FIRST PESTILENCE. NOW WAR. NEXT FAMINE?

Trent Telenko has posted another evaluation of the situation in Ukraine.  "Day Eight of the Russian Column Held Hostage (by the usual Russian incompetence)."  It's worth reading in full.  One observation, about the failure of the motorized infantry to move, stands out.  "Vehicles are combat power in mechanized war."  With the convoys seemingly stalled by partisan action or bogged down in mud, Russia started this campaign with fewer leg infantry than George McClellan's Army of the Potomac, and all that force had to do was march from Washington City to Richmond.  Three years later, it got there.  But where is the second force securing the major rivers?

It's possible at least some of the Russian convoys are stymied by flooded fields.  With planting season coming, it's unlikely the summer wheat crop coming off the steppes will be as plentiful as it can be.  "If the war is prolonged, countries that rely on affordable wheat exports from Ukraine could face shortages starting in July, International Grains Council director Arnaud Petit says."  Those Ukrainian sunflowers?  That, too, is a cash crop.  "Russia and Ukraine combine for nearly one-third of the world’s wheat and barley exports. Ukraine also is a major supplier of corn and the global leader in sunflower oil, used in food processing."

All of this good news coming immediately after the corona shutdowns might have undone a generation's work raising living standards.  "The war could reduce food supplies just when prices are at their highest levels since 2011."