ALL THE ELEMENTS OF A FOURTH TURNING.

It's Nouriel Roubini, with his usual warnings, but he's sometimes on point.  "Technology-led disinflation will not shelter us from a storm of fast rising prices amid economic slowdowns."  There's more in play, though, than the usual finger pointing.

For starters, we have seen a retreat from globalization and a return to protectionism. This reflects geopolitical factors and domestic political motivations in countries where large cohorts feel ‘left behind’. Geopolitical tensions and the supply snarls are likely to beget greater re-shoring of manufacturing from China and emerging markets to advanced economies, or near-shoring to allied countries. Either way, production will be misallocated to higher-cost regions.

That the administrative apparatus of the self-styled rules-based international order has come up short on pandemic mitigation, on Putin containment, and on having the backstop technologies to fossil fuels in place isn't helping.

Making matters worse, the politics of bashing fossil fuels and demanding aggressive decarbonization has led to underinvestment in carbon-based capacity before renewable energy sources have reached a scale sufficient to compensate for a reduced supply of hydrocarbons. Under such conditions, sharp spikes in energy prices are inevitable. And as the price of energy rises, ‘greenflation’ will likely hit prices for the raw materials used in solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs) and other clean technologies.

Public health is likely to be another factor. Little has been done to avert the next contagious-disease outbreak, and we already know that pandemics disrupt global supply chains and incite protectionist policies as countries rush to hoard critical supplies such as food, pharmaceutical products, and personal protective equipment.

Strap in, and recognize that reality bats last.