THE GAS PUMP PAIN ARISES MAINLY IN UKRAINE?

The Establishment's Narrative^(TM) on higher summer gasoline prices is "It's All Trump's Fault."  These are the same fear-mongers who were sounding off about crude oil prices north of $175 per barrel in the aftermath of rogue Iranian elements attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The good news is that the worst news might be wrong.  "Energy shock: why oil and gas prices have risen less than expected."  That's the work of analysts at the European Central Bank.  "Most notably, although the disruptions to global oil and gas supplies have been considerably larger during the Iran conflict, the resulting price increases have so far been comparatively muted."  To an extent, that article argues, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine got energy traders thinking about work-arounds.  Should those rogue Iranian dead-enders be driven off, future crude oil prices might be much lower.

Conversely, a sustained reopening of the Strait could exert significant downward pressure on prices, particularly as oil and gas markets entered 2026 with expectations of sizeable supply surpluses. These expectations may have strengthened further, as the Iran conflict could encourage consumers to transition more rapidly towards alternative, more reliable energy sources, reducing their reliance on oil and gas.

I'm not sure wat a "sustained reopening" of the strait looks like, but it appears that — talk of low morale in the Navy notwithstanding, — the small ship Navy is slowly getting the better of the mullahs' powerboats.

Since early May, U.S. military escorts have enabled tankers to move more than 660 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz, Central Command told CNBC this week, with around 1,300 commercial vessels receiving assistance over that span.

U.S. Navy Captain Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesperson, said in a statement Thursday that "multiple routes remain free and open for commercial transit." Taken together with the July 29 figure, the updated total implies that over 160 million barrels — a rate exceeding 7 million barrels per day — cleared the strait in the most recent three-week stretch. A July 29 statement from the military put the cumulative total at 500 million barrels assisted through Hormuz since May.

Even so, the throughput remains a fraction of what the strait handled before the conflict, a period when the combined flow of crude and petroleum products reached around 20 million barrels per day. U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday that about 10 million barrels per day have exited the strait in recent weeks. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Aug. 11 that the seven-day average had risen to nearly 9 million barrels per day.

Before EPIC FURY commenced, much of that cargo was Iranian oil on its way to China or to whoever was laundering it for sale elsewhere.  I must look for historical records on how many millions of those twenty million barrels a day were the mullahs' barrels.  And China are seeking other sources of oil (it's Friday, don't get me going on the Northern Resource Area).  "Offers of Iranian crude to Chinese buyers have declined and prices have jumped this week as the U.S. blockade has cut Tehran's shipments, according to trade sources, with the threat of more sanctions from Washington looming."

That's not to say everything will work out in the end.  The stealthy convoy system, combined with a few Ultra Large Crude Carriers serving as shuttles between Arabian Gulf ports and Very Large Crude Carriers on the safe side of the Navy's blockade, combined with aggressive use of pipelines, might be making the Gulf Arab countries whole.  Whether the mullahs will accordingly lash out, they could call it Operation Samson, remains to be seen.  Similarly, whether Tsar Vladimir will lash out also remains to be seen.  To repeat, don't get me going on the Northern Resource Area.