PUT THE DONKS IN ZUGZWANG.

Last Christmas, the outgoing Congress was able to avoid a government shutdown by passing yet another continuing resolution, one that in the way of such things was almost as well stuffed as the Christmas goose.

There is a parliamentary procedure called division of the question that's available here.  Vote on the continuing resolution.  Vote on topping up the emergency funds and the road repair appropriation.  Vote on expanding the vocabulary of inclusive euphemism.  Representative Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky) gets it.  But can he make that happen?

Unfortunately, the House is so divided that even a simpler bill can't get a majority.

The House would retain a Republican majority after January 6 of 2025; the Republicans would gain a majority in the Senate, and  Elon Musk's wonk squad was helping the incoming president find the vote buying earmarks in that resolution.  That led to some simplification of the continuing resolution that ultimately was passed and placed in front of Dementia Joe, rather than his autopen, to sign.

That bundle was still too big.  Incoming president Donald Trump wanted that waiver of the debt ceiling, preferably through his term, and the party that does not hold the presidency wants to have the debt ceiling so as to engage in shutdown theater.  Thus, we're likely to see more blame-mongering in Washington than in all the households dividing child custody on Christmas, with the Democrats blaming Mr Musk and the voters, and the Republicans blaming House Democrats, and the mothers-in-law nagging from the kitchen.  Not that it matters, if the bond traders finally tire of the show.

What passed, in part because the Republicans wanted to be able to appropriate some money and maybe rescind some money, was a shortish continuing resolution, due to expire along with the conference basketball tournaments.

With the deadline approaching, what might be coming is more of the same.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on Wednesday that a stopgap to avert a government shutdown next month is “becoming inevitable” and that it will probably be as “clean” as possible, as both sides have struggled for weeks to strike a full-year funding deal.

Pressed about the prospect of a six-month stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), Johnson said, “It looks as though it is becoming inevitable at this point,” while pointing fingers at Democrats for “placing completely unreasonable conditions on the negotiations.”

“They want us to limit the scope of executive authority,” Johnson said. “They want us to tie the hands of the president. They want to stipulate, for example, how many specific numbers of employees would be required by executive agencies.”

“That’s just totally unprecedented. It’s inappropriate. I think it’s unconstitutional. I think it’d be a violation of separation of powers,” he said.

Congress has until March 14 to pass legislation to keep the government funded or risk a shutdown.

Johnson’s comments come as Democrats have pressed for assurances that a bipartisan funding deal that emerges from talks won’t be undercut by Trump amid his Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) sweeping operation to reshape the federal government.

As spending bills must originate in the House, and the last time I checked, there was a slim Republican majority in the House, what stops the Republicans from rescinding all the funds and asking the Democrats to submit budget requests for negotiation?  That's not the same thing as a continuing resolution, which, as its name suggests, is about continuing to spend money in approximately the same way for the next few months.

“I don’t know if we can get into the CR, if it’s a CR, it probably is as close to a clean CR as possible, because that’s the most reasonable thing to do to ensure that the government is not shut down,” Johnson said on the matter on Wednesday.

“But we will be looking to codify the DOGE savings, and it certainly will be part of reconciliation and with the rest of our agenda going forward.”

That noted, the shutdown theater is depressingly frequently cover for the political class continuing to fleece taxpayers.  Red State's Joe Cunningham fears the same thing.

Congress is once again at a crossroads on government spending, with Republicans pushing forward a continuing resolution (CR) out of the House that extends current funding levels through September. Predictably, the hardline fiscal conservatives aren’t happy.

And honestly? I get it.

For years, we’ve been told, “Just wait until we have the majority. Then we’ll make the real cuts.” And now that Republicans are in control, the first major spending move keeps the status quo intact. No drastic reductions, no immediate cuts—just a resolution that extends current spending, with only minor adjustments. That’s a tough pill to swallow for conservatives who have been waiting for a hardline stance on spending.

That's where putting the Donks in Zugzwang comes in.

The most important strategic piece of this CR is that it doesn’t allow new government programs to be created. While spending remains flat, this means no new wasteful projects, no expanded bureaucracies, and no new footholds for Democrats to grow government even further.

At the same time, the continuing resolution clears the way for budget reconciliation, where actual spending cuts can be codified into law.

And that’s the key here. Instead of rushing into a shutdown fight—which would immediately be blamed on Republicans—the strategy is to hold the line for now and then pass spending cuts through reconciliation, making them far harder to reverse later.

And let’s be clear: Democrats are panicking over this approach.

They know that once cuts (especially the ones being pushed by the Department of Government Efficiency, or "DOGE") are written into law, they become significantly more difficult to undo.

Count me as among the skeptical, as the twelve or so regular order appropriations for each operating department of the federal government are so last century.  Mr Cunningham advocates that we trust the process.

If you’re a hardline fiscal conservative, you’re tired of the Charlie Brown and the football routine when it comes to government spending. The frustration is real.

