A TEMPORARY PARITY?

Twelve days ago, before a single whistle blew, a men's tournament round of eight comprising Virginia, North Carolina State; Duke, Michigan State, Houston, Xavier; and Kansas, Ukla would appear to be a respectable office pool submission, well cognizant of the "them that has gets" characteristic of the tournament's second weekend, by which the upstarts get their fifteen minutes of fame and shuffle off to the land of story-telling.  It would also be incapable of advancing further in the pool (one and done; round of sixteen and no more; ditto; ditto).  Is it parity, or are the new transfer rules contributing?  "This is the second time in three years that four of the top 'blue blood' programs — North Carolina, Kansas, Duke and Kentucky — are not in the Sweet 16. From 1980 to 2019, at least one of those teams got this far in every year's tournament."  Neither North Carolina nor Kentucky qualified.  North Carolina were a consensus high tournament seed before a sneaker was laced up in October, see also Bush, Jeb! or Hillary! circa 2008.  It's an occupational hazard at Kentucky to recruit the next crop of immediate professional basketball draft picks, ride them for a season, then there might be an off year or so to find the next cohort.

The transfer dynamic?  That's relatively new, and I submit its permanent effect is yet to be determined.

The NCAA changed its transfer portal system in April of 2021 to allow athletes to switch schools and play immediately. It's had a big impact on spreading talent: Last year, about 1,650 Division I men's college basketball players went into the portal.

Coaches and programs are still figuring out how to adjust — and how to retain top players.

The confounding effect of the corona tyranny remains to be identified.  Because the spring tournaments, including basketball and hockey, were cancelled in 2020 and competition in subsequent seasons has been disrupted by cancellations or empty arenas or the public health officials having brain farts, the Association granted players an extra year of eligibility.  That extra eligibility included a few extra athletic scholarships, but the scholarships are scarce resources, and that new talent, whether for a year, or for a full career, doesn't come for free.