LET'S TAKE A TRAIN RIDE.

Yahoo creators Kara and Nate rode the Lake Shore Limited and Empire Builder from New York to Seattle.  The verdict?

Despite the flaws we may have noticed during our cross-country train journey, we would definitely recommend that you try out one of the long-distance Amtrak trips if you ever get the opportunity. One of our biggest concerns with a train trip this long was that we would get bored and have nothing to do but the views along the way were genuinely so stunning that we never had the opportunity to feel bored.

They made a video.

On both legs of the trip, they noted a lot of duct tape to keep stuff from rattling. The cars on both trains are fortyish.  As sleeping car passengers, they had meals in the dining car, which have been upgraded from those Noodles and Company boxes I've groused about. The showers work.

We tried out the shower in this compartment and would rate it a solid 8/10. On other train showers (oddly, we’ve tried out so many train showers now that we can consider ourselves train shower experts) it’s common to run out of hot water quickly or have to push a button every minute to keep the water going. We did not have a problem with either of these things this time around!

Every once in a while we were granted ‘fresh air breaks’ as we stopped at various stations to get out and stretch our legs. The rest of the daylight hours were split between the dining car and the observation car.

Washington Post contributor and illustrator Christine Mi rode the California Zephyr and Lake Shore from Oakland to New York City. The illustrations that go with the article tell a lot of the story, including the joys of attempting yoga in a Superliner roomette and the people-watching along the Colorado River.  If you want to understand the mood of the country, riding a train and eavesdropping on conversations is still the thing to do.  East of Chicago, she opted for a coach seat, and that's a different experience.

Most train enthusiasts will recommend traveling across the country from east to west. I quickly understood why. Taking the California Zephyr before the Lake Shore Limited was like eating a scrumptious dessert before a much blander dinner.

I boarded the train at night and immediately tried to get some shut-eye. As it turns out, a coach seat is not very conducive to sleep. It is, however, quite conducive to overhearing your neighbor’s conversations … at all hours of the night.

The communal experience on planes, trains, and (when you can find one) intercity buses probably sells a lot of motor vehicles.

In neither travelogue did anything about train speed or Chinese trains or European trains come up.  Go long distance for the experience, and the opportunity to switch off and interact with people who might know nothing at all about where you worked or the sort of things we fret about and who have their own stories to tell.

FRIDAY short TAKES.

Well, that debate happened.  "Kamala reminded me of my ex-wife and I was never married before. Men are not going to want to endure four years of her schoolmarmy condescension."

First, let us cheer another Boneyard Win, and another visit from Big Boy.

The weekly round-up of pithy elaborations on traditional Cold Spring Shops themes follows.

BURYING THE LEDE.

Common Dreams contributor Yves Engler is not surprised by how quickly stories of Haitian refugees eating Daffy, Fido, and Fluffy caught on among les Deplorables.  You have to read well into his essay, though, to see the condescension inherent in the establishmentarians.

It’s easy to mock those who claim Haitian immigrants are eating cats. But overt anti-Haitianism is also relayed by ‘sophisticated’ liberals. Their high-minded commentaries calling for foreign tutelage of the country appear regularly in the pages of the Globe and Mail and Boston Globe.

Anti-Haitianism flows out of and reinforces the country’s weakness, which is spurred by imperial domination. Technically “independent” for more than two centuries, outsiders have long shaped Haitian affairs. Through isolation, economic asphyxiation, debt dependence, gunboat diplomacy, occupation, foreign supported dictatorships, structural adjustment programs, “democracy promotion”, coups and rigged elections, Haiti is no stranger to the various forms of foreign political manipulation.

Indeed not. Can you say Clinton Foundation?  There's likely some overlap between that sort of "high minded" liberals and the folks who ran a color revolution in Ukraine during the Obama years, which hasn't been turning out so well, and the continuing Trump insurgency in the current presidential cycle might have some roots in those same Obama folks running the same sort of information operation against the Trump presidency for going on nine years now.

At the same time, his column cautions against the excesses of revolutionary zeal.

The 1791-1804 Haitian Revolution was simultaneously a struggle against slavery, colonialism, and white supremacy. Defeating the French, British, and Spanish empires, it led to freedom for all people regardless of color, decades before this idea found traction in Europe or North America. The Haitian revolt rippled through the region and compelled the post-French Revolution government in Paris to abolish slavery in its Caribbean colonies. It also spurred London’s 1807 Act for the Abolition of the Slave Trade.

The Haitian Revolution led to the world’s first and only successful large-scale slave revolution. “Arguably,” notes Peter Hallward, “there is no single event in the whole of modern history whose implications were more threatening to the dominant global order of things.”

But, in the aftermath of the Haitian Revolution thousands of photos, articles and books denigrated Haiti, depicting the slaves as barbaric despite the fact 350,000 Africans were killed, versus 75,000 Europeans, over the 13-year revolt. Anti-Haitianism has deep roots.

So it always seems to be.  Those dead Africans during the revolution?  Score settling, perhaps.  Jacobins and Girondins would understand, likewise Stalinists and Trotskyites.

That noted, when you build a shining city on a hill, whether it's Cincinnati or Springfield, people are going to want to come to it.  They'll bring their own ways, whether Sunday picnics with beer or animistic worship services, and yet they'll bring their skills.  Assimilation is a two way street.  "I've long been of the view that there are Pareto improvements possible between immigrants and their new country.  'Give new arrivals an America to buy into, and an America that buys into the new arrivals, and we'll be OK.'"

COLLEGES, RATED.

The Heritage Foundation have released rankings, attempting in their compilation to pursue several objectives.

Universities should promote freedom, opportunity, and upward mobility, fostering free expression and open academic inquiry. They should be intellectually rigorous and provide students with a solid return on investment. American colleges and universities should reclaim their place as the most renowned academic institutions in the world. This site highlights colleges and universities that exemplify these goals along with those institutions that need to reorient themselves toward academic excellence, free expression, and ideological balance.

