Earth than the Shuttle. Could not have been someone on the Space Station. Unlikely to have been a spy satellite.
TWO NATIONS? "It is almost as if we have become two nations: One, a nation of whiny chattering victims, of therapists, nannies, litigators, and a navel-gazing obsession with feelings. The other, a nation of quiet valor." That's Milwaukee author and talk-show host Charlie Sykes this morning.
25 YEARS No freight car more than 25 years old may be used for interchange service on the U.S. and Canadian railroads. Here's a bibliography of inter alia the rules for interchange service and these people handle specific questions for shippers and carriers. The fastest a freight car goes is usually 70 mph (110 km/h) and the coldest temperatures they encounter are no worse than -50 (Celsius or Fahrenheit, either way much warmer than the upper atmosphere.)
THE WEAKEST PLACE MUST STAND THE STRAIN. What ultimately happens is a matter of logic. Might also make uncovering the ultimate cause of Columbia's failure more challenging.
2.2.03
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A ROUTINE TRIP. Yes, that's the point behind a recent Scrapple Face post, but there's a serious point to it. We seem to recognize the non-routine-ness of space exploration, as Transterrestrial Musings explains, and Pathetic Earthlings rebuttal to Gregg Easterbrook spells out.
It's a point daily commuters would do well to bear in mind as well.
InstaPundit's comparison of the Shuttle failure with a fatal train collision in Zimbabwe (there was one in Australia recently as well, noted at Where Worlds Collide.) misses the mark in three ways. "What makes the Columbia's loss more striking than the deaths of train passengers is that space exploration is forward-looking, not just part of ordinary life, and such a loss is a setback to something important, and noble. It's not that astronauts' lives are worth more than those of anyone else; it's what they do, and what it stands for." First, that depends on your perspective. My well-worn 1991 edition of Jane's World Railways describes the National Railways of Zimbabwe as 2759 route-kilometers, 313 km electrified, of 1067 mm gauge (3'6" or Cape gauge, use S track to model it in O scale) in a country slightly larger than Montana. By contrast, the New Zealand railways operate 4227 route-kilometers, 519 km electrified (at two different voltages) of 1067 mm gauge on two islands together about the size of Colorado, with mountains to match, and the Boston and Maine Railroad operates 2532 route-kilometers of 1435 mm gauge (4' 8.5") track on a much-shrunken network of tracks in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and bits of Maine and New York. The railway is still an instrument of prosperity and progress in much of the world (yes, even new steam locomotives on the Jingpeng Pass are more of a great leap forward than anything Chairman Mao envisioned) and a train crash remains a setback to the aspirations of many people. Second, our attitudes toward risk are much different now than they were when the railroad was opening up the North American hinterland. Every rule in the Consolidated Code of Operating Rules is written in someone's blood. It took a long time, and a lot of maimed and dead trainmen, before the automatic air brake and the automatic coupler became standard equipment, and we still tolerate rather a lot of carnage at the highway crossings. We ought not let that carnage harden us to the loss of seven astronauts; rather, we ought to contemplate the costs and benefits of making other things that seem routine safer. Finally, there are commonalities between the space program and railways in much of the world. Consider Professor Reynolds's recommendation to Congress: "Although the United States has made significant progress already in developing a truly commercial space sector, it has a considerable distance yet to go. For decades, all space activity was undertaken by governments, leading to the creation of institutional structures, bureaucratic cultures, and ways of doing business that are poorly adapted to the commercial marketplace. In trying to promote the growth of commercial space industries, the U.S. government must overcome these inbuilt biases, and encourage the formation of new structures and cultures that are well-suited to the realities of the commercial marketplace." That is the nature of railroading around much of the world. Professor Reynolds's colleague, Brock Yates, is able to demonstrate his ignorance of railroading realities in part because the structure and culture most suited to the commercial marketplace in transportation in the United States is one of freight service only, with single-shipper trains often of a single cargo (including a shipload of containers) for a single destination. I am sympathetic to the suggestion that space exploration is not exclusively a government function. Perhaps our space policy makers can learn a few things from our railroads.
It's a point daily commuters would do well to bear in mind as well.
InstaPundit's comparison of the Shuttle failure with a fatal train collision in Zimbabwe (there was one in Australia recently as well, noted at Where Worlds Collide.) misses the mark in three ways. "What makes the Columbia's loss more striking than the deaths of train passengers is that space exploration is forward-looking, not just part of ordinary life, and such a loss is a setback to something important, and noble. It's not that astronauts' lives are worth more than those of anyone else; it's what they do, and what it stands for." First, that depends on your perspective. My well-worn 1991 edition of Jane's World Railways describes the National Railways of Zimbabwe as 2759 route-kilometers, 313 km electrified, of 1067 mm gauge (3'6" or Cape gauge, use S track to model it in O scale) in a country slightly larger than Montana. By contrast, the New Zealand railways operate 4227 route-kilometers, 519 km electrified (at two different voltages) of 1067 mm gauge on two islands together about the size of Colorado, with mountains to match, and the Boston and Maine Railroad operates 2532 route-kilometers of 1435 mm gauge (4' 8.5") track on a much-shrunken network of tracks in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and bits of Maine and New York. The railway is still an instrument of prosperity and progress in much of the world (yes, even new steam locomotives on the Jingpeng Pass are more of a great leap forward than anything Chairman Mao envisioned) and a train crash remains a setback to the aspirations of many people. Second, our attitudes toward risk are much different now than they were when the railroad was opening up the North American hinterland. Every rule in the Consolidated Code of Operating Rules is written in someone's blood. It took a long time, and a lot of maimed and dead trainmen, before the automatic air brake and the automatic coupler became standard equipment, and we still tolerate rather a lot of carnage at the highway crossings. We ought not let that carnage harden us to the loss of seven astronauts; rather, we ought to contemplate the costs and benefits of making other things that seem routine safer. Finally, there are commonalities between the space program and railways in much of the world. Consider Professor Reynolds's recommendation to Congress: "Although the United States has made significant progress already in developing a truly commercial space sector, it has a considerable distance yet to go. For decades, all space activity was undertaken by governments, leading to the creation of institutional structures, bureaucratic cultures, and ways of doing business that are poorly adapted to the commercial marketplace. In trying to promote the growth of commercial space industries, the U.S. government must overcome these inbuilt biases, and encourage the formation of new structures and cultures that are well-suited to the realities of the commercial marketplace." That is the nature of railroading around much of the world. Professor Reynolds's colleague, Brock Yates, is able to demonstrate his ignorance of railroading realities in part because the structure and culture most suited to the commercial marketplace in transportation in the United States is one of freight service only, with single-shipper trains often of a single cargo (including a shipload of containers) for a single destination. I am sympathetic to the suggestion that space exploration is not exclusively a government function. Perhaps our space policy makers can learn a few things from our railroads.
