THE PATH TO MILWAUKEE GOES THROUGH SPARTANBURG.

The Republican presidential competition is down to two hopefuls, former president Donald Trump, and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.  The next state primary will be in South Carolina, and voters are considering their options.

On paper, South Carolina offers the broad Republican coalition Haley has sought. It has a larger presidential primary electorate than other early nominating states; turnout was 740,000 in 2016 — almost 200,000 more than Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada combined. South Carolina has a large presence of every Republican faction: evangelicals and social conservatives; anti-tax Tea Party activists; national security hawks; business-minded traditionalists.

It's going to be a hard sell all the same.

“She has been the most articulate candidate in this campaign,” Ralph Carter, a Southern Baptist pastor in Greer, said before a rally outside Greenville.

Carter backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. He said he knew “both times” that Trump did not reflect his personal values, but Carter said he wanted a Republican administration. The Jan. 6 insurrection, he said, was a breaking point. Carter declined to speculate what he would do this November if Trump is nominated again; he said Haley offers Republicans the obvious solution to avoid that choice.

Mr Trump has a large, loyal base, many of whom support him because they perceive his legal troubles as more machinations by the Permanent Bipartisan Establishment to drive him out of national politics and deter anyone else with similar views from even trying.  That's not how to assemble a winning coalition.

How, then, might Ms Haley assemble a coalition that can win?  Peggy Noonan, who wrote some of Ronald Reagan's best speeches, has thoughts.

For useful advice I turned to my friend Landon Parvin, savant and veteran Washington speechwriter, who tore himself away from work to offer practical thoughts.

Go for broke, Landon said; there’s only one subject now and it’s Mr. Trump. Go at him, make it new. “Feel the freedom of your situation,” he says to Ms. Haley. “Self-respect is at issue. You’re not slinking off under pressure. There is something glorious about a last stand.”

“You alone now carry the banner. Speak up for all the Republicans who have been demeaned, diminished and threatened by Trump. He can no longer hurt you. Pick up the sword. You don’t have to give Shakespeare’s band-of-brothers speech but live it!”

Lean into being a woman. “The woman card is untapped by Republican women because they don’t like identity politics.” But the suburbs will appreciate it, and Mr. Trump is going after you as a woman, insulting how you present yourself, calling you “birdbrain.” “You were once in the Little Miss Bamberg, S.C., pageant and sang ‘This Land Is Your Land.’ That’s a beautiful thing for the daughter of immigrants. Trump desecrates such images, this man who owned the Miss USA pageant and grabbed women by certain parts. This is bigger than you. Speak up for Republican women.”

People who might have stayed home in 2020 or held their nose and voted for Mr Biden might be receptive.  And the Southern "bless your heart" has more potential than a lot of people think.

But the issue is Mr. Trump’s nature. Start, Landon says, with something like this: “Remember when Trump said he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue and people would still vote for him? Well, if he would try to shoot somebody in the middle of the street here in South Carolina, we would return fire. And that is what I intend to do today.”

“Don’t attack with anger, just quote the terrible, terrible things he says about specific people and larger groups. It is not right what he says, and on some level most Trump supporters know it. Make fun of his self-importance and self-regard. Take on the Great Pumpkin far away in Mar-a-Lago. Show that he’s out of control, that he has no rails, no boundaries. Quote the past few days’ overnight rants on social media. Let the audience draw the conclusion about whether this man should be returned to the presidency.” Quote his former chiefs of staff and cabinet secretaries who say he has no business in the Oval Office. “Let that settle in.”

More: “Don’t be strident, don’t strain your voice, don’t try too hard. When I was writing for Ronald Reagan, I would give him a sure-fire, tough applause line, and he would often deliver it gently, seeking no applause. And yet it landed, and he looked the stronger, the bigger and the more genial for it. Don’t yell at Trump, be sad for him.”

There's potential, as well, in turning Mr Trump's reality TV schtick against him. Plus more "bless your heart."

Admit you are not as entertaining or maybe exciting as he is, but that’s OK, you’re running not to entertain but to lead. A rabid squirrel in a chemistry lab is exciting to watch but can do a lot of damage. You believe in old-fashioned values like professionalism and capability. “I am here to capably close the border. Wouldn’t that be the real excitement? I’m here to capably force the executive agencies to end their woke, partisan nonsense. Wouldn’t it be exciting if somebody got that done?” “Doing the real job of the presidency so that the American people benefit actually is exciting.” Perhaps one day when she worked for Mr. Trump she saw the blubbery self-pity kick in; perhaps she wanted to shake him by the shoulders and say snap out of it, we have a country to save.

Mr. Trump is currently in a rage cycle and Ms. Haley is likely expecting a new nickname—Tricky Nikki, whatever. But nothing is below Mr. Trump and he may go more off-color than that. Staff can respond, but a reporter will catch Ms. Haley going into an event and demand reaction. Landon suggests, in a confiding tone, “Yes. I heard Stormy Daniels gave him that.”

It's a few more weeks to that primary. We'll probably return to the presidential stakes again in the next week or so, as there is plenty of material other than that to work with.