I'm not sure what "return on investment" refers to: is that starting salaries or being able to confidently respond when someone else is talking rot?  So I have long maintained.

I'm quite clear on what the role of a university ought to be.  "Universities best serve their students through rigorous development of reasoning skills and respect for what we have learned."  That's based on Richard "Underground Grammarian" Mitchell.  "And that’s what a university is, if it is a university, and not a jumped-up trade school, or a conditioning station for docile citizens, or a pulpit of ideology. It is a place devoted to the study and preservation and nurture of whatever human wisdom can be found that pertains to everybody who lives, or has lived, or ever will live, on Earth."

Of late, though, the spineless careerists in charge of higher education have behaved as if they most feared the professional protest communities in their midst.  Little did I recognize, when I wrote, only a month ago, that donors could close their checkbooks, how quickly that would become a preference cascade.  "The cynic in me wonders, particularly those who hold legitimate alternative views and write large checks to Harvard Med or the local university foundation?"

Speaking of spineless careerists, note the criteria by which a university earns a yellow, "approach with caution" rating.

These universities and colleges represent a strong choice for families prioritizing freedom, opportunity, civil society, and opportunity. Although these institutions on the whole may not be as strong of a choice for conservative students as Great Option schools, these institutions are distinguished by their robust programs and centers that foster rigorous academic study, the pursuit of truth, and a shared commitment to preparing students for informed citizenship in a free society. These include programs designated by the American Council of Trustees and Alumni as “Hidden Gems” or “Oases of Excellence,” or are home to a Jack Miller Center Partner Program.

That is, one talking shop for the populist right endorses the efforts of another talking shop for the populist right.  Job placement doesn't come up.

Contrast that with the universities earning a red, "don't go there" rating.

These universities exhibit a pervasive hostility toward diverse viewpoints and lack robust core curricular requirements, undermining a well-rounded education. These institutions are often heavily influenced by ideologically driven administration agendas and DEI bureaucracies, frequently resulting in limitations on freedom of expression. Moreover, these universities typically demonstrate weak returns on investment, evidenced by lower graduation rates and diminished post-graduation income, making them less favorable choices for students seeking both intellectual rigor and long-term success.

Which of the two elements, the diversity bureaucracy, which might be commingled with the access-assessment-remediation-retention mindset that might be tanking the academics, or the job market outcomes, contributes most to the rating?  Could one impound graduate employment outcomes in ceteris paribus and find otherwise identical universities, with the red one lacking one of those Miller Center programs whilst the yellow one has such a program?

It's useful to have information beyond what U.S. News provide, and the Heritage information might contribute a bit at the margin, as might The Washington Monthly's efforts.  As ever, Ronald Reagan had the right idea. доверяй, но проверяй.

For what it's worth, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan got the red light, while Notre Dame and Wisconsin got the yellow.

KUDOS.

Huskies accrue numerous accolades following Notre Dame win.  Good going, kids.

That's all for today, I'm going to open a box of Cheez-Its.  Maybe drink a toast to Lou Groza.

CHOOSE THE FORM OF YOUR GRIDLOCK.

Outside the Beltway's Steven Taylor might be questioning the cult of the presidency.  "At any rate, the notion that complex policy issues can be summarized effectively in two-minute blocks is absurd and always has been."  I suppose when a presidential candidate offers An Agenda it is for the same reason that an economist offers An Interest Rate Forecast: it is because people expect him to do so.  I thought that was a Ken Galbraith witticism, couldn't verify it, but his "make astrology look respectable" will serve.

He's a political scientist, and there's something in the mind-set of political scientists that they want governments to accomplish something, and it is to the absence of accomplishment that he turns.

Indeed, save for general outlines, campaigns aren’t as much about complex policy discussions as I would like to be the case.

It is as if we reduce done general policy directions to two groups that have symbols and labels and choose one.

Also: given the US system of separated powers and the various exigencies of US bicameral, a president really doesn’t know what exact policy agenda they can pursue until all the pieces are in place post-election and even then, they only have two years before a likely reset of those conditions.

If we want a system wherein a party leader can campaign on specific policy goals that they likely can implement, we need to change to a parliamentary system.

The debate last night was not about detailed policy disagreements and never was going to be. It was about trying to show the public the leadership options at their disposal and hitting on mostly general policy preferences along the way.

I'm an econ guy, even in retirement, and I've long been skeptical about "complex policy discussions" and about getting stuff done.  "I'll leave it to political scientists to parse the relative merits of divided governments, U.S. style, that might not be able to accomplish much when gridlock prevails, or unified governments, Canadian-style, that can reverse course when a new coalition takes place. But isn't a strengthening executive the outcome of a default position among opinion leaders that Expertise. Is. Best?"  I propose to modify the fourth paragraph as "If we want a system wherein a party leader can campaign on specific policy goals that he likely can implement, he's got to build big majorities in Congress."  That hasn't happened since Lyndon Johnson got a friendly House and Senate and civil-rights minded Republicans to go along, which is to say, there was a lot of agreement on what the national government ought to be doing.

The same sort of challenge happens with parliamentary governments.  Governing coalitions happen because no one party is able to build that sort of majority, and as soon as a member of the coalition chokes on the compromises, you start over.  There was wisdom in Ronald Reagan saying government is the problem.  It's not that governments are dangerous per se, it is that asking more of it than it is capable leads to, well, the kind of discontent that has Donald Trump in a position to be sworn in as president again.

MAYOR BROWN, YOU'VE GOT A LOVELY DAUGHTER.

Somebody leaked portfolio pictures from her job application with Victoria's Secret.