But if Republicans stick to the plan, if they pass meaningful cuts in budget reconciliation, this strategy will have been worth it. The CR is not the victory—but it sets up the real battle that actually matters.

Now, if Congress fails to follow through on the spending cuts, if reconciliation becomes yet another excuse to kick the can down the road, then the anger from fiscal conservatives will be justified. There won’t be any more room for excuses.

For now, though, this is the right move. Pass the CR, block new spending, and then get serious about cutting what’s already there. Because the moment for fiscal conservatives to prove they can govern responsibly is here. And there won’t be another excuse if they fail.

One of these times, if Congress fails to follow through, the real debt ceiling will crash in at the next Treasury auction.

But perhaps House Republican leadership are creating the Zugzwang.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and GOP appropriators crafted the short-term solution spending patch, with Trump’s endorsement, to keep the government’s lights on through Sept. 30.

Since the GOP first retook control of the House of Representatives in January 2023, Republicans have not been able to pass a CR without Democratic support.

“Here’s the bottom line,” Johnson said in a Tuesday press conference. “If Congressional Democrats refuse to support this clean CR, they will be responsible for every troop who misses a paycheck, for every flight delay from reduced staffing at TSA, and for every negative consequence that comes from shutting down the government.”

The House resolution runs out with the 2025 fiscal year, giving the House nine months to come up with regular order appropriations, or, failing that, legislation that satisfies the criteria for reconciliation.  It continues the funding levels worked out by the past Congress with public comment organized on social media and whoever was minding Dementia Joe that week.

The vice-president used a football metaphor, but the Zugzwang comes at the end.

Vice President JD Vance blamed Johnson’s predecessor for having cut “a bad deal” amid that fracas, which resulted in passage of the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act to raise the nation’s debt limit, during a closed-door meeting with House Republicans on Tuesday morning, a source familiar with the discussion told The Post.

Vance also urged GOP lawmakers in the lower chamber to “jam” the Senate with the funding bill, forcing Democrats into taking a tough vote, the source added — while emphasizing that keeping funding levels flat from the previous year will be a de facto cut to spending.

Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) characterized Vance’s message to The Post as “get the first down, keep the ball, keep moving the ball up the field,” following the private session.

If moderate Senate Democrats don’t back the CR, Meuser added, then they’ll “shut down the government.”

House leadership would like members of the Republican caucus to submit their requests between now and when the new fiscal year begins.  If Senate Democrats want to impede that, they have a problem.  "The dilemma facing Democrats is that many see the government shutdown fight as their last major opportunity to extract concessions from Republicans until the appropriations process in September."  Let's see: the party of "Give us more government or People Will Die" can prevent the government from being funded through the end of September in grand defiance of a president whose attitude might be "every day those government functions aren't provided is a day we're spending less money."  At least one anonymous source gets it.

The Republicans need eight Democratic senators to vote for the CR to pass it because of the 60-vote filibuster rule. After their caucus meeting on Tuesday, some Democrats want to fold their cards while others haven't made up their minds.

“The conversation today was divided. I can’t say we have a strategy,” said a Democratic senator who requested anonymity to comment on the internal deliberations. “There are a lot of people who haven’t made a decision.”

On the other hand, there appear to be a number of Democrats who fear what Musk would do with a shutdown.

“The CR is a terrible bill… but a shutdown has terrible consequences,” the source added. “Elon Musk is trying to shut down the government. If we shut down the government, it takes the blame away from him, and it puts the blame on us for chaos and confusion.”

The Donks' leader in the Senate, Charles "Please don't squeeze the Charmin" Schumer hopes to buy time by substituting a thirty day continuing resolution.

Democrats emerged from a long lunch meeting Wednesday determined to get a vote on a 30-day CR.

“We definitely need a vote on a 30-day,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said after meeting with Senate Democratic colleagues about the strategy for avoiding a government shutdown at week’s end.

He said that would “give us time to do what Senate Republicans have told us they want to do, which is an appropriations bill.”

“We have a clear alternative ready to go,” he said. “This is my read as of right now, the votes are not there to proceed on their one-sided, Republican-only bill.”

Not that there are any Republican votes for a resolution crafted by the Democrats, nor, with the House in recess once their resolution passed, is there a path for that resolution to be considered in the Senate, let alone the House.

Erick Erickson probably has the popcorn popped.

If you think you’re having a bad day, you could always be a Senate Democrat. After Magic Mike Johnson magically passed a continuing resolution through the evenly divided House, Senate Democrats are left in an impossible position: Vote for a continuing resolution that cuts $13 billion from non-defense spending… or shut the government down and let my friend, OMB Director Russ Vought, be in charge.

That’s right, if the government is shut down, the most hated man in leftwing circles and the face of Project 2025 will directly manage the government shutdown.

I am begging Senate Democrats… fight the Republicans, filibuster the legislation, and shut the government down!!

Let's see what Thursday and Friday bring.