BIG BUSINESS DEAD POOL. I sometimes tease my students about finding a bookie who will give me odds on which of today's business giants crashes first. It's easy enough to come up with a Wal-Mart scenario: once they've colonized the big cities, all the pools of budget-conscious shoppers have a smiley face over them, and attempts to reposition a product have perils. (Miller Beer might have managed a downward repositioning from "Champagne of Bottled Beer" to "Miller Time" but that wasn't easy and now there's an attempt to make retro upscale.) Now the outline of a Microsoft scenario, via Newmark's Door.) The closing sentence reminds me of a late-1950s evaluation of United States Steel.

I see a company that has settled in and has become big, profitable, and unexciting, lacking real focus or spirit.

Place your bets.