THE CORRELATION OF FORCES IN UKRAINE.

Chicago Boyz contributor Jay Manifold offers a lengthy analysis.  "Trust only reports of failure, not reports of success" has a Friday short take vibe to it.  In addition, those conscripts Russia has been sending to war might not have had as much basic training as the training manuals prescribe. From a school trip through Siberia a few years ago:

[A] platoon of army recruits were riding in the 3rd class cars forward of our much nicer 2nd class accommodations. Some of the students talked with them (we had three fluent Russian speakers in the group, so we were not dependent on hired interpreters) and quickly learned that much of the recruits’ training was skipped over because they were forced to do construction work on an officer’s dacha. I remember hearing that and thinking, if this country gets into a real war, these kids are going to be like straw in a bonfire. Eighteen- and nineteen-year-olds.

There are all sorts of perspectives on offer in the bull session.