THAT BUTTERFLY EFFECT.

On Saturday, Donald Trump turned his head at just the right time.  More than a few people recalled the conclusion of Day of the Jackal.

In Day of the Jackal, the English would-be assassin pulls the trigger and watches with astonishment as his target–Charles DeGaulle–bends over to kiss a la français the veteran he had just decorated in a ceremony in Paris. The bullet whizzes just behind DeGaulle’s head. A kiss spared his life.

Imagine my shock and astonishment at waking up in France to read that a turn of the head may have saved Donald Trump from a would-be assassin. Trump came closer to his doom than the movie DeGaulle–a bullet actually clipped his ear.

Unlike the Jackal, the Trump shooter was clearly no trained killer. Was he trying for a head shot because he thought Trump would be wearing a protective vest? Because a center mass shot was available and would have been a pro’s choice. Or was he just a bad shot? The fact that Matthew Crooks squeezed off 8 rapid shots spray-and-pray fashion suggest that he was. His prayers were not answered. Ours were.

Craig "Streetwise Professor" Pirrong goes on to speculate on the electoral fallout.  There's been a lot of that around the internet lately.  I'll leave the after-action reviews and recriminations to others.  Eyewitnesses are weighing in.  Consider carefully the sources in which many of the stories appear.

It's possible, as Power Line's John Hinderaker speculates, that the hue and cry rally-goers raised about a guy with a gun up on a roof might have been enough to break his concentration, with the spray-and-pray fusillade as a consequence.  We've made some progress in sixty years: a few civilians waiting for President Kennedy's motorcade saw Lee Oswald up in that window, but none of them said anything to Dallas police.

In retrospect, the way in which the Jackal failed verges on a story-telling cop-out.  Charles de Gaulle had to survive, otherwise Frederick Forsyth is writing a Twilight Zone episode.  If there is such a thing as a freelance professional killer, wouldn't his study included at least a rudimentary understanding of the French military protocols that would be followed on Liberation Day?  Recall in the movie, it's obvious; in the book it's hinted at, that there was one certainty, to the Jackal in his planning, and to law enforcement once the sou dropped, about a place the president surely would be and at what time of what day.

In the ongoing investigation, what will the authorities learn about the scouting efforts a resident of a far southern suburb of Pittsburgh made of Trump rally sites in Pennsylvania, including the field outside Butler?  We're not dealing here with a guy who lands a job at a warehouse and subsequently learns a presidential motorcade will pass by.