Perhaps the idea was to use the higher prices to induce substitutions. But in order to induce substitutions, there have to be substitutes. "Fossil Fuel Investment Drops, and Renewables Aren’t Ready." That article notes the tar-sand and shale-oil sources freed up by fracking have underachieved financially, and perhaps investors are less prone to put more money into those fields than they used to be. "Oil between $45 and $50 a barrel is considered the break-even point for most shale operators, which means that they need crude prices of at least $45 to balance their operating cash flows with capital expenditure." The exception might be in Texas's Permian Basin, although the nature of active investors is changing. "Oil prices above $80 a barrel are once again spurring a revival of shale drilling in America’s biggest oil field, where production is expected to return to pre-pandemic highs within weeks. Only this time, the surge is being driven by private operators, rather than the publicly traded companies that fueled the previous booms. And they see little reason to slow things down."
The publicly traded companies are proceeding more cautiously, and shoring up their balance sheets. Whether they will resume exploration, or whether the colluding countries of OPEC can keep the crude oil prices above $65, are known unknowns at this writing.
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