Oh, sorry, those are candids her publicists on ABC's payroll made available from Tuesday's presidential debate.  The fluffery continues from coastal journalists.  "She turned to him with an arched brow. A quiet sigh. A hand on her chin. A laugh. A pitying glance. A dismissive shake of her head."  No, seriously, that's not stage directions from some cheesy Hallmark movie.

KAMALA HARRIS'S TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMICS.

Cynical Me had my doubts about Build Back Better, back when Dementia Joe's dementia was still a state secret.  "I'll let somebody else tackle the symbolism of subsidized trickle down good (anybody else remember Teflon and Tang) while commercial trickle down is bad, if it even exists.  In simpler terms, those chips, search engines, and circuit boards are contemporary equivalents to Falk's gears or Harnischfeger cranes or Bucyrus-Erie power shovels."  Earlier this year, while Old Joe was running unopposed in Democratic primaries, I continued to be skeptical.

Silly me.  I thought the worst thing that could happen with industrial policy was the government throwing money at losers.  "Dementia Joe is throwing money at information technology. That should bloom wherever it's planted, right?"

Sorry, no.  In last week's rant, he claimed that benefits were going to trickle down to the towns full of creatives.  "Well instead of having to import semiconductor chips, which America invented I might add, private companies are now investing billions of dollars to build new chip factories here in America!"

Alas, those investments are nowhere near as big as Dementia Joe would like.

Reason's Jack Salmon has gone beyond tackling the symbolism to running the numbers.

As the presidential race enters its final weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris is positioning herself as the champion of middle-class America, vowing to finally make the wealthy pay their fair share. Yet a closer look at her record over the past four years reveals a stark contrast between her rhetoric and reality. Far from soaking the rich, Harris' policies have funneled resources to the wealthy and corporations while burdening middle-class taxpayers.

Corporate subsidies have exploded under the Biden-Harris administration. In 2021, the 10-year budget allocation for corporate subsidies was $1.2 trillion. Three years later, it has now surpassed $2 trillion.

Well, of course they did. "Industrial policy" is just another name for rent seekers wetting their beaks.

The 2022 CHIPS and Science Act included $54 billion in corporate subsidies—Intel alone received almost $20 billion in grants and loans through the CHIPS Act. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) uncapped a slew of energy subsidies, massively expanding energy production and investment tax credits, and according to the Brookings Institution, will cost an estimated $780 billion, just in corporate welfare, by 2031.

The beneficiaries of this largesse are extremely concentrated. Three-quarters of the benefits of the IRA are shared by just 15 large corporations, seven of which are foreign. Wind turbine manufacturers like General Electric, Vestas, and Siemens/Gamesa—who collectively produce 79 percent of all turbines—are among the biggest winners. These companies also have a presence on the board of the wind energy lobby, the American Clean Power Association.

But it isn't just the corporate welfare. The IRA's consumer subsidies also disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Roughly half of the tax subsidies for electric vehicles are largely captured by big corporations (Tesla, Ford Motor Co., General Motors), while almost four-fifths of taxpayers claiming these credits earn over $100,000 a year.

And now the Democrats hope to foster the creation of inefficient small businesses with those "opportunity loans" the vice president touted in last night's debate.  Well, every other upscale constituency gets a slab of pork, why not?

This administration has consistently pushed policies that favor higher-income Americans over lower- and middle-income Americans. The extended pause on student loan payments, which lasted until late 2022, primarily aided graduates who are lawyers and physicians—who make an average salary of $176,000 and $264,000, respectively—while being paid for by taxpayers, many of whom chose not to go to college.

For over two years now, the Biden-Harris administration has attempted, often unconstitutionally, to forgive $10,000 in student loan debt for some of the country's wealthiest workers. According to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study, the larger the loan forgiveness, the more likely the beneficiaries will be white and wealthy. This is hardly a progressive policy.

So it goes among the Anointed. Self-congratulation crowds out substance. "Despite Harris' rhetoric of fighting for the middle class, her policies have disproportionately benefited the wealthy and large corporations while leaving middle- and lower-income Americans behind. Far from soaking the rich, Harris' legacy has been one of feeding them."

Under those circumstances, it is not much of a surprise that the uncommitted voters align with the Republicans.  A coalition of high tech barons and venture capitalists with welfare recipients does not strike me as stable.

JUST KICK THE FIELD GOAL.

If you're playing a game in South Bend, you might as well expect difficult ball spots to be resolved in Notre Dame's favor, as well as the operation of the game clock to be hinky.  Yes, I have receipts, and I'll get to that anon.  You take care of business.

In like manner, if you're seeking national office, you might as well expect the reporters to have the sentimentalities of college sophomores, and that difficult propositions will be resolved in the Permanent Government's favor.  If you're Donald Trump, you let Kamala Harris goad you into pitchman mode.

TODAY IN FIRST WORLD PROBLEMS.

Used to be parents might make a piggy-bank for their kids by making a slot in a used canning jar lid with hand tools on hand, or perhaps taught their spawn how to make a clean cut under adult supervision.

These days, that work has been outsourced.

I suppose that puts a new twist on "save big money at Menards!"

THERE ISN'T ENOUGH POPCORN.

Tonight will come the presidential debate, with the spinning to follow.  I'm already in the mood for strong drink, and as a starter let's have some fun with Common Dreams contributor Robert Koehler, disillusioned with the Donks' convention in Chicago attempting to appeal to Normals.  "The message I hear is this: Democrats are as patriotic as Republicans! Democrats are as religious as Republicans! We can put on a good show too!"

LET'S DISTRACT THE GROUNDLINGS WITH A FLAG REDESIGN.

Last year it was Tim "Blue Falcon" Walz in Minnesota conducting such a contest, the semifinalists of which, according to Mitch "Shot in the Dark" Berg were "from IKEA, and appear to have been designed to work as button icons on Android phones," and he was being polite.  "Yes, when one of the semi-finalists looks like more than a nod to the old Vietcong flag, the only thing to do with any of the new Minnesota state flags is to take Paul Bunyan's Axe to any flagstaff flying it."

