COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS, DOING WHAT THEY D**N WELL PLEASE.

In mid-August, "If you don't like the weather, wait" proved to be logical advice.  "The Old Farmer's Almanac forecast is out, and the Great Lakes summary might be 'expect anything."  "The almanac forecast predicts the northern Plains and Upper Midwest could be drier at times, 'especially when the southern storm track becomes dominant.' Still, intense cold, wind and snow are possible, with clippers, sudden cold snaps and snowy periods likely.'"  So, too, with the northern hemisphere's hurricane season, which is defying all the expectations.

Saith the reporters, "Hurricane season is broken. Two oceans are historically out of whack."  How so?

The 2026 hurricane season has been remarkable, from the potentially record-breaking calm in the Atlantic Ocean to the hyperactive eastern and central Pacific Ocean.

Only seven tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic, while 18 tropical storms and hurricanes have formed in the Pacific. In a normal year, the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific hurricane basins see similar activity, with 14 to 15 named storms, including seven to eight hurricanes by the time the season ends on Nov. 30. This year, the Atlantic hasn't yet produced a single hurricane, while the eastern Pacific has already produced eight.

What's interesting about this season is that a few of the storms that have occurred in the two basins originated in Africa and were influenced by the same powerful climate phenomenon, El Niño. But the results have been very different, with fierce hurricanes in the Pacific and unremarkable tropical storms in the Atlantic.

Maybe it's time to look more carefully at the observations and recalibrate those extrapolation models, which are excessively sparse anyway.

We know tropical hurricanes form in the doldrums, and they might be influenced by Pacific currents and Ethiopian dust.  Sub-tropical cyclones, and, under some circumstances, former tropical cyclones, become nor'easters, and the reporters generate more ratings by carrying on about how such storms, even without snow, disrupt the end of the baseball season and air and rail movements all up and down the east coast.  "Nor'easter to ease its waves, rain and wind in the Northeast on Monday."  There's no Alberta clipper coming east from the Great Lakes to create another perfect storm, and it's on to the next shiny object:  "Category 5 Hurricane Polo is 'one of the strongest storms ever'."  So strong, apparently, that its meanderings off the Californian coast and inland might be contributing moisture to the next rain event, toward the end of the week, in the State Line.  Somehow, though, a Pacific current has an effect on Atlantic tropical cyclones.  "No Atlantic hurricanes have formed yet this year, and this year has set a record for the longest start to a season without a hurricane. The effects of this year's El Niño crush storms before they get going."

A chilly Hallowe'en?  Perhaps.  "Map Shows US States Bracing for First Widespread Freeze of the Season."

Fall is just getting started, and a new NOAA map shows where the season's first widespread frost and freeze could arrive in early October.

The Climate Prediction Center's latest U.S. Hazards Outlook highlights the northern and central Great Plains, western Corn Belt and Upper Midwest for a possible frost and freeze as colder air pushes into the central United States.

I'm not sure what sort of pin to put in that, or if it's even worth thinking about doing so.  Let the complex adaptive systems do what they do, and I'll take the events as they come.