ACCUMULATE THOSE SMALL ADVANTAGES.

I forget where I read it, was it a game theory book or a strategy book?  A sportswriter asks a pitcher, "What would you throw to Ted Williams on a 1-2 count?"  Yes, I'm Ted Williams old.  The lesson is still the same.  The pitcher responds, "How did I get the two strikes and a ball?"

Now consider where the Green Bay Packers found themselves, late in the divisional playoff game, with an opportunity to take a seven point lead.  A successful field goal and decent kickoff coverage puts the 'Niners a long way from the end zone, and a touchdown still requires a conversion to tie or to win.  A missed field goal shortens the excursion, and a touchdown produces a lead.  We all know how that turned out. Missed field goal, good field position, how best conserve time to attempt a tying field goal?

The Packers chose not to take any timeouts in that stretch, however, giving them 1:07 and three timeouts to try to get a tie or a lead.

Love started the drive with an 8-yard out to Doubs, then missed incomplete to Doubs on second down. He hit Luke Musgrave to move the chains before taking a timeout, but on first down, Love made the worst possible decision in the moment. Under pressure and rolling out to the right, he heaved a ball back across the field, and Dre Greenlaw came under it for his second interception, this one a game-winner.

The slagging on the new placekicker, Anders Carlson, and the new quarterback, Jordan Love, commenced immediately.  But how did the Packers get to that outcome?

All that came after the Packers squandered multiple opportunities, particularly early in the game. Green Bay scored touchdowns on just two of five red zone chances, turning the ball over on downs once and settling for field goals on their other two opportunities in the first half. Packers defenders also dropped multiple potential interceptions that could have changed the complexion of the game, as Brock Purdy was inaccurate throughout the game.

But in the end. Purdy completed five of six pass attempts on the Niners’ game-winning drive, while Christian McCaffrey delivered the go-ahead score to send them on to next Sunday’s conference title game.

The Packers press office also notes the small advantages not accumulated.

The missed opportunities came in all three phases. The offense went 0-for-3 in the red zone in the first half, settling for a pair of Anders Carlson 29-yard field goals and turning over the ball on downs at the start of the second quarter.

The defense had multiple chances to pick off Purdy, beginning with a Darnell Savage pass defensed on San Francisco's fourth play of the game. Nickel cornerback Keisean Nixon came close to another later in the game.

Greenlaw parlayed two Love misfires into second-half takeaways. The 49ers used the first to set up rookie kicker Jake Moody for a 52-yard field goal, which cut Green Bay's lead to 21-17 just seconds in the fourth quarter.

The 49ers converted 10 third downs, including three on their final scoring drive. Prior to McCaffrey running for a 6-yard TD on third-and-1, San Francisco converted a third-and-5 situation with a 10-yard pass to Brandon Aiyuk. On the next play, Chris Conley caught a 17-yard pass to move into scoring territory.

Had the Packers won that game, it might be San Francisco fans grousing about a rookie kicker, or perhaps questioning the play-calling before and after halftime.  There's something in the rhythm of the game that leads to the team that kicks off getting the last possession of the first half and if they defer they get the ball to open the second half, and the Cowboys worked that for ten points in the wild-card round.  The 'Niners, on the other hand, blocked field goal, three and out.

So it goes in football.  On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills, at home, had a chance to tie the Chiefs with a field goal as time ran out.  Wide right.  One more week at least of Taylor Swift sightings.  In Detroit, the Buccaneers had to score a late touchdown and a two point conversion to get to overtime.  Tampa replaced Tom Brady with an experienced, Heisman Trophy quarterback, Baker Mayfield, who achieved a perfect quarterback rating in Green Bay earlier this season, back when it looked like reality meant no playoffs.  Last chance, decent kickoff return, two time out opportunities left, and he throws an interception.  It's a difficult game and at the end of the season, only one team has a happy flight home.

I wish, though, that the announcers would stop bringing up relatively meaningless factoids.  Think back to the Outback, er, ReliaQuest, Bowl, in which Wisconsin outplayed Louisiana State for 57 minutes (that's beginning to sound familiar, isn't it?)  Apparently Louisiana State had not won a game that season after trailing by fourteen points, and somebody had to mention that.  Saturday night, the meaningless factoid was something about the Niners not winning a game entering the fourth quarter trailing by seven since Bill Walsh was coaching, or something, and somebody had to mention that, and it held up for about 57 minutes.

It was a fun run for the Packers.  I trust they'll take an education from it and get on with the work of getting better.  It's still wintry here and there's a railroad to work on.