But when you're a politician in a failing jurisdiction run by Democrats, a flag redesign might be just the thing.  There has been a contest going on in Milwaukee for several years to do just that.  The proposed new design dates to before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the idea is the same, only it's the lake below and the sunrise above, rather than the steppes below and the sky above, with Japan's rising sun overlaid with three bars representing the three rivers.  Meaningless mod, I suppose.

"People's Flag of Milwaukee" image retrieved from Urban Milwaukee.

The redesign contest has been ongoing for some time, and even in failing Democratic jurisdictions, intersectional faction fighting is a thing.

Eight years after it was created, Milwaukee could finally be on the verge of adopting the People’s Flag as the official city flag.

But despite the fact that Robert Lenz“Sunrise over the Lake” flag is already flying in front of many homes, displayed on sports team uniforms and beer cans and embedded in all kinds of other places, approving the flag as a replacement for a 1950s flag derided as one of the worst in America isn’t being greeted with universal admiration.

The Steering & Rules Committee recommended adoption of the flag on a 5-3 vote Monday, with some members saying they just wanted to move on and others saying the community has already adopted it. The full council must next review it.

But Monday’s meeting reignited some of the same racial fault lines that ultimately doomed the 2018-2019 process to replace the city’s 1955 flag, a cluttered amalgamation of symbols, with the winner of a 2016 design contest.

That 1955 flag epitomizes Sewer Socialist Realism, and yes, it is cluttered, but then there are a lot of state and local flags with lots of stuff on them.

NO JOY FOR BILL MCKIBBEN.

Yesterday, we noted a recent column of his calling attention to the performance of renewable energy in California.  "The solar is on a path, in California, to provide more electricity than the natural gas plants. Whether that generalizes to other states remains to be seen, and with well-known businesses making a lot of noise as they leave California, there's going to be opportunity to write a lot of Minimal Publishable Units."

Hot Air's David Strom suggests that neither the renewables nor the transmission lines, you know, the ones Donald Trump wants to remove regulatory hurdles from future expansion thereof, are up to the job in California.

The only things "renewable" about energy generation in California are the supply of lies and the suffering being imposed on Californians.

Problems with the power grid in the state have been getting worse for years as Gavin Newsom and the Democrats keep pushing to electrify everything while simultaneously replacing reliable nuclear and fossil fuel electricity generation with so-called "renewable" energy.

The results have been horrific. Costs for consumers have skyrocketed, and the current grid is creaking under the weight of multiple and conflicting requirements and consumers can no longer count on electricity being delivered to their homes and businesses.

Indeed. Once upon a time, Bugs Bunny could bring the Hollywood Bowl down.

Now, the Hollywood Bowl can't even put on a performance.

The power went out in Hollywood because it’s hot outside but everyone in California needs to buy an electric car and plug it into the grid by 2035. https://t.co/mWAsIJxaVq

— Storm (@stormrobinson) September 9, 2024

It's all too much for Mr Strom.

Heat waves don't knock out power. They increase the demand for it, and the failure to provide adequate generating capacity is the obvious cause of the current crisis--and of the rapidly increasing prices Californians are being forced to pay.

Blackouts and brownouts are now a fact of life in California, which creates a larger divide between the affluent who can afford home generators, solar power with battery storage and those who really don't care whether they are paying what seems to them to be a pittance for power.

The middle class, though, can't afford any of this. They are expected to grin and bear it, and too many of them accept the "climate change" explanation that justified these ridiculous policies in the first place.

All this is happening at the same time that Newsom and company demand that everything be electrified. Cars, heating and stoves will all be electric, but there will be no electricity to be found except for the wealthy. Rest assured that the climate cultists will have no problem cooling their homes, charging their EVs, and having their personal chefs cook on their electric stoves or smuggled gas ranges.

He also notes, "California is the model for the country the Democrats want to build, and they aren't even shy about saying so."  Let the California Democrats and Bill McKibben and the like build their experimental communities among themselves, and let me be part of the control group.

Or let me be part of an experimental community that bets more heavily on emergence, and let them suffer in their control group.

STEAM TRAINS STILL CONNECT PEOPLE.

Five years ago, Union Pacific observed the sesquicentennial of its Golden Spike by restoring a Big Boy to steaming condition and sending it around their system.  Wherever he went, the spectators followed.

The tours resumed this summer, with 4014 performing along the former Chicago and North Western and Chicago and Eastern Illinois lines.  The only protracted stop in Illinois was at Rochelle, where the railroad hoped there would be space for the expected crowds.  Big Boy drew large crowds in West Chicago in 2019, and something like sixty thousand spectators jammed the roads around the Global III intermodal yard west of Rochelle for a look.

Unattributed WIFR-TV photograph.

My younger self might have walked from a legal parking space three blocks from the Rochelle Railroad Park into the viewing area.  My current self was happy to wander over to the park for a custard cone and some conversation with train enthusiasts from near and far.

Some interesting diesels turned up on the freight trains that kept running.

Monday morning, Union Pacific scheduled a stop at the Railroad Park from 8.45 or so to 9 am.  My past experiences with Rochelle traffic on Big Boy days suggested that I could either observe it stationary there with the crowds or brew a leisurely large cup of coffee and observe from downtown DeKalb.  The coffee won.  I later did a screen grab from a Rochelle rail camera.

Train watching conditions were pretty good.  The corner of Lincoln Highway and Fourth Street was a popular place to set up, that's somebody bracing a tablet to do some recording.  Many of the spectators were from far away, one family wondering how long it would take the train to get to DeKalb.  

My reckoning, about 16 miles, up Creston Hill from a dead stop, train limited to about fifty for safety reasons, figure 9.30 or so if all goes well, but we are dealing with a railroad ... and good luck if you set up on the opposite side and a freight train comes your way.

