DO GUARANTEES INCLUDE A RISK PREMIUM?

USA Today investigates the "gig economy" that is the guarantee games early in the college football season.  " In at least 45 instances this season, [a power conference member] will pay at least $1 million to a lower-scale opponent while aiming to fill vast stadiums and — at least theoretically — get an impressive victory with minimal risk of defeat." The guarantee economy reflects a football team ranking algorithm that includes components such as overall record, margin of victory, and strength of schedule, and it's a way for starveling programs to supplement their meager gate receipts.  I've expressed reservations about the enterprise, as it long strikes me that the opportunity for the mid-major recruits to play on a big stage don't compensate for the magnitude of the loss and the risk of injury.

There's more at work if the mid-major team has a realistic shot of winning the game.  "[S]trong mid-major teams have trouble scheduling these early games because the hosting team can't be sure their guarantee buys them a big win to embellish those poll rankings." On the other hand, the stronger the opponent, the stronger the schedule, and thus the better the bowl placement in November, even if the money can't buy the win.  Here's how the investigation puts it.  "Northern Illinois also pulled a lucrative upset last season, getting $820,000 from Nebraska and a win in Lincoln. In addition to that payout, NIU had gotten just over $1 million from Nebraska when a 2016 game between the teams set for Chicago was canceled."  This year, Northern merited a $1 million guarantee from Iowa, and Kent State's guarantee from Illinois exceeded $1 million.

Kent State will collect $3.65 million by playing three of its first four games this season at Illinois, Penn State and Mississippi (its first Mid-American Conference game also is on the road, so Golden Flashes will play one home game in September). Next season, Kent State is set for paydays of $1.9 million from Auburn and $1.5 million from Arizona State. And in 2020, it is due a total of $5 million for games at Arkansas, Kentucky and Alabama.

Whether the Golden Flashes will be able to play all their starters once #MACtion begins on November school nights remains to be seen.  Kent gave Illinois all sorts of trouble over the weekend.  Northern Illinois, not so much.  With additional road guarantee games coming, there might be a difficult fall in store for Huskie Nation.  There will be, however, two Saturday games in DeKalb this September.