DOES GET-HOME-ITIS GET LAKE BOATS WRECKED?

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down.

They're known as the gales of November, and they conjure images of hurricane-force winds, towering waves, ice-cold temperatures, and bobbing ships.

Also known as the "witches" of November, they occur between mid-October and mid-December, when storm tracks collide over the Great Lakes, creating unpredictable and violent weather. They've left the bottom of the lakes littered with wrecked ships. Maritime historians estimate they are responsible for roughly half of the shipwrecks.

They've even been immortalized in Gordon Lightfoot's enduringly popular song about the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975. That tragedy claimed the lives of all 29 crew members.

Although we have a National Weather Service, if it didn't exist shipping companies and their insurers might have had reason to create a meteorological office of their own.

Much of the devastation occurred before weather forecasting technology, such as computer models, could predict when storms would strike. In fact, it was Wisconsin’s own U.S. Rep. Halbert E. Paine, a Republican, who introduced a bill in 1869 that led to the creation of the National Weather Service, aimed at improving storm forecasting on the Great Lakes.

But back in the day, these violent fall storms occurred at the end of the shipping season when companies would push to get one last voyage in before winter, said Wayne Lusardi, maritime historian with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources.

It's the changing of the seasons that rouse the Witch of November.

Weather is unpredictable in the fall in the Great Lakes region. It marks a time when warm air pushes northward from the Gulf of Mexico, while cold air moves south from the Arctic.

When these air masses collide, they create drastic changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure over short distances, said Craig Hill, a researcher at the University of Minnesota-Duluth’s Large Lake Observatory.

These conditions can drum up gale-force winds that in turn create large waves, Hill said. The National Weather Service classifies gale-force winds as 39 to 54 miles per hour sustained over time.

Recall, dear reader, that weather is the day-to-day changes in temperature, humidity, and rainfall, which follows seasonal oscillations.  Climate refers to the broader conditions affecting either the patterns, or lack thereof, of the weather.

I wonder whether any of the models of climate change have any projections about the intensity and seasonality of the Witch of November.

Nearly half of all shipwrecks occurred in October and November, when the notorious fall storms move into the region, according to estimates from the database.

The devastation was especially staggering in the mid- to late-1800s, where there was “real carnage on the lakes, where every single November, dozens of vessels lost their crews,” Baillod said.

The highest percentage of shipwrecks occurred in November, accounting for 25%, followed closely by October at nearly 24%, according to the database. The wrecks drop off significantly in December, remaining at around 6% or less before rising again in September.

Wouldn't global warming mean later occurrences of that cold air moving south from the Arctic, or more intermittent occurrences of them, i.e. the notorious polar vortex released by a weaker jet stream?

We refer to the Witch of November because she comes slashing in November, including the notorious White Hurricane.

From Nov. 7 to Nov. 10, 1913, two storm tracks collided over the Great Lakes, one bringing cold air and the other warm, creating a rapid drop in atmospheric pressure. Today it’s what weather forecasters call a “bomb cyclone.”

The storm brought blizzard conditions, sustained hurricane-force winds upwards of 90 miles per hour and towering waves topping 35 feet, catching many ship captains by surprise.

The winds were so strong they even blew out the porthole lights at the Lansing Shoal Lighthouse in northern Lake Michigan, Baillod said.

The storm's rapid onset left little time for vessels to seek shelter or prepare. With whiteout conditions and ice accumulating on ships, navigation was nearly impossible.

The devastation was staggering.

The storm’s ferocity left about forty ships sunk or stranded across all of the lakes, except Lake Ontario. It’s estimated that more than 275 lives were lost.

That's the kind of convergence of storms that today's forecasters, equipped with satellites, lots of observation balloons, and multiple computer models, still have trouble forecasting.  (It looks like no Thanksgiving snow for Cold Spring Shops this year.)

In 1940 the Witch of November came in on Armistice Day.

Lake Michigan bore the full brunt of the southwest gales, causing extensive damage and leaving many vessels grounded. Three freighters sank that day: the Anna C. Minch, William B. Davock and Novadoc. All three now lie south of Pentwater, Michigan.

The Anna C. Minch, a 380-foot steel steamer, broke in two when it was overwhelmed by the storm, taking the lives of all 24 crew members.

In addition, a dozen duck hunters, in those days before transistor radios and short-wave weather stations, froze to death on the upper Mississippi River. 

Edmund Fitzgerald foundered on November 10, 1975, in an intense storm involving one large low pressure system.