None of those dire consequences happened, and just before 9.30, Extra 4014 East with 4015 assisting if required rolled through town, with somebody from Union Pacific recording the spectators.

That's a screen grab from the movie I made.  The movie might be available later this week.  Big Boy has since made the move to the former C&EI tracks, headed southwesterly.  After the train had passed, a family that had seen Big Boy in Rochelle rolled into DeKalb wondering when they were due.  Sorry, you can't chase a train along 38 or try to get ahead of it on 88, unless it gets held at an interlocking.

TOUCHDOWN JESUS BLESSED THESE BONES.

It is the custom in the Mid-American Conference to refer to a football victory over a Power Five team as a dog bone.

The latest sighting of this flag took place in South Bend, Indiana.

Before the game, head coach Thomas Hammock, who played for Northern Illinois some years ago, told student sports reporters he was approaching the game as a business trip.  “Play the way we know how to play.”

GOVERNMENT IS NOT THE SOLUTION TO OUR PROBLEMS.

Doomsday environmentalist Bill McKibben sees the sun shining in.  "We desperately need clean energy now."  His essay, though, is about anything but desperation.

In 2014, solar power “utility-scale solar provided a mere 9.25 GW (0.75%) of total installed US generating capacity.” Which is to say, less than one percent. But “by the middle of 2024, installed solar capacity had risen to 8.99% of total utility-scale capacity.”  (Add another few percent for rooftop distributed solar).

That still sounds like a relatively small percentage—under ten percent. But in fact what it means is that we’ve finally moved on to the steep part of an S curve, and if we can keep up anything like that pace of expansion it won’t be long before the numbers are truly incredible.

Count me among the skeptics. That "S curve" reference is to a logistic diffusion model, which is to say a market-based phenomenon that used to be grist for the applied economics mill.  What the government subsidizes, it gets more of, and in the past few years there's been a lot of printed money thrown at solar farms, and with a lot of that rooftop distributed solar being promoted by power companies, it's possible that the diffusion curve will flatten shortly.  There's evidence to the contrary from California, but California isn't Illinois or Minnesota or Alaska.

When something that provides one percent of your electricity doubles to two percent, that doesn’t mean much—but when something that supplies ten or twenty percent goes up by a third that’s actually quite a lot.  And more the next year.

For a long while, you could see this growth coming, but it hadn’t yet added up to enough to materially dent the use of coal and gas and oil. But that is starting to change. Here’s the most important number I can give you, supplied to me this afternoon by Stanford professor Mark Jacobson, who has been keeping careful track of the California electric grid. As I wrote earlier, it’s been moving to renewable energy faster than almost anywhere in the country.

The solar is on a path, in California, to provide more electricity than the natural gas plants.  Whether that generalizes to other states remains to be seen, and with well-known businesses making a lot of noise as they leave California, there's going to be opportunity to write a lot of Minimal Publishable Units.

But in the middle of another scare story about Donald Trump, Mr McKibben inadvertently suggests that the best thing for the government to do is to go away.

All this is the premise for understanding why the fossil fuel industry is so freaked out about this year’s election. They can read these charts as easily as anyone, and they know what’s coming. If it keeps happening at this pace, it will quickly start reducing demand for their products—they have vast reserves of, say, natural gas in the Permian Basin that will stay there forever simply because there’s no market. They have to lock in customers right now, or else watch their whole business start to slowly, and then quickly, fade. And with that fade will come, inevitably, reduced political power. Right now they can still frighten politicians—hence the fact that Kamala Harris, with Pennsylvania on the line, has to insist she supports fracking. But four years from now, not so much.

And if Trump wins, there’s tons that he can do to slow the transition down. He can’t “kill wind,” as he has promised. But he can make it impossible for it to keep growing at the same rate—right now there are teams in the White House managing every single big renewable project, trying to lower the regulatory hurdles that get in the way of new transmission lines, for instance.

I'd be more sympathetic to his argument about diffusion if he offered similar evidence from Pennsylvania.  Or Texas.  And that bit about "regulatory hurdles?"  What good does a productive solar farm in a desert do if there's no economical way to send it to a server farm or a steel minimill or to move intermodal trains with it?  As far as that "reduced political power?"  Can you say rent-seeking, dear reader?  Maybe those libertarians with their silly notion that the best thing for government to do is to go away have a point.  It's within Mr McKibben's grasp, too.  "Economics insures that cheap power will eventually win out."

So mote it be.

A SAILING SESQUICENTENNIAL.

Late in August, 1874, General Phil Sheridan went on a fishing trip into Wisconsin.  He mentioned that he'd enjoy seeing a sailboat race.  On Wisconsin's inland lakes, the well-off had been sailing for bragging rights almost as soon as statehood, and the local sandbagger sailors were more than willing to show off for the general.

That's a modern rendition of a sandbagger, so named because crews shifted bags of sand from one side to the other to give the sloop the proper heel.  What happened to "flat is fast?"  Only demonstrating the folly of a rule governing waterline length.  If you can build a boat with a short waterline when she's flat and a longer waterline when she's heeled, you have more waterline length, and you're faster.

Everybody had so much fun that the local sailors had ideas to hold the race each August, and hopes that the general would return to award the trophy.  The local sailors commissioned a silversmith to create a replica of the winning yacht, Nettie, and made plans to race on or as close to August 31, the day of the initial race.  The general, however, had other plans, some of them involving a twentyish civilian aide in the quartermaster's department, and as far as I know did not observe any more races on Geneva Lake.

The sailors, on the other hand, had a trophy, and a race to race, and the Lake Geneva Yacht Club, which became a corporate entity later, treats the Sheridan Race as the act inspiring its founding.  August 31 was a Saturday, and the tradition continued.

