23.10.21

A COUNTEREXAMPLE CAN BE A DISPROOF.

College football season is well under way, with the bowl picture emerging.  What has not been emerging are outbreaks of Wuhan coronavirus.
Penn State hosted Auburn on Sept. 18, with 109,958 fans in attendance dressed in white. It was the second largest post-pandemic crowd of any sporting event, meaning it had to be a widespread superspreader, right?

If you take Twitter for real life, you were probably fed this nonsense, but NBC’s Shaquille Brewster is reporting that the large, unmasked crowds have not contributed to a spike in COVID-19 cases. Brewster says that all college football states in the south have reported a decline in cases since the start of the season. That includes Florida, which has seen hospitalizations fall 64% since last month, despite routinely seeing Florida fans pack The Swamp with 90,000 plus for every home game.
Well, no, and when evidence is contrary to priors, shouldn't people be revising their priors?
Brewster said that doctors have contributed [c.q.] (more evidence that voice recognition is flawed? -- Ed.) the decline to three things: open air venues, rise in vaccinations and more natural immunity after the Delta variant swept through younger populations.

With open air venues proving to not be superspreaders, the COVID-19 mob has now turned their attention to the large indoor events that are returning.
We might have a natural experiment unfolding, with the Chicago Bulls playing home games under the continued tyranny of Lori Lightfoot and J. B. Pritzker, while Milwaukee Bucks home games are mostly mask-optional.

We also have college football becoming a rallying point for the populist insurgency.  Laura Ingraham took her show to Mississippi Friday night for some pregaming.  Between university administrators alienating their physical and experimental science departments, the national government treating disaffected parents like domestic terrorists, and big city mayors continuing to be soft on crime, the correlation of forces seems to be tilting against the self-styled progressives.

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