Local Passenger Rail advocates did a lot of crowing after a recent
Milwaukee Business Journal article with a misleading headline. "
Amtrak's new Twin Cities-Chicago route through Milwaukee turns a profit in first 11 days." Read the article, and you see an essential word omitted.
The twice-daily Borealis was built as an expansion of the current Empire Builder service which connects Chicago with the Twin Cities on its way to Seattle. Borealis’ 411-mile route takes about 7 hours and 20 minutes, compared with Empire’s nearly 8-hour journey.
The route is sponsored by the states of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois. A federal grant was to provide 90% of the first year operating costs. In its brief history, the St. Paul-to-Chicago route is one of only two Amtrak state-supported routes — out of 30 nationwide — to turn an operating profit this year; revenue for May was $600,000, vs. expenses of $500,000.
Understand "operating profit" as "above the wheels" costs: the fares cover crew salaries, fuel, and if the food service is properly managed, the contribution margin from the dining department is positive. If the train does not require extended operating hours at any staffed stations (that is, where Amtrak or the locals staff the station), that's a phenomenon we ought to expect. It's one of the
strongest arguments for multiple frequencies.
Yes, in an ideal world, the 200 mile markets ought have hourly trains, and the 2000 mile corridors ought to have at least two train pairs, spaced by twelve hours or so, in order that each community with train service has at least one train during business hours, and the possibility of a round trip of a hundred miles or so on the same day. I write "at least," as an East Coast service to Charleston, Savannah, and Florida has all sorts of possibilities for multiple trains, and at Christmas we can wish for the restoration of Chicago to Florida service. In addition, the Passenger Rail operators and the freight railroads ought look for mutually beneficial ways to upgrade both the passenger and freight capacity.
A
Fast Company report
purports to read all sorts of Promising Things into that second frequency.
The Amtrak Borealis, a new rail line connecting Chicago and Minneapolis-St. Paul, has only been operating for about a month, but already thousands of passengers have taken the trip. That ridership has exceeded Amtrak’s expectations—and hints at the growing desire among Americans to travel by train.
Amtrak’s Borealis launched on May 21. In June, the line’s first full month of service, it saw more than 18,500 riders. That averages about 300 passengers a day, in each direction. That’s close to maximum capacity, though because not every passenger rides the full length of the route, Amtrak can sell the same seat multiple times, which makes counting total capacity a bit tricky. Trains are also resizable, so Amtrak could add more capacity over time, if the contracts and equipment availability allow.
That total ridership exceeded Amtrak’s forecasts—which Ray Lang, vice president of Amtrak State Supported Service, says were already “very optimistic”—by 2,900 passengers. “What that really means,” he adds, “is that there’s a strong demand for short-distance corridor trains in the United States to provide that transportation option for travelers that don’t want to drive or fly.”
There are opportunities for further research here. A return of a second train to the Cities has long been on Passenger Rail advocates' wish list, and
an observation I made six years ago is germane to that research. "That works out to about 225 passengers on each train, or three Horizon coaches and a business class car apart from peak season. The skeptics are likely to be out in force. It doesn't help any that the "corridor" relies on an
overpurposed Empire Builder subject to delay." The
Borealis as operating these days is four Horizon coaches and an Amcafe with business class seating on one end, and it might be that passengers are
opting for dependability keeping those four coaches full.
The figures do not indicate how much of the traffic is between Chicago and Milwaukee — the Borealis operates in place of one of the prior Hiawatha round trips on that portion — and how much is on the newly served Milwaukee-St. Paul segment. Eastbound ridership may occasionally be bolstered by passengers accommodated on the new train instead of a late-running Empire Builder. That could well be the case today (July 8), when the Borealis’ on-time 11:50 a.m. departure put it at least 90 minutes ahead of the eastbound Builder, projected to be almost 5 hours behind its scheduled 8:50 a.m. departure because of “earlier track maintenance and mechanical issues,” according to Amtrak’s website.