The Race Committee is in proper period attire for the event.  Fortunately, the weather wasn't dog-days-of-August hot.  By tradition, the race starts and ends off the club pier, you know, just in case a cavalry commander shows up and he's willing to award the trophy.

In place of the sandbaggers, the A Scows, which is to say, the largest of the Inland scows, race.  The scow honors the sandbagger principle in that it is sailed heeled, which means less wetted surface and a longer waterline, and when one is on her lines, she's fast.

Five yachts raced, here they are maneuvering to start, which is between the blue flag on the pier and the yellow can floating close to where two skippers are jockeying for the pin end, which is in better air.  A few vintage launches still sail Geneva Lake, and at the pier, a Melges 15 is about to sail out to its race, being set up mid-lake off Black Point.

The race course was a modified windward-leeward, sail toward Fontana, then sail toward the Narrows, then sail back to the yacht club.  One skipper opted out, and the fleet separated into two match races.  Here come the leaders to finish.

Yes, the wind conditions were challenging, and yes, it being Labor Day weekend, the powerboats were out churning the lake, and both pairs of races were won by the skipper who stayed to the south shore on the leg home.  Those are carbon-fiber sails.  The A scow is in the class of racing yachts where if you have to ask what it costs, you might be wise to consider the smaller scows.

The latter-day sandbagger came alongside the pier at left for a while.  She has inboard power, something that might have intrigued General Sheridan.  The smaller one-design races (C and MC scows and the Melges 15 fleet) are done for the day and the club flagship is secured on her lift.

FRIDAY short TAKES.

Professional football is back.

The weekly round-up of pithy elaborations on traditional Cold Spring Shops themes follows.

CALLING ATTENTION.

As the students headed back to school, we called attention to an open letter for active and retired academicians to endorse voting Republican.  The Militant Normals are beginning to notice, with The College Fix calling attention to the letter, and Glenn "Insta Pundit" Reynolds calling attention to The College Fix post.  The list of signatories is still at 51, which is where it was as of Monday.

I repeat, there is little in the trade policies of either major party to reassure me, and that it is the continued dishonesty of the Democrats and their enablers among the creatives that is reason for that party to be out of power for a generation.  But if "less bad" is persuasive, by all means, sign the letter if you are eligible, and make sure to vote for "less bad" as the opportunity arises.

A GOOD DISSERTATION IS A DONE DISSERTATION.

The most difficult part of writing a dissertation is being "almost done."  There is always one more reference to check, one more line of code to edit, one more advisor to appease, or perhaps one more sunny day to devote to mental health.  And thus the status of A.B.D. is one of the more ambiguous to bring to the job meetings.

Then there's serial fabulist Tim Walz.  It's not enough that he's claimed a rank he never completed training for, and that he was defensive coordinator at that Mankato high school.  Tom Landry was defensive coordinator for the New York Giants, but that's not what we know him best for.  (That would be losing to the Packers.)

Now, he apparently included being A.B.D. from St. Mary's (of Minnesota, not the sports school in California) for a few years.  "Walz was only enrolled at Saint Mary's University of Minnesota until 2004 but said until 2011 that he was close to getting his doctorate."

LET'S PUT ANOTHER PIN IN THIS ONE.

The opening three months of the 2024 hurricane season turned out to be extraordinary, in a boring sort of way.

As of today, it is still Nichts Neues im Osten.

National Hurricane Center graphic retrieved from NOAA.

 

"Remarkably quiet."

The Atlantic has had no named storm formations since #Ernesto on August 12. The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm formations between August 13 - September 3 was in 1968. The remarkably quiet period for Atlantic #hurricane activity continues. pic.twitter.com/pLqE7I5PHn

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 3, 2024

But The Narrative must be sustained.

Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a very active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024.

One of the explanations for the lack of storm systems forming in the Atlantic Basin in recent weeks is due to the Saharan Dust moving across the Atlantic Ocean, scientists say. Large Saharan dust outbreaks brought widespread, intense plumes of dust and lots of dry air across the tropical Atlantic during July and much of August, Ed Nowottnick, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, told ABC News.

Tropical waves have been exiting the African continent so far north that they have been pulling in lots of dust and dry air, limiting their chances for development, according to researchers at tropical weather experts at Colorado State University.

What would we ever do without experts?  There's still a lot of hurricane season to run, and Saharan dust is as good an ad-hoc explanation as any for the time being.  We still have to be afraid.

Below-average activity remains likely over the next two weeks, according to tropical weather experts at Colorado State University. However, the seasonal forecast remains on track to be above average in the end, after a couple more weeks of usually quiet conditions, they said.

Towards the middle of the month, large-scale environmental conditions look to become more favorable for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.

Multiple tropical disturbances are currently being monitored for potential development in the Atlantic Basin. But, the latest update from the National Hurricane Center indicates that they all have a low chance of development over the next seven days.

There are still no major concerns or threats at this time.

Well, no, as long as the grant money keeps coming, and as long as the review boards approving the grants hew to their priors, the experts will continue to recite the party line.  There might even be another anomaly in the top drawer ready to refer to.

Numerous factors play an important role in tropical cyclone activity and a seasonal outlook. This year, the end of El Niño giving way to a developing La Niña event in the equatorial eastern Pacific, near-record warm ocean temperatures across much of the Atlantic Basin, and above-average African monsoon activity were all primary reasons for this forecast.

We'll revisit this story after Oktoberfest.

YOU CAN'T HAVE MALAISE WITHOUT LA MALA.

Somebody in the ditzy valley girl's entourage, er, K-hive, thought a new meme might fire up the groupies.

It certainly has amused the Militant Normals.

Then they tried to translate the MALA to "Make America Love Again," which is basically trying to rip off former President Donald Trump's MAGA structure. Harris herself has already tried to rip off his policy positions such as calling for "no tax on tips." Trump is literally living rent-free in her head as her team seems to be looking for him for things like this. She doesn't seem to want to put out there her own positions in clear fashion, and she still has no policy positions on her website. She's trying to get into office without being concise on any of those thoughts, likely because if she put out her real positions, Americans would know "how bad" they truly were. 

