THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN FORECASTING.

You don't have to be a weatherman to have doubts about Thanksgiving week snow.  "Why is there uncertainty in our forecast during the middle of the week? Two storm systems are expected to pass over the central US this week. If they merge together, the chance for wintry weather will increase. However, they may not merge, and we may not see any snow at all. Stay up to date on the forecast!"

The link is likely to expire or have revised text later in the week.

Complex adaptive systems tend to do what they d@mn well please, and that includes late-fall weather in the Great Lakes.  Whether Cold Spring Shops will be getting immediate gratification from a new snow-thrower or not does not, by itself, confirm or refute any of the predictions of climate chaos.

That work on the complex dynamics has yet to capture some of the essential elements, including circulation of the oceans.

Moreover, even once the climatologists figure out cause and effect in a dynamical system, they might do well to respect a division of labor in policy making.  "[L]et us unbundle the confirmation of climate change hypotheses from the discussion of policies to reduce human influences thereupon.  Doing so is not as easy as it looks."

We'll take stock of the snow that falls, or not, as well as the outcome of this fall's hurricane season, early in December.