For what it's worth, Amtrak have shown the westbound
Borealis sold out at Chicago the last two times I have shopped for Milwaukee round trips. For further expansion of the corridor,
my suggestions for the Twin Cities service, as principles for any other Regional Rail service, stay the same.
Once upon a time, Burlington served the same end cities with two Zephyr sets, quickly turning the arriving Morning Zephyr as the leaving Afternoon Zephyr, although in later years a combination of federal speed limits and less sharp operating ended that practice. The Milwaukee Road had a tradition of good timekeeping that has continued on Canadian Pacific, although there were four Skytop Lounges and four Super Domes assigned to the Twin Cities Hiawathas as each train set was turned overnight.
With Canadian Pacific seeming to be poised to acquire Kansas City Southern and its lines into Mexico, though, there is the possibility, if the professionals get their act together, to use some of that infrastructure money to restore that second track in places through Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as to upgrade the existing track and restoring free rein to 110.
Additional frequencies on any corridor, if the contracting freight railroads go along with it, reduce the fully-allocated-cost burden on each train, and they have the potential, provided the stock arrives dependably, to improve the utilization of the rolling stock. The current
Borealis schedules have actually worsened utilization on the Wisconsin services.
I repeat an impression from the early days of the new service.
With Amtrak having trouble assigning sufficient serviceable stock to protect its existing schedule, sooner or later somebody is going to take a close look at the Hiawatha and Borealis diagrams. I had an opportunity to watch the turnarounds in Chicago on the second and third days of service. Wednesday last week, the stock that arrived, about an hour late, on 1340 from St. Paul went out, about twenty minutes late, on the final Hiawatha to Milwaukee. Thursday, 1340 arrived again about an hour late, and a different rake went to Milwaukee, about twenty minutes late. I have not yet worked out the rotations by which stock for 336, which used to turn off 333 before 333 became 1333 for St. Paul, lays over in Milwaukee. The enforced idleness of an entire rake in St. Paul, overnight, when there's plenty of time to add a sleeping car and run an overnight train for and from Chicago, also offers food for future thought.
That
third frequency between Chicago and the Cities makes sense, and if Minnesotans start looking at what Great Northern and Northern Pacific
once offered to Fargo, Grand Forks, and Winnipeg, the same principles of frequency and dependability might yield that operating profit. Sometime Power Line contributor John Phelan raises points about restoring train service to Duluth that, while being negative toward the trains,
reinforce the value of frequency and dependability.
The report showed that 6,600 passengers used the Borealis over those 11 days in May, so it had 600 riders daily. Operating Revenue was $600,000 over that period and Operating Expenses were $500,000 so Adjusted Operating Earnings — profit, if you like — was $100,000. The Wisconsin Association of Railroad Passengers reports daily ridership numbers for June of 618, with 330 going west and 288 going east.
It has been suggested that this data make the case for further trains running the route.
This only makes sense, however, if the extra service will generate extra travelers rather than simply shifting them from existing services. What has happened to ridership on the Empire Builder (St. Paul to Chicago) or the Hiawatha Service (Milwaukee to Chicago) on the stretches now served by the Borealis? More data is needed.
Others have suggested that this data make the case for building the Northern Lights Express, the proposed passenger train service between Minneapolis and Duluth.
This is simply absurd. There is a massive difference in the viability of a passenger train service running between the 3rd and 15th largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States by Gross Domestic Product — Chicago and Minneapolis/St. Paul — and one running between the 15th and 184th largest — Minneapolis/St. Paul and Duluth.
The Amtrak numbers show this. Out of 30 Amtrak-state supported routes nationwide, the Borealis was one of only two which turned an operating profit.
Very few of the state-supported routes offer multiple frequencies, and those heavier loadings eastbound than westbound are intriguing. Wouldn't you expect to see more substitutions away from eastbound
Builders that have all of the High Plains to lose time covering? But the logic of adding frequencies on already served routes argues for additional trains to the Cities or into the Red River Valley before a single train is added for the Twin Ports.