VISIONS OF THE FUTURE. Blaster's Blog has some observations about the State of the Union address lacking an uplifting vision, something along the lines of the 1939 New York World's Fair or perhaps President Kennedy's deadline for a round trip to the Moon. He also has some eerily prescient comments about the obsolescence of the Space Shuttle. But I wish to focus on one of the items in his tribute to the World's Fair, the "Raymond Loewy designed locomotive."
Raymond Loewy only made it look fast. The design staff at the Pennsylvania Railroad designed it to go fast. The Interstate Commerce Commission gave its operators the railway equivalent of a speeding ticket. And scaled down, it is an absolutely awesome desk ornament, when it's not being tweaked to run.
REALITY IS NOT SO EXCITING. "It's him! The Karlson millionaire! That independently wealthy playboy!" Not here. But if you want to find out that millionaire's dirty little secret, read more.
NOTICE OF DISRUPTION OF SERVICES. All the plausible and implausible reasons your train is late. (Via Where Worlds Collide.)
MAKE IT FIT. You have to plan ahead, even in N Scale. On the other hand, British modellers would likely find my basement spacious.
INNUMERACY. During the coverage of the search and recovery of Columbia several commentators brought out the "one failure in 100" argument as if such an event was inevitable. I wish one of the following: expectation was easier to understand, expectation was taught more effectively, or people would work harder at grasping what it means. (My frustration is not limited to transportation disasters, the same thing happens when major floods occur two out of three years in the same area.)
The expectation of one catastrophic failure in 100 missions is a PROBABILITY. Got that? It does not mean that there WILL be a catastrophic failure on mission 100, OR on EXACTLY one of missions 1, 2, ..., 100. It means that, to the best knowledge of the designers, something CAN go wrong and their ESTIMATE of its LIKELIHOOD is 1 in 100. (Let's see, when pitchers and catchers report, I will revisit this argument. I'm too bummed to attempt to be funny today.)
I also found the talk of Columbia's failure on "only its 28th mission" galling. Does anybody remember why this experimental aircraft is called the SPACE SHUTTLE? It was intended to operate on, if not subway frequency, something resembling the sailing schedules of the transatlantic passenger liners of yore. The fleet was supposed to approximate that pace for the first time in 1986. Under the original plans, Columbia and her sisters were to have completed their 100 missions by now and be in honorable retirement at inter alia the Air and Space Museum.
Where we are, then, is this: an EXPERIMENTAL aircraft (the prototype, in this case) for which the mean time to failure of many components is not well-defined, in operation beyond its design life (not a fatal flaw, the Model T Ford, the Piper Cub, the B-52 bomber, and the GP-7 locomotive hold up well.) The problem with experimental machinery is that you don't know with great precision what components are worn out by use as opposed to by age. We understand that for automobiles: change the oil no later than three months OR no further than 3,000 miles from where you are now. The analogous conditions for what constitutes a life-expired component of an experimental machine are nowhere near as well-defined. Kindly be advised that the consequences of failure of a life-expired component often are serious.
The expectation of one catastrophic failure in 100 missions is a PROBABILITY. Got that? It does not mean that there WILL be a catastrophic failure on mission 100, OR on EXACTLY one of missions 1, 2, ..., 100. It means that, to the best knowledge of the designers, something CAN go wrong and their ESTIMATE of its LIKELIHOOD is 1 in 100. (Let's see, when pitchers and catchers report, I will revisit this argument. I'm too bummed to attempt to be funny today.)
I also found the talk of Columbia's failure on "only its 28th mission" galling. Does anybody remember why this experimental aircraft is called the SPACE SHUTTLE? It was intended to operate on, if not subway frequency, something resembling the sailing schedules of the transatlantic passenger liners of yore. The fleet was supposed to approximate that pace for the first time in 1986. Under the original plans, Columbia and her sisters were to have completed their 100 missions by now and be in honorable retirement at inter alia the Air and Space Museum.
Where we are, then, is this: an EXPERIMENTAL aircraft (the prototype, in this case) for which the mean time to failure of many components is not well-defined, in operation beyond its design life (not a fatal flaw, the Model T Ford, the Piper Cub, the B-52 bomber, and the GP-7 locomotive hold up well.) The problem with experimental machinery is that you don't know with great precision what components are worn out by use as opposed to by age. We understand that for automobiles: change the oil no later than three months OR no further than 3,000 miles from where you are now. The analogous conditions for what constitutes a life-expired component of an experimental machine are nowhere near as well-defined. Kindly be advised that the consequences of failure of a life-expired component often are serious.
ETERNAL FATHER FOR SPACEFARERS. Jim Flowers' Radio Weblog provides two other stanzas, one penned by Robert Heinlein.
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