Plus, if you break it as Victor is doing: Ka-mala, that's improperly pronouncing her name and we've all been told that's racist, so that's bad, Victor, so bad. It's supposed to be pronounced Kama-la.

But all they have is empty slogans. All they can try to do is sell some kind of empty "joy" because they don't have anything else to offer the American people, at least not anything that would be good for the country. If they have to rely on their record, Kamala is up a creek without a paddle because they've failed on so many things, including the border and the economy, two issues that are paramount to voters.

Plus "mala" means "tiny" in Russian, and "lousy" in Spanish.  "Hey, it fits Kamala so who are we to argue, you know?"

Pronounce Kamala as ¡Que Mala!

It translates to how bad!

(Overhead yesterday)

— Roxanne Hoge (@RoxanneHoge) August 11, 2024

I prefer to phrase "how bad" as a question, but, then, Build Back Better ... isn't.

ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

No matter how your day is going, it could always be worse.  You could be a writer for Common Dreams.  "There's generally a recent Common Dreams column available to provide comic relief on what is turning into an unedifying election season."

A PENNY FOR THE OLD GUY?

According to one list of anniversary names, the 22nd is the Copper Anniversary.

It was 22 years ago that Cold Spring Shops launched, with an objective, sort of, to document things economic, and in the academy, and things that run on rails.

I cannot claim to have moved the needle much on higher ed's self-immolation, but I have enough F. U. money not to care.

Nor am I much encouraged by politicians rediscovering antitrust doctrines I thought were long dead and buried.

But more passenger trains are getting free rein to 110, which is good.

THE INSURGENCY CONTINUES TO SIMMER.

Last year's observation, "County fairs are instructive venues when it comes to symbols of the Normals' discontent with their Intellectual Betters."

I did not make it to as many county fairs this summer, nor, at the ones I attended, did I pay as much attention to the protest flags.  They are still there, represented by this tent at last weekend's Walworth County Fair.

I see fewer Gadsden militia or Army of Northern Virginia battle flags on offer, and the invocations of Brandon are overtaken by events.  Perhaps a Trump flag of some form is the most straightforward way of signalling your discontent.  Some of them get interesting, at right the legend reads "Jesus is my Saviour, Trump is my President."

SPOT THE REAL PRESIDENT.

The beach-going Joe Biden's election as president was certified by Congress on January 6, 2021.

When the sitting president is unable to carry out his duties, those are temporarily undertaken by the vice-president.

In fact, the sitting vice president is doing everything she can to run for president as a candidate of change, implicitly confirming precisely that picture's message.

BEFORE THE FREE FREAK SHOW ON THE CAMPUS QUADRANGLE.

Oh, I could get in trouble for that!  "The fever swamps of the Perpetually Aggrieved are perpetually entertaining, and you don't even have to toss the barker a quarter whenever you want a look, there are curiosities only a click away."  Indeed, even calling attention could get me in trouble!  "It's the ultimate post-modern sideshow, in which all of the words on the bannerline are triggering, or micro-aggressive."

In any event, once upon a time the itinerant circus brought the curiosities to town, for you to gawk at, and all for a quarter.  "On a purchasing-power adjusted basis, is a ticket to a Britney Spears ticket cheaper than a ticket to the late nineteenth century P. T. Barnum sideshow?"

Not too long ago, though, the Winnebago County Fair set up for its weekend run, and along the paths leading to the grandstand for the rodeo or tractor pull there was an honest-to-Clyde Beatty bannerline!

No extra charge to wander in and have a look.

Exotic, fossilized life form, perhaps from outer space, or stone idol carved with primitive tools?  You decide.

For years, P. T. Barnum's Fejee Mermaid was thought to have been lost in the fire at his Coney Island Hall of Curiosities.  Well, no, he had sold that to an east coast collector, and it now tours with this exhibit.  Or not.  That furry fish behind?  Apparently insulating scales confer evolutionary advantage in polar water, although if fish are cold-blooded, well, this is a sideshow exhibit.

A POSITIVE CASE FOR VOTING REPUBLICAN.

I will not vote for any Democrats this year, or perhaps ever again, because of the lawfare, the corruption, and the party's disregard for bourgeois norms.

Now comes Powerline contributor Steven Hayward, calling attention to an endorsement by professors of the Republican presidential ticket.

We believe that, by and large, it is bad to governmentalize social affairs, and that it is good to degovernmentalize social affairs. One must oppose undue centralization in the economic realm but also threats to the precious rights of free association, religious liberty, and free speech.

We believe that Republicans are, in most instances, less inclined to governmentalize, and more inclined to degovernmentalize, than Democrats. Republicans are less inclined to threaten fundamental liberties. That is one reason why we believe that Republicans should be favored over Democrats.

I'm not sure how one can square "degovernmentalize social affairs" with both parties actively governmentalizing abortion policy at the national level these days; and "fundamental liberties" are very much a contested part of what "freedom" means these days.  That noted, it is the Jarrett regency that has been introducing ever more centralization in the economic realm whilst undermining religious liberty in the name of public health and undermining free speech under the rubric of suppressing "misinformation."  And yes, Democrats bypassing the presidential primaries in three straight cycles does look like an inclination to threaten fundamental liberties, if that Independence Hall speech as staged by Albert Speer and filmed by Leni Riefenstahl wasn't warning enough.

THAT PESKY CONSTITUTION.

Today's recommended post comes from Mitch "Shot in the Dark" Berg, who opens a post so titled with "Freedom.  It’s such a big deal, our “elites” don’t think you can be trusted with it."

He embeds two useful social media posts.  First comes the latest attempt to discredit the Federal Constitution.

