12.1.22

HE PUSHED THE WRONG PAWN.

There is a post-mortem on Charger coach Brandon Staley(*) calling that time-out when it appeared the Raiders would have been content to run the clock out, with the tie putting both participants in the playoffs.

First, apparently football coaches lack the subtlety of chess grandmasters, who can offer drawish positions with their opening moves.
Would the Raiders and Chargers agree to tank the game or suffer through a prisoner’s dilemma and try to win?

“We had jokingly discussed, ‘Oh, man, what if we only need a tie?’” said Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson.

A tie in football is so rare (there was just one in 272 games this season) that it’s nearly impossible to arrange without both teams committing to a complete farce. So both played to win.
That, despite the game going to overtime, and being tied after matching field goals.
Yet here they were anyway, tied at 32, in the final minute of overtime, with the clock ticking. Vegas had the ball, third-and-4, on the Chargers' 39-yard line. On the Raiders' sideline, a discussion had occurred about how, if the scenario arose, they might let the clock bleed out and take the tie. Specifically, if they were stopped on third down (they had to run at least one play), would they risk a lengthy, 56-yard-plus field goal that might, due to the trajectory, get blocked? Or, would they just take the tie and head to the playoffs? Sure, they’d have to play Kansas City, rather than Cincinnati, but a wild card is a wild card.

Raiders interim head coach Rich Bisaccia assumed the thought had crossed the Chargers' mind as well when Staley hadn't stopped the clock earlier in the drive. A tie was everyone’s friend, after all.

“Yeah, it was [a] conversation,” Bisaccia said of the tie. “We were talking about it. We ran the ball [on second down] and they didn’t call timeout. So I think they were probably thinking the same thing.”
The Chargers might have called that time out in order to force the draw.
Staley did call timeout, with 38 seconds left, surprising nearly everyone.

The Chargers coach said the timeout was solely about getting the best personnel on the field to stop an expected Vegas run play.

“We needed to get in the right grouping,” Staley said. “We felt they were going to run the ball. We wanted to get our run defense in. [We made] that substitution so we could get a play that would deepen that field goal.”
Only, the coach pushed the wrong pawn.
Except during the timeout, Staley took inside linebacker Kenneth Murray, who had five tackles in the game, off the field. The Chargers wound up with five defenders (rather than the previous four) on the line of scrimmage, but there was just one inside linebacker, Kyzir White, behind it.

That meant safety Nasir Adderley had to slide down into a linebacker-esque spot. While the Raiders were in 11 personnel (which can be versatile since it features three receivers, a tight end and a running back) Staley said he expected the run.

Taking that extra inside linebacker off the field was the mistake. This wasn't an ideal run-stopping package.
Oops.

(*)I trust everybody has noted that "Brandon" has become a name connoting incompetence.  Those of you with long memories will recognize that "Staley" is the original name of a Chicago eleven that sucks.  What's that line about preferring coaches who are lucky to those who are good?

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