They assured us they cared about the Constitution

I guess they lied pic.twitter.com/hl4XxuJyBD

— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) September 2, 2024

The collection of headlines features the usual suspects as well as the predictably lame attempts at both-sides do it.

Later comes the ditzy valley girl, apparently afraid of the proposition that the correct answer to difficult speech is more speech.

“They are directly speaking to millions & millions of people without oversight.”

Exactly. That’s free speech. No oversight by government bureaucrats. @jaketapper looks genuinely dumbfounded that this could possibly be her actual position. pic.twitter.com/yOSMq0rMfx

— Jennifer Sey (@JenniferSey) September 3, 2024

That's from former Levi's executive Jennifer Sey, who is undergoing a slow-motion mugging by reality that started when the cancel mob came after her for questioning the corona tyranny.  She's currently at the "The Democrats left me" stage of her maturation.

Mr Berg concludes, "Democrats are warning me democracy itself is at stake.  I guess they’re right."  Well, yes, they've been saying the quiet part out loud for some time.

A DEMOCRATIC OPERATIVE HAS A GLASS MAN-JAW.

One salutary consequence of the emergence of populist Republicans over the past thirty years is that the Sunday shows are no longer safe spaces for Conventional Wisdom.  That's good, because Conventional Wisdom has meant the squandering of the Victory Dividend in nation building wars and buying off of favored constituencies.

Sometimes, that emergence makes for compelling television.  "A pretty embarrassing slip by NBC News' Kristen Welker yesterday. Sen. Tom Cotton was a guest on NBC's Meet the Press and he had several feisty exchanges with Welker over the course of the 15 minute interview."  It used to be that when one of those Sunday moderators recited a Democrat talking point, the squishy Republicans they'd have on would kinda-sorta go along to get along.  Senator Cotton, not so much.

The moderator, whose interviewing style is off-putting even without the truculent chipmunk's pen in hand, was so flummoxed she, in that exaggerated chewing mode of speaking, twice repeated a falsehood.  "Welker thought she was fact-checking Sen. Cotton but in the end, she got fact-checked by her own show."  I wonder if the Militant Normals should boycott Meet the Press until the moderator opens with a public Act of Contrition.  Until then, we'll have to make do with a confession by social media.

On our broadcast this morning, we incorrectly implied that both President Biden and Vice President Harris attended the dignified transfer of 13 American service members killed during the Afghanistan withdrawal. Biden was in attendance but Harris was not.

— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) September 1, 2024

The comments to that tweet are lit.  Sixty years ago, the major networks called attention to credibility gaps in Washington.  Today, they give Kramer and Thurston a run for their money creating credibility gaps.

YES, VIRGINIA, THERE ARE CRAZY CAT GENTS.

Predictably, one of them contributes to Common Dreams.

In about two months the season of national absurdity will conclude with the last episode of "End of Times Election Blues." It is rumored that a 15 second commercial spot on the show will cost more than the GDP of the poorest twenty five nations on earth. Don't trouble yourself to fact-check this—hyperbole often leads to higher truths.

The election itself will be anticlimactic—fascism has preceded its formal institution by (you choose the answer) months, years or decades. Nonetheless, people will be sweating, shaking and dying in front of their election night TVs and ambulances will be hauling away the dead. The voters have been stripped of their agency—reduced to passive spectators whose public lives effectively end at the moment they cast their ballots. Imagine fireflies or spawning salmon who die almost immediately following the conclusion of the mating/egg laying cycle. Once you check your ballot you've blown your wad—you no longer exist. In a voter's afterlife agency gives way to naked anxiety.

One might argue that people don't have to spawn and die like a row of delicatessen fish—they could rise up and throw off their proverbial chains. But that suggestion trivializes the entire narrative. We collectively leap into the abyss of fascism because our powers of comprehension have been viciously eroded—not a being among us has failed to watch a million hours of brain strangling advertisements.

Sometimes it is hard to distinguish the Heavy Irony from the Deepest Earnestness.  The column is all about the Deepest Earnestness.

We—the disassembled, the lobotomized, the blinded—have a mandate to collective rage that no other generations ever owned. We are some of the last living beings on a long and noble planet that has been blooming and renewing for a half a billion years. The question is this: how badly can we be wounded and still have the capacity to rebel? And what does rebellion mean? I believe that the cornerstone of resistance proceeds from a single question—how fucked are we if no force intercedes to prevent the current political momentum of the U.S. from continuing. Newton said it best—a body in motion remains in motion until acted upon by another force. The election cycle, I believe, should be seen as a mass blessing for Newtonian principles—we vote to ratify our place in the corporate orbit, our approval of capitalist momentum.

It's amusing, though, to read an essay that might not even encouraging the communist wing of the Democrats to vote for the Jarrett regency and then continue arguing with it.

We have a critical election in which we will choose whether to elect a fully fascist administration to drive us into the downtown district of hell on the expressway, or we can elect a regime to buoy us up with slogans while chauffeuring us pleasantly to the exact same hell.

The choice is not who to vote for, but what do you (we) do after the votes are counted and we reelect capitalism with the 99 percent approval rating that a North Korean strongman expects. If Trump is elected we risk being shot protesting or shipped to one of the concentration camps he has vowed to build. If Harris is elected we are likely to be seduced by the mass psychotic delusion that will have us believing that the environment is in good hands while your tax dollars go steadfastly to building the "most lethal" fighting force in human history.

The plot for the final act in the history of the biosphere seems pretty obvious—either people engage in unprecedented acts of civil disobedience, or we all die. We now have an important electoral choice—we either elect a regime that will intimidate those committed to civil disobedience with threats and violence, or we elect a regime that will disarm public ire with bullshit and reassurances. The choice is a non-choice. The real choice comes after the election.

Without even the opportunity to pet your emotional support cat.  Oh, wait